WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[drdavisjr]

I think when the convection was sheered a couple of hours ago, the outflow was greatly reduced, hence the weakening.

It looks like outflow is starting to improve, and if it does, we might see some intensification, especially since the storm is in warmer water.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[oaba09]

Right now I am not trusting my eyes on the lat/long points. Right now I am watching that ridge to the north and how the core interacts with it.

It does seem to be tracking the southern line, and that line, my friends, leads (at this moment) straight to Metro Manila.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

i kinda agree with you. i am not trusting the sat animation in wunderground, but the core of the storm, as i observe, seems to be diving a bit as it moves westward.

I agree w/ your obsrvation...it might be a wobble though......

[drdavisjr]

By the way, cycloneye, if I am wrong about anything I say, please correct me.

[cycloneye]

By the way, cycloneye, if I am wrong about anything I say, please correct me.

You are correct on your observations.

[oaba09]

It seems to have started a wsw movement again...anyone else notice this?

[oaba09]

TPPN10 PGTW 291212

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 15.7N

D. 129.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.0 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 4.5. DBO PT AND
MET. CNVCTN HAS REGENERATED OVER THE LLCC IN THE PAST 06 HOURS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/0900Z 15.8N 130.3E SSMI
29/1023Z 15.9N 130.0E SSMS


UEHARA

[ManilaTC]

This fix gives it away... its a CDO again... and it has clearly dropped in latitude.

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0921 MIRINAE (0921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 16.2N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 15.7N 123.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 311200UTC 15.5N 118.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 011200UTC 15.1N 113.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[oaba09]

JMA seems to still have it at 16.2 while JTWC has it at 15.7.....kinda confusing....

[dexterlabio]

i think there is uncertainty in mirinae's exact location. it is somewhere between 15.7 and 16.2N. the convection has regenerated, as observed in the latest sat animation.

[metenthusiast]

It seems to have started a wsw movement again...anyone else notice this?

Good evening guys and good morning to our friends in the west! Already battened down for Mirinae?

I'm currently watching the sat loop from RAMMB/CIRA/NOAA and yes, it seems to be moving WSW...

[ManilaTC]

I go for JTWC, as the loops indicate.

[ManilaTC]

I certainly think that a microwave pass will settle this.

[dexterlabio]

I certainly think that a microwave pass will settle this.

yes. we couldn't pinpoint its exact location by just looking into the satellite images. with mirinae's circulation reorganizing, i think there will be uncertainty in determining the eye of this storm.

[metenthusiast]

Latest

[oaba09]

Latest

The eye is quite visible on those images......

[metenthusiast]

Another forecast. From a fellow Filipino weather enthusiast



http://weathergaines.blogspot.com/

"Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

[oaba09]

Pretty similar w/ JMA and PAGASA
90 KTS



WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.3N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.4N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.8N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.5N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 128.7E.
TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

[metenthusiast]

Guys, this just occurred to me though I really don't know if it's even probable or not, but what if Mirinae kept going WSW or even SW for the remainder of its forecast track? I know it's only 36+ hours before it hits land but is there a possibility that it could go lower, putting distance from Manila in the south?

Just a thought...

[oaba09]

Guys, this just occurred to me though I really don't know if it's even probable or not, but what if Mirinae kept going WSW or even SW for the remainder of its forecast track? I know it's only 36+ hours before it hits land but is there a possibility that it could go lower, putting distance from Manila in the south?

Just a thought...

That's highly probable if the STR holds......right now it seems to be moving WSW...for the JTWC and JMA forecast to be correct, the system should move in a westwards motion soon...if it continues moving wsw, expect a lower track in the coming advisories....