WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

drdavisjr · #901 Postby **drdavisjr** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:48 pm

StormingB81 wrote:He already has a new board for it

Thanks, sorry

#902 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:49 pm

I was just letting you know.

drdavisjr · #903 Postby **drdavisjr** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:51 pm

StormingB81 wrote:I was just letting you know.

Awesome...I just can't believe it!!

#904 Postby **StormingB81** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:54 pm

See what happends/ It may not even develop/ only because if it heads to the PI I don't think it could develop much and I believe HURRAKAN or CYCLONEEYE can answer this but if it goes into the same track as MIRINAE wouldnt it do nothing because the waters have been churned up already?

dexterlabio · #905 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:01 am

shear in the location of 96W is minimal, and the ocean heat content (from philippine sea to pacific ocean) remains high. if 96W will able to make it, then there might be another one to be watched out. the philippines had enough from ketsana to mirinae, but the ocean seems to give much.

#906 Postby **StormingB81** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:02 am

Well maybe this will move NW away from you guys

drdavisjr · #907 Postby **drdavisjr** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:03 am

dexterlabio wrote:shear in the location of 96W is minimal, and the ocean heat content (from philippine sea to pacific ocean) remains high. if 96W will able to make it, then there might be another one to be watched out. the philippines had enough from ketsana to mirinae, but the ocean seems to give much.

We've got to get thru this one before we can even think about that one.

dexterlabio · #908 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:11 am

StormingB81 wrote:Well maybe this will move NW away from you guys

i wish it will never form. if the ridge remains strong, it could follow the same track of mirinae.

okay. we are still into mirinae. i hope everyone already know what to do, with all the storms that came by.

#909 Postby **oaba09** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:14 am

I don't wanna be the bearer of bad news but mirinae is still moving WSW

drdavisjr · #910 Postby **drdavisjr** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:20 am

oaba09 wrote:I don't wanna be the bearer of bad news but mirinae is still moving WSW

We need to prepare ourselves and our families for the eye passing over us (especially us in north Metro Manila). We might be spared, we might not. I'm not willing to take that risk, however.

drdavisjr · #911 Postby **drdavisjr** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:33 am

If you look at the Dvorak imagery and the water vapor loops, it is starting to look like the ridge MIGHT be weakening and the storm is being pulled poleward.

I can't tell for sure.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio · #912 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:36 am

notice that red eye at the middle of santi? the eye is filled with thick rain clouds. and it is moving wsw as of the moment.

#913 Postby **oaba09** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:46 am

drdavisjr wrote:If you look at the Dvorak imagery and the water vapor loops, it is starting to look like the ridge MIGHT be weakening and the storm is being pulled poleward.

I can't tell for sure.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If that's the case, then JMA and JTWC got the correct track......If it continues WSW, I expect metro manila to be hit...

drdavisjr · #914 Postby **drdavisjr** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:47 am

2009OCT29 005700 16.09 -132.01 SPRL
2009OCT29 013000 15.99 -131.56 SPRL
2009OCT29 015700 15.67 -131.39 SPRL
2009OCT29 023000 15.55 -131.36 SPRL
2009OCT29 025700 15.83 -131.36 SPRL
2009OCT29 033000 15.96 -131.39 FCST
2009OCT29 035700 15.95 -131.29 FCST
2009OCT29 043000 16.38 -130.28 SPRL
2009OCT29 045700 16.36 -130.38 SPRL
2009OCT29 051300 16.45 -130.01 SPRL

#915 Postby **oaba09** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:49 am

drdavisjr wrote:2009OCT29 005700 16.09 -132.01 SPRL
2009OCT29 013000 15.99 -131.56 SPRL
2009OCT29 015700 15.67 -131.39 SPRL
2009OCT29 023000 15.55 -131.36 SPRL
2009OCT29 025700 15.83 -131.36 SPRL
2009OCT29 033000 15.96 -131.39 FCST
2009OCT29 035700 15.95 -131.29 FCST
2009OCT29 043000 16.38 -130.28 SPRL
2009OCT29 045700 16.36 -130.38 SPRL
2009OCT29 051300 16.45 -130.01 SPRL

that's weird coz based on the sat loops, it's still going WSW

dexterlabio · #916 Postby **dexterlabio** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:59 am

drdavisjr wrote:2009OCT29 005700 16.09 -132.01 SPRL
2009OCT29 013000 15.99 -131.56 SPRL
2009OCT29 015700 15.67 -131.39 SPRL
2009OCT29 023000 15.55 -131.36 SPRL
2009OCT29 025700 15.83 -131.36 SPRL
2009OCT29 033000 15.96 -131.39 FCST
2009OCT29 035700 15.95 -131.29 FCST
2009OCT29 043000 16.38 -130.28 SPRL
2009OCT29 045700 16.36 -130.38 SPRL
2009OCT29 051300 16.45 -130.01 SPRL

what is the link of the site where you get this? yeah why is it like that. i am viewing the current animations of mirinae in jma and it is still moving west to wsw...

but wait, is mirinae getting sheared as of this moment? i also notice that the large CDO is reduced. i am thinking that it is weakening.

metenthusiast · #917 Postby **metenthusiast** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 12:59 am

Latest wind field model from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) on the Saturday 8 am PST (00H GMT)

#918 Postby **oaba09** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:01 am

It's definitely moving w to wsw...........

drdavisjr · #919 Postby **drdavisjr** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:07 am

dexterlabio wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:2009OCT29 005700 16.09 -132.01 SPRL
2009OCT29 013000 15.99 -131.56 SPRL
2009OCT29 015700 15.67 -131.39 SPRL
2009OCT29 023000 15.55 -131.36 SPRL
2009OCT29 025700 15.83 -131.36 SPRL
2009OCT29 033000 15.96 -131.39 FCST
2009OCT29 035700 15.95 -131.29 FCST
2009OCT29 043000 16.38 -130.28 SPRL
2009OCT29 045700 16.36 -130.38 SPRL
2009OCT29 051300 16.45 -130.01 SPRL

what is the link of the site where you get this? yeah why is it like that. i am viewing the current animations of mirinae in jma and it is still moving west to wsw...

but wait, is mirinae getting sheared as of this moment? i also notice that the large CDO is reduced. i am thinking that it is weakening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... W-list.txt

metenthusiast · #920 Postby **metenthusiast** » Thu Oct 29, 2009 1:11 am

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