WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[HURAKAN]

Yeah, that's a typhoon

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 714
WTPQ21 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0921 MIRINAE (0921) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 15.9N 140.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 140NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 16.1N 134.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 291800UTC 16.0N 129.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 301800UTC 15.5N 124.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

The eye is in the center of the CDO meaning its a well organized system..

[cycloneye]

First visible shows the eye well.

[JTE50]

Jeff,Pocillo Island may be ground zero for you to chase as the tracks continue to go that way.The problem is if the tracks change at the last minute and you only get hot air.I think that is better for you to be in Luzon and decide there where to go.

Agreed. Much better to move north and south adjusting position as needed. You can do that with Islands here in the WPac vs. Islands in the Caribbean that tend to run east-west. Getting to the west coast of the Philippines on rain soaked roads dirt roads will be a nightmare. I was on a hill here on Guam yesterday and pulled over to get a shot looking down on the airport and the Tumon Bay area. I stopped the car on the grass shoulder but it just kept going and there wasn't a guardrail either. I started sliding and turned the wheel all tlhe water to the left. I slid back onto the road luckily otherwise I would have gone down right off the edge - and it was a long ways down. Same thing in Saipan with Typhoon Melor a few weeks ago. I came around a corner going down a hill near Banzai Cliffs and the rainy crushed coral road was superslick even at 25 mph. I was going around the bend in the road and the car lost traction and just kept going around. I made a 270 degree spin out just missing a big tree. So you have to be super careful out in a storm. Many things can get you. -- Jim

[P.K.]

Up to 55kts.

WTPQ21 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0921 MIRINAE (0921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 16.1N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 15.9N 133.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 291800UTC 16.0N 129.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 301800UTC 15.5N 124.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[StormingB81]

Any chance for a recurve?

[cycloneye]

Eye also shows up in infared.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvoral T numbers continue to go up,now to 90kts.

27/2030 UTC 16.1N 139.4E T5.0/5.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[StormingB81]

Maybe I am crazy but looking at the possible tracks it looks almost like Lupit. Although Lupit turned away. Maybe this can do the same.

[KWT]

Looks like we probably have a RI Typhoon on our hands here, wouldn't shock me at all to see this get close to Super Typhoon status given the heat content its heading over in the next 24-36hrs.

[ozonepete]

SSD Dvoral T numbers continue to go up,now to 90kts.

27/2030 UTC 16.1N 139.4E T5.0/5.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Well ahead of the JTWC forecast by at least 20 knots. Wonder when they'll update their forecast. I'm with Derek on this one - at least 115-120 knots before it reaches the Philippine coast.

[expat2carib]

Looks like we probably have a RI Typhoon on our hands here, wouldn't shock me at all to see this get close to Super Typhoon status given the heat content its heading over in the next 24-36hrs.

Hi KWT,

Back on the board? I missed you in the last months. Did you forget to pay your ISP?

[oaba09]

This typhoon is just getting stronger and stronger.......This is bad for us.....

[jinftl]

Slight recurrve to the west-southwest it would appear (could come close to manila even)....latest forecast track:

Any chance for a recurve?

[StormingB81]

Wunderground.com track says it is going to go up and around PI. That would be good news for manilla. Just brushing the very north of PI.

[oaba09]

Wunderground.com track says it is going to go up and around PI. That would be good news for manilla. Just brushing the very north of PI.

That's a computer model I believe............I'm not sure but I think those computer models are not analyzed by people..

Here's the actual 5 day forecast from weather underground:

[StormingB81]

Just thinking positive...Lets hope the computer model is right.

[oaba09]

Just thinking positive...Lets hope the computer model is right.

As much as we'd like that.......I don't think that's possible because of STR...........I think it's blocking any polewards movement from MIRINAE

[metenthusiast]

Just thinking positive...Lets hope the computer model is right.

Wish I could do that. But based on this image and other forecast models, thinking realistic is more feasible at the moment