WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#341 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:06 am

dexterlabio wrote:JMA is about to upgrade 23W into a tropical storm in some hours. It will be named Mirinae.

<Analyses at 27/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°25'(14.4°)
E144°35'(144.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 28/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

It seems that the forecast track is beginning to move a little to the north. Still, its projected path is very near to the metropolis.

Here's latest satfix from JTWC:

TPPN10 PGTW 270306

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 27/0230Z

C. 14.6N

D. 144.6E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2334Z 14.2N 145.3E AMSU


SMITH


It's supposed to that.....Based on the forecast, The system will move wnw first and then after reaching the peak, it should move wsw......
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

#342 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:08 am

We shall all wait and see. We have become very impatient the last couple of storms. lets jus tsee what it will do and hope for the best
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#343 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:12 am

As I said, I will be more comfortable with the forecast to be posted tomorrow. If the forecast tomorrow or the following day will be consistent with all the current predictions, then we got a real big problem.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#344 Postby metenthusiast » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:45 am

Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Image
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

#345 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:49 am

That's the GFS model....I'm not sure how reliable they are though......
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

#346 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:53 am

Most forecast is still showing a direct hit on central luzon.............
0 likes   

User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:

Re:

#347 Postby metenthusiast » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:53 am

oaba09 wrote:That's the GFS model....I'm not sure how reliable they are though......


I think they're the first one to deviate and plot the re-curve with Lupit, though I'm still leaning more with the JTWC forecast track...
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#348 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:01 am

metenthusiast wrote:Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Image



Hmmm. They are saying that the ridge on the north at the mean time is zonal. I dunno what that implies but I think that is bringing 23W well to the west. Well, there are a lot of possibilities, but for us here in the Philippines, the best thing we can hope for is a recurve. We don't want to see more devastation in the southern and central luzon, as well as in the northern regions.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#349 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:05 am

metenthusiast wrote:Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Image


Also...this was taken from weather underground but if you check their actual 5 day forecast, it's still pretty similar w/ JTWC....
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#350 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:06 am

GFS on top
CMC below..

Anyone who knows where to get a european model???

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#351 Postby metenthusiast » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:09 am

dexterlabio wrote:
metenthusiast wrote:Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Image



Hmmm. They are saying that the ridge on the north at the mean time is zonal. I dunno what that implies but I think that is bringing 23W well to the west. Well, there are a lot of possibilities, but for us here in the Philippines, the best thing we can hope for is a recurve. We don't want to see more devastation in the southern and central luzon, as well as in the northern regions.


I think this would happen if the STR to northwest would fail rebuild or strengthen from TAU 48 thru 72. From what I understand on jtwc's prognostic reasoning, the lifting of a mid-latitude trough and the rebuilding of the STR would be the key factor that would drive the system westward.

"Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#352 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:22 am

metenthusiast wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:
metenthusiast wrote:Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Image



Hmmm. They are saying that the ridge on the north at the mean time is zonal. I dunno what that implies but I think that is bringing 23W well to the west. Well, there are a lot of possibilities, but for us here in the Philippines, the best thing we can hope for is a recurve. We don't want to see more devastation in the southern and central luzon, as well as in the northern regions.


I think this would happen if the STR to northwest would fail rebuild or strengthen from TAU 48 thru 72. From what I understand on jtwc's prognostic reasoning, the lifting of a mid-latitude trough and the rebuilding of the STR would be the key factor that would drive the system westward.

"Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."


Basically, for this to happen, the system needs to start heading NW continuously in the coming hours...We'll see later what JTWC's model indicates.......
0 likes   

User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#353 Postby metenthusiast » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:25 am

Image
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

#354 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:32 am

The eye is starting to form......
0 likes   

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1496
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

#355 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:33 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
metenthusiast
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 271
Age: 48
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 1:09 am
Location: Manila, Phllippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#356 Postby metenthusiast » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:45 am

Image

Potential howler...
0 likes   

User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:

#357 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:52 am

Guys, I know I don't have to say this, but things are not looking good. I'd watch closely until Thursday and then start making plans and preparations for a safe location to ride this thing out.
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TS 23W)

#358 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:56 am

latest ECMWF models

Image

Image

Image

still consistent with its forecast yesterday. models change every 12 hours so the room is still open for all possibilities...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3468
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re:

#359 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:00 am

drdavisjr wrote:Guys, I know I don't have to say this, but things are not looking good. I'd watch closely until Thursday and then start making plans and preparations for a safe location to ride this thing out.


I am supposed to visit cemetery this friday to prepare for the All Saint's Day, but since we are under the threat of 23W, I am not certain if I can still go by that date.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
drdavisjr
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 428
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 7:07 am
Location: Marilao, Bulacan, Philippines
Contact:

#360 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:00 am

Taken from http://www.Typhoon200.ph

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a Westerly track on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon (215 kph) more or less 200 km. North of Camarines Sur...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday evening - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests