Bastardi's winter forecast for mid-atlantic misleading ?

[Pileus]

The local media here in Charlotte have latched on to Joe Bastardi's 09-10 winter forecast for much below normal temps and above normal snowfall for the mid-atlantic to Carolinas. I can understand above normal precipitation due to El-Nino, but looking at graphics I see temps staying near average for winter in regions NW of us. How can you forecast above normal snowfall without CP air masses digging south? Is this Bastardi's usual hype?

[HURAKAN]

NOAA Winter Forecast : http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... tlook.html

[Dionne]

Being on the south western edge of the >40% cooler......I would say he is correct so far.....we've already had our first frost (yesterday morning)....definitely early.

[shibumi]

The local media here in Charlotte have latched on to Joe Bastardi's 09-10 winter forecast for much below normal temps and above normal snowfall for the mid-atlantic to Carolinas. I can understand above normal precipitation due to El-Nino, but looking at graphics I see temps staying near average for winter in regions NW of us. How can you forecast above normal snowfall without CP air masses digging south? Is this Bastardi's usual hype?

These maps can be misleading...it's departure from normal don't forget....really if the cold air IS delivered south corresponding warmup happens much faster upstream and they average out warmer....whereas we get the cold air delivery and we are cooler....

If the cold air stays bottled up, the northern US stays cold and we stay warm...

Think about this..often when it is frigid in the southeast, we are actually colder than temps in North Dakota...

[jinftl]

Here in florida, the forecast is for below normal temps. Does that suggest a season of potential big freezes and arctic invasions? Not necessarily, esp when the location where our arctic outbreaks originate (northern plains), is forecast to be above normal. In the case of Florida, el nino winters typically do see below normal temps due mainly to the increase in cloudcover and rainfall as compared to normal. This keeps daytime temps lower. What is interesting is that the data shows that during el nino winters, the nighttimes are close to average in terms of temps. By looking at that map, it isn't entirely obvious that such a scenario is what is being forecast.

Maps like this are oversimplified....temps vary from day to day and even a 'cold' winter compared to normal has periods of warmer weather. A greater than 40% chance of below normal temps means up to a 59.99% chance of normal or above normal temps. It's just of the 3 outcomes possible...above, normal, below....below carries the highest weight of the 3. But not sure putting it in terms of a 42% chance of below normal, 32% chance of normal, and 26% chance of above normal (as an example) is quite as newsworthy.

The local media here in Charlotte have latched on to Joe Bastardi's 09-10 winter forecast for much below normal temps and above normal snowfall for the mid-atlantic to Carolinas. I can understand above normal precipitation due to El-Nino, but looking at graphics I see temps staying near average for winter in regions NW of us. How can you forecast above normal snowfall without CP air masses digging south? Is this Bastardi's usual hype?

These maps can be misleading...it's departure from normal don't forget....really if the cold air IS delivered south corresponding warmup happens much faster upstream and they average out warmer....whereas we get the cold air delivery and we are cooler....

If the cold air stays bottled up, the northern US stays cold and we stay warm...

Think about this..often when it is frigid in the southeast, we are actually colder than temps in North Dakota...