WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

[metenthusiast]

Guys, this just occurred to me though I really don't know if it's even probable or not, but what if Mirinae kept going WSW or even SW for the remainder of its forecast track? I know it's only 36+ hours before it hits land but is there a possibility that it could go lower, putting distance from Manila in the south?

Just a thought...

That's highly probable of the STR holds......right now it seems to be moving WSW...for the JTWC and JMA forecast to be correct, the system should move in a westwards motion soon...if it continues moving wsw, expect a lower track in the coming advisories....

My thoughts exactly. I am watching the sat loops and it seems to be dipping more... but that's me and my observation. I was thinking that if it doesn't levels out on a westward track soon, then we're really really in for it.

[oaba09]

Guys, this just occurred to me though I really don't know if it's even probable or not, but what if Mirinae kept going WSW or even SW for the remainder of its forecast track? I know it's only 36+ hours before it hits land but is there a possibility that it could go lower, putting distance from Manila in the south?

Just a thought...

That's highly probable of the STR holds......right now it seems to be moving WSW...for the JTWC and JMA forecast to be correct, the system should move in a westwards motion soon...if it continues moving wsw, expect a lower track in the coming advisories....

My thoughts exactly. I am watching the sat loops and it seems to be dipping more... but that's me and my observation. I was thinking that if it doesn't levels out on a westward track soon, then we're really really in for it.

Even if it follows the JMA and JTWC forecast, we're still pretty much in trouble because the center will be passing VERY NEAR us...the center of the storm is almost in the same level as metro manila mind you.....

[dexterlabio]

there is a burst of convection over mirinae as of the moment. for now, i go for some 10-100 kms north of manila landfall.

[oaba09]

200910291200 15.7 129.4 90
200910290600 15.8 130.6 90
200910290000 16.1 132.2 90
200910281800 16.3 133.7 85
200910281200 16.3 135.4 85
200910280600 16.2 136.9 85
200910280000 16.2 138.5 75
200910271800 15.9 140.2 65
200910271200 15.6 142.2 45
200910270600 14.8 143.7 40
200910270000 14.1 145.4 35
200910261800 13.6 146.9 35
200910261200 13.2 148.4 35
200910260600 12.7 149.9 30
200910260000 12.2 151.3 25

[dexterlabio]

Guys, this just occurred to me though I really don't know if it's even probable or not, but what if Mirinae kept going WSW or even SW for the remainder of its forecast track? I know it's only 36+ hours before it hits land but is there a possibility that it could go lower, putting distance from Manila in the south?

Just a thought...

That's highly probable of the STR holds......right now it seems to be moving WSW...for the JTWC and JMA forecast to be correct, the system should move in a westwards motion soon...if it continues moving wsw, expect a lower track in the coming advisories....

My thoughts exactly. I am watching the sat loops and it seems to be dipping more... but that's me and my observation. I was thinking that if it doesn't levels out on a westward track soon, then we're really really in for it.

even if the eye only pass north or even south of ncr, we will still be able to feel some 120kph winds and heavy rains. by the looks of it, mirinae has both large amounts of rain and strong typhoon-force winds O_O

[oaba09]

It's starting to look good again(the physical appearance of the typhoon).............

[oaba09]

My personal analysis:
Right now, PAGASA, JMA, and JTWC seems to have similar tracks. In order for their track to hold, the typhoon should move westwards in the next couple of hours. If the typhoon continues a wsw movement, that means that the STR is strong enough to push mirinae. If we don't see a westwards movement soon, expect a lower forecast track tomorrow....

***This is not an official forecast and should not be used as such***

[metenthusiast]

It's starting to look good again(the physical appearance of the typhoon).............

Seems better than before...

[JTE50]

I'm here in Manila now. Seems like Customs and Immigration was expecting me because I just wizzed through them in 5 minutes.

Ok, I have the slow internet here so I'm loving the S2K site for updates. Tomorrow I pick up a friend and we head to the target area. Which may not be too far reading some of these posts about WSW or possibly even south of that. I told the guy at the airport I needed someone to drive into the typhoon. He called his friend and they both spoke in Tagalog (sp?) and every time he said "typhoon" the laughed like I was a crazy man! After a few minutes, he said "no problem my friend will take you into the typhoon."

[oaba09]

I'm here in Manila now. Seems like Customs and Immigration was expecting me because I just wizzed through them in 5 minutes.

Ok, I have the slow internet here so I'm loving the S2K site for updates. Tomorrow I pick up a friend and we head to the target area. Which may not be too far reading some of these posts about WSW or possibly even south of that. I told the guy at the airport I needed someone to drive into the typhoon. He called his friend and they both spoke in Tagalog (sp?) and every time he said "typhoon" the laughed like I was a crazy man! After a few minutes, he said "no problem my friend will take you into the typhoon."

It seems like MIRINAE is still moving WNW so you probably won't need to travel to far

[metenthusiast]

I'm here in Manila now. Seems like Customs and Immigration was expecting me because I just wizzed through them in 5 minutes.

Ok, I have the slow internet here so I'm loving the S2K site for updates. Tomorrow I pick up a friend and we head to the target area. Which may not be too far reading some of these posts about WSW or possibly even south of that. I told the guy at the airport I needed someone to drive into the typhoon. He called his friend and they both spoke in Tagalog (sp?) and every time he said "typhoon" the laughed like I was a crazy man! After a few minutes, he said "no problem my friend will take you into the typhoon."

Nice to hear that Jim! You were featured in a documentary by GMA news, I saw you in that show myself. Maybe that helped or maybe some of our friends here in S2K already lent a helping hand...

[ricmood]

[oaba09]

Baka naman gawa ng tao na yang STR na yan. Panahon pa kase ni parma andyan na yan eh. kaya nga hindi makataas si parma noon at tatlong beses pa nagpabalik-balik satin. Tapos ngayon kay santi STR na naman. NCR pa dadaanan.

Alam ko imposible pero masyado na kase frustating ang nangyayari. Hehe. Nagiging tawiran tayo ng bagyo sa Pilipinas samantalang yung mga bansa sa taas natin protektadong protektado ng STR na yan. Pag yung bagong sama ng panahn sa Guam satin pa dumaan...naku na talaga. hehehehe

English please...this is an international forum. let's be considerate to those who doesn't understand our native language

[drdavisjr]

Baka naman gawa ng tao na yang STR na yan. Panahon pa kase ni parma andyan na yan eh. kaya nga hindi makataas si parma noon at tatlong beses pa nagpabalik-balik satin. Tapos ngayon kay santi STR na naman. NCR pa dadaanan.

Alam ko imposible pero masyado na kase frustating ang nangyayari. Hehe. Nagiging tawiran tayo ng bagyo sa Pilipinas samantalang yung mga bansa sa taas natin protektadong protektado ng STR na yan. Pag yung bagong sama ng panahn sa Guam satin pa dumaan...naku na talaga. hehehehe

I think that is very rude since this site is a US based site and the admins and moderators do not understand Tagalog..

[oaba09]

Baka naman gawa ng tao na yang STR na yan. Panahon pa kase ni parma andyan na yan eh. kaya nga hindi makataas si parma noon at tatlong beses pa nagpabalik-balik satin. Tapos ngayon kay santi STR na naman. NCR pa dadaanan.

Alam ko imposible pero masyado na kase frustating ang nangyayari. Hehe. Nagiging tawiran tayo ng bagyo sa Pilipinas samantalang yung mga bansa sa taas natin protektadong protektado ng STR na yan. Pag yung bagong sama ng panahn sa Guam satin pa dumaan...naku na talaga. hehehehe

I think that is very rude since this site is a US based site and the admins and moderators do not understand Tagalog..

I agree...........

[vbhoutex]

It is fine to post in a native language, especially if it can be helpful to others that may not understand English. However, we do ask that you also post an English translation along with the native language version.

[drdavisjr]

It is fine to post in a native language, especially if it can be helpful to others that may not understand English. However, we do ask that you also post an English translation along with the native language version.

Thank you...

[ricmood]

Baka naman gawa ng tao na yang STR na yan. Panahon pa kase ni parma andyan na yan eh. kaya nga hindi makataas si parma noon at tatlong beses pa nagpabalik-balik satin. Tapos ngayon kay santi STR na naman. NCR pa dadaanan.

Alam ko imposible pero masyado na kase frustating ang nangyayari. Hehe. Nagiging tawiran tayo ng bagyo sa Pilipinas samantalang yung mga bansa sa taas natin protektadong protektado ng STR na yan. Pag yung bagong sama ng panahn sa Guam satin pa dumaan...naku na talaga. hehehehe

Just a frustrating rant about STR...

[metenthusiast]

Baka naman gawa ng tao na yang STR na yan. Panahon pa kase ni parma andyan na yan eh. kaya nga hindi makataas si parma noon at tatlong beses pa nagpabalik-balik satin. Tapos ngayon kay santi STR na naman. NCR pa dadaanan.

Alam ko imposible pero masyado na kase frustating ang nangyayari. Hehe. Nagiging tawiran tayo ng bagyo sa Pilipinas samantalang yung mga bansa sa taas natin protektadong protektado ng STR na yan. Pag yung bagong sama ng panahn sa Guam satin pa dumaan...naku na talaga. hehehehe

This is from wikipedia. You be the judge of what you're trying to imply if it's possible or not...

The subtropical ridge (STR) is a large belt of high pressure situated around the latitudes of 30°N in the Northern Hemisphere and 30°S in the Southern Hemisphere. It is characterized by mostly calm winds, which acts to reduce air quality under its axis by causing fog overnight, and haze during daylight hours caused by the stable atmosphere found near its location. Air flows out from its center toward the upper and lower latitudes of each hemisphere, creating both the trade winds and the westerlies. It moves poleward during the summer, reaching its most northern latitude in early fall, before moving equatorward during the cold season. The ENSO climate cycle can displace the subtropical ridge, with La Niñas allowing for a more northerly axis for the ridge, while El Niños show flatter, more southerly ridges. The change of the ridge position during ENSO cycles changes tracks of tropical cyclones which form around their southern and western peripheries. As the subtropical ridge varies in position and strength, it can enhance or depress monsoon regimes around their southern periphery.