Development in the SW Caribbean?

[gatorcane]

GFS for the past several runs is showing some broad area of low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in the 8-10 day timeframe. The 12Z shows a tropical system in fact. The 00Z ECMWF run shows the low now at 240 hours. CMC 12Z shows a low also.

Looking at the long-range forecasts across the GOM/Caribbean, a summer-time pattern appears to be in place for the forseeable future. We have yet to have that "season ending" cold front hit the GOM and Caribbean yet. With that said, and the fact we see some models showing something in the SW Caribbean, may be worth watching this area.

12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

00Z ECMWF:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

12Z CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Derek Ortt]

I think we'll have to wait until next season

GFS really only shows a broad low... maybe a weak TD. CMC shows nothing

even if there was model agreement, there was supposed to be a hurricane striking Miami around this time... where is the hurricane?

[wxman57]

Yeah, I'm sure the GFS is right THIS time in the 15-day forecast.

[tailgater]

Man this forum is getting old

[Macrocane]

After the false alarm that the reliable Euro caused last week I don't buy any development on the Atlantic. Maybe if we see model support for at least an entire week, but at this time I'm more reluctant to believe than I've ever been.

[lonelymike]

GFS for the past several runs is showing some broad area of low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in the 8-10 day timeframe. The 12Z shows a tropical system in fact. The 00Z ECMWF run shows the low now at 240 hours. CMC 12Z shows a low also.

Looking at the long-range forecasts across the GOM/Caribbean, a summer-time pattern appears to be in place for the forseeable future. We have yet to have that "season ending" cold front hit the GOM and Caribbean yet. With that said, and the fact we see some models showing something in the SW Caribbean, may be worth watching this area.

12Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

00Z ECMWF:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9042312!!/

12Z CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Uh yeah it was in the 40's this weekend in the panhandle

[jinftl]

Today's update from Dr. Jeff Master's...

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry.

However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.

[Derek Ortt]

what Masters forgot to mention was those years were la nina(ish) years

[wxman57]

I'd disagree with him on the shear issue. If anything, it seems higher than typically for this time of year. And the Caribbean has been (and is) far more hostile an environment than in any of the years he mentioned. Can't absolutely rule out development, but I see nothing to indicate that the Caribbean will suddenly get more favorable for development.

[boca]

Didn't we just go thru the fantasy storm from the models in the SW Caribbean last week its getting old.Bring on the cold fronts.

[jinftl]

Not sure Dr. M's analysis of conditions next week suggests Wilma Part 2...in fact, when he says moisture would support ts development, it may be a leap to go from 'supporting development' to inferring 'forecasting development'.

However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then... Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean.

If something is going to get going this time of year....and the odds may be low this season of that....I think folks can universally agree that the western and nw caribbean would be the place it would develop. So what Dr. Masters is saying is nothing that couldn't be said every late October.

Didn't we just go thru the fantasy storm from the models in the SW Caribbean last week its getting old.Bring on the cold fronts.

[boca]

In order for something to develop in the caribbean you need a trigger.A cold front that pushes into the caribbean which interacts with a tropical wave.I don't see anything that would potentially develop down there. Under the current pattern cold fronts stall along the gulf coast which leaves the GOM,caribbean and Atlantic under high pressure which causes substenance.Not gonna happen this year.

[Sanibel]

I doubt you will see any Storm2k members losing any bets and having to fairy dance in a pink tutu in public this year.

[gatorcane]

The low begins forming out around 240-260 hours. The 18Z at 252 hours is here, showing the system forming in the SW Caribbean and creeping northward. Of course the 18Z and 6Z are not run with the full amount of data, but even looking at the 00Z and 12Z from today and the past few days, it continues to show a big surge in moisture with some broad low in the SW Carib out around 10 days from now. Let's see if other models respond.

18Z (252 hours)


18Z (324 hours):

[wxman57]

Didn't we just go thru the fantasy storm from the models in the SW Caribbean last week its getting old.Bring on the cold fronts.

Yes, but this time the GFS HAS to be right!

GFS develops these fantasy SW Caribbean storms quite often early in the season (or pre-season) and late in the season.

[Sanibel]

Look at the satellite shot. You can see the big dome of negativity has settled back over the Caribbean/West Basin again.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS jumps on board in a big way.

I'm noticing some tropical waves heading west towards the WCAR from the Central Atlantic. It appears development is possible so will be watching the SW Carib:

Here we are at only 180 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

and here is 276 hours as it moves north:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[wxman57]

12Z GFS gave up on the fantasy storm and develops a much weaker low. It really does have this problem a lot in the SW Caribbean in May/June and late season. It sees the general low pressure and thunderstorms there and makes too much of it.

[Derek Ortt]

12Z CMC shows a fairly intense cyclone there. GFS shows it in the EPAC

[Blown Away]

00Z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation