Caribbean - Central America Weather

[expat2carib]

Here it's been on and off rain. In the night and morning we had some thunder and lightning. Maybe some ,very few, moderate gusts. Now it's humid but calm.

A rainy day in paradise.

Just had a look at the radar and it looks like it's over now.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[Gustywind]

Here it's been on and off rain. In the night and morning some thunder and lightning. Maybe some ,very few, moderate gusts. Now it's humid but calm.

A rainy day in paradise.

Just had a look at the radar and it looks like it's over now.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Tkanks expat2carib, glad to see that all is ok . Nothing more here, things are calm since this afternoon. Whereas Meteo-France continue continue to maintain this yellow alert for the night mentionning a very moderate risk of showers and isolated tstorms...in spite of the apparent calm. Whereas i'm a bit amazed by the gust reported at 100 KM/H at la Désirade this morning. But i have seen that too in July 2004 when a very robust and powerfull twave crossed the EC. The locality of "Les Saintes" (just south of Basse-Terre) reported gusts up to 110 km/h under very "muscled" tstorms. The thunder was boombing tremendously all the night (at least 2 hours in my area) accompanied with numerous and amazing lightnings! That was a scary moment for many Guadeloupeans islanders. Many never slept a wink all night. All that noise was compared as if it was impacting the heart like an heart attack!
If i have much more info (a final confirmation) about that gustywind in La Désirade, i will keep you informed.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Showers are back here since 30 minutes, it's raining nicely... with some lightnings.

[expat2carib]

Thanks Gusty. Looks like the rain started again here. We need it so I'm not complaining.

[Gustywind]

Thanks Gusty. Looks like the rain started again here. We need it so I'm not complaining.

No problem my friend i understand, us too after the severe drought! Continue to keep us informed Expat2carib. I will continue too as possible.

[Gustywind]

Have a good night all my carib friends.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Good night to all the Caribbean friends.I leave with the latest discussion.


FXCA62 TJSJ 280239 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 PM AST TUE OCT 27 2009

.UPDATE...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...WILL AID TO INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER LOW
IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL PROMISE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR WEATHER SITUATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THEN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES
WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE WEAKENING ON
THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 60 WEST THIS
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH TKPK...TNCM...TISX AND TIST. FROM 28/17Z THROUGH
28/22Z...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL...WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF TJPS...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST WED OCT 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HISPANIOLA...EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 62 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE WESTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTED THE EASTERN
ADJACENT ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
REPORTED FROM THESE SHOWERS.

OUR LOCAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW...NOW LOCATED OVER THE HISPANIOLA. THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THESE TWO WEATHER FEATURE WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJMZ...AND
TJBQ...DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TISX..TISX...AND TJPS FROM 28/10Z
THROUGH 28/16Z. THEN...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY IN
THE VICINITY OF TJPS AND TJBQ...FROM 27/17Z THROUGH 27/22Z IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS
OF THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE WW3
SUGGEST A BIGGER AND MORE ORGANIZED SWELL FOR NOV 1...STAY TUNED.

[Gustywind]

We continue to be under this yellow alert this morning given Meteo-France. They said that amounts of water near 30 to 40 millimeters have been reported in many areas of the island. Moreover numerous tstorms are observed this morning.
That was a bit squally yesterday night in my locality, we experienced a mix of brief strong showers lightnings and tstorms, thunder activity. Same scenario this morning, with maybe improving weather conditions this afternoon. Let's wait and see.
I will continue to keep you informed.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
AND/OR ARE AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 14N
TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 87W.

...ITCZ...

7N11W 9N20W 12N28W 8N40W 8N50W 8N62W ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 6N TO
12N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND...TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.A.
GULF COAST STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA THROUGH THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 28/0600 UTC
WAS COLD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...AND THEN STATIONARY FROM THERE CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY AT 28/0900 UTC...AND IT APPEARS
TO BE STARTING TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ROLLING ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERING PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE AREA.
THE ONLY PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS NOT BEING COVERED
BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 87W.
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 17N74W TO THE SOUTH
OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
60W AND 80W...NOT COUNTING THE PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE NEAR
THE 62W/63W TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT IS MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE AREA OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS
JUST TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA AND TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA IS
BEING SHOT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND 9N IN COLOMBIA
TO 12N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 30W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE AREA
OF A 700 MB-TO-500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM 24 HOURS AGO
IS NEAR 27N62W. CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 23N25W AND 16N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
32N18W 29N20W TO 24N24W.

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

It started to rain in San Juan since 6 AM.Scattered showers with some rumbles of thunder at the distance moved thru.We expect more rain today.I will keep you informed of any news of flash flood watches and warnings.

[Gustywind]

It started to rain in San Juan since 6 AM.Scattered showers with some rumbles of thunder at the distance moved thru.We expect more rain today.I will keep you informed of any news of flash flood watches and warnings.

Tkanks Cycloneye, we appreciate . Things are imroving steadily in Guadeloupe, no more showers for the moment but the sky is pretty cloudy and the sun is trying to shine in spite of the high clouds.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST WED OCT 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 64 WEST AND SOUTH OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND
PRODUCE A MODERATE TRADE WIND WIND FLOW ACROSS LOCAL AREA. UPPER
TROUGH/TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN/FILL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATER WILL ENHANCE SHOWER
ND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL HOWEVER STEER
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER LAND QUICKLY WESTWARDS...SO
NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WHILE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY OVER LAND WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... EXPECT THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS
PASSING SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ON THURSDAY AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT WILL
AGAIN CREATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND HELP PRODUCE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY...AND A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED... MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
TJMZ AND AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJPS FROM NOW THROUGH
ABOUT 28/22Z...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...ONGOING NARROW PLUME OF VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE
REFER TO SIGMET INDIA 15.

[cycloneye]

Well,it turned out to not be a bad weather day after all.Only a few afternoon showers fell in the central mountains.

[abajan]

...We hope some water for the trees, plants...because of the severe drought in most of the EC islands .

You got that right. I can’t recall experiencing such a dry October here. We need some rain badly. Late October into early November is usually the wettest time of year for Barbados.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.I leave with the latest discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 PM AST WED OCT 28 2009

.UPDATE...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DIMINISHED RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT...WILL AID TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL PROMISE
AN ACTIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT...THEN EXIT THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
AND PRODUCE A MODERATE TRADE WIND WIND FLOW ACROSS LOCAL AREA.
UPPER TROUGH/TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS AT TISX AND TIST. EXPECT LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AFTER 29/16Z AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ BETWEEN 29/17Z
AND 29/22Z IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

[Gustywind]

...We hope some water for the trees, plants...because of the severe drought in most of the EC islands .

You got that right. I can’t recall experiencing such a dry October here. We need some rain badly. Late October into early November is usually the wettest time of year for Barbados.

Absolutely you got that right too Abajan. I'm amazed that Barbados too! Oh yeah pretty dry in Guadeloupe, September was awfully dry and it's an euphemisma! Only 138 millimeters at the weather station (of our promets of Meteo-France) at le Raizet, Abymes. That means a deficit of water up to 38/%...
October is not pretty optimistic, so let's keep our fingers crossed Abajan hoping for some well needed water in most of the EC islands my friends:D.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST THU OCT 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS JUST SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCALS WATERS EARLY TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE TRADE WIND WIND FLOW ACROSS LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NE...MOVING A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WIND
PATTERN WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERIOR...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

AN INCREASE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A MORE UNSTABLE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH 29/14Z...WITH A VCSH OR PASSING -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PR...THE VI...TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 29/16Z...WITH LLVL ENE WIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SW SECTIONS TO PR...TO BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO TJPS AND TJMZ BETWEEN
29/18Z-29/22Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF
TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL
WATERS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEAST COMPONENT IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE WW3 MODEL IS SUGGESTING A LARGE
NE SWELL EVENT STARTING ON SUNDAY AND PEAKING ON MONDAY. THE WW3
MODEL IS SUGGESTING SEA HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET...BUT
DECIDED TO GO MORE CONSERVATIVE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH
SWELLS OF BETWEEN 7 TO 10 FEET.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 290847
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST THU OCT 29 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED
MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS VERY LIGHT...WITH ESTIMATED
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
LAND. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN EAST NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING PATCHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME...AS SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS.

$$

SR

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN