WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[ozonepete]

Hi friends, I just wake up, I go out and look at the sky. The sunrise is beautiful here in Cebu philippines. I look to the east and the sky is red. Farther to the east, I see thick strands of cirrus clouds most likely belong to Mirinae. I just hope the Philippines will be ok and will not be battered so much by this typhoon.

Boy, you get up early!!

[breeze]

Boy am I glad metenthusiast moved up his appointment. He's just going to make it before the really bad weather comes in, and he would never have been able to make a Saturday appointment. Whew!

I'm glad, too - having dialysis a day early is not near as bad as being days late!

[cebuboy]

Hi friends, I just wake up, I go out and look at the sky. The sunrise is beautiful here in Cebu philippines. I look to the east and the sky is red. Farther to the east, I see thick strands of cirrus clouds most likely belong to Mirinae. I just hope the Philippines will be ok and will not be battered so much by this typhoon.

We have a saying here in the U.S.: "Red sky at night, sailor's delight. Red sky in the morning, sailor take warning."

Nice saying..Yeah could be true, because what I see now in http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html , This typhoon is getting huge, it covers almost the entire Luzon and majority of Visayas region. I also see the eye starting to form, I hope it fails. I read about Typhoon Milenyo, it starts as category 2 as it nears Philippine sea as it rapidly intensifies to Category 4 just under 6 hours after: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Xangsane

[oaba09]

For the friends that are waking up including stormchaser Jim,here are the three tracks of the 18:00Z warnings by JMA,JTWC and Pagasa.

JMA



JTWC



PAGASA

Just woke up............wow!!!! what a good morning to us in the Philippines

[cebuboy]

Hi friends, I just wake up, I go out and look at the sky. The sunrise is beautiful here in Cebu philippines. I look to the east and the sky is red. Farther to the east, I see thick strands of cirrus clouds most likely belong to Mirinae. I just hope the Philippines will be ok and will not be battered so much by this typhoon.

Boy, you get up early!!

I have short sleep , possibly will sleep again in the morning to prepare for the day. Anyway, I also forgot to turn off the computer. I also heard the news, got alarmed and went to the forum immediately.

[cycloneye]

5 AM Warning by Pagasa=Metro Manila under Signal 2

Track is over Metro Manila.

Typhoon "SANTI" continues to move closer to Aurora-Quezon area.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 580 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon

Coordinates: 15.6°N, 127.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West Southwest at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:
50 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Sunday morning:
370 km West of Manila
Monday morning:
840 km West of Manila

Code: Select all

Signal No.3

(100-185 kph winds)  Polillo Islands
   
Signal No. 2

(60-100 kph winds)  Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Is.
Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila
   
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)  Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Albay
Burias Is.
Sorsogon
Marinduque
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group


Reposted for our friends that are waking up in the Phillippines.Be safe please all of you over there.

[cebuboy]

Just woke up............wow!!!! what a good morning to us in the Philippines

Wish you good luck to all of you in Luzon. We care for you. I just hope that instead the sky starts to dim in Manila this morning. People are as aware as we are and start pumping their rubberboats, gas, foods to prepare for the worst. Not to go to work and hang around.

[oaba09]

I kinda expected for this to happen before I went to sleep so I'm not really shocked but still, this latest development is very scary...........

[cycloneye]

For those who may not know the different signals,here are the explanation for all of them for example what to expect in Manila under signal 2.

http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph//genme ... html#psws2

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 29/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°25'(15.4°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 30/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°10'(14.2°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°10'(13.2°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[oaba09]

For those who may not know the different signals,here are the explanation for all of them for example what to expect in Manila under signal 2.

http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph//genme ... html#psws2

We expect to be placed under signal #3 this evening if the typhoon follows it's current track

[cebuboy]

For those who may not know the different signals,here are the explanation for all of them for example what to expect in Manila under signal 2.

http://kidlat.pagasa.dost.gov.ph//genme ... html#psws2

Thanks for this. However, it seems PAGASA signals only weighs so much about wind speed and ignore the depth/degree of rainfall/convection. So we can have Signal 1 or 2 , but it will rained so hard that it floods the whole metro manila to the max. This is a similar situation to what happen to Ketsana.

[HURAKAN]

Wow, look at the outflow

[dexterlabio]

i woke up this morning to prepare for school, then i heard in the radio that it is signal#2 here in metro manila. wow. mirinae is becoming closer... and larger, seeing the latest satellite image of mirinae, it has very large amount of rainfall. looks like we have to get ready for both the rains and winds O_O scary as halloween...

[oaba09]

Wow, look at the outflow

Yeah................that thing is huge

[cebuboy]

i woke up this morning to prepare for school, then i heard in the radio that it is signal#2 here in metro manila. wow. mirinae is becoming closer... and larger, seeing the latest satellite image of mirinae, it has very large amount of rainfall. looks like we have to get ready for both the rains and winds O_O scary as halloween...

Classes are not suspended, work will continue, people seems not prepared.

[dexterlabio]

Wow, look at the outflow

what does that indicate? i thought it already reached its peak winds, but the latest observations is that the typhoon's outflow is "improving" with huge convection, but i am not sure if it will intensify still.

[dexterlabio]

i woke up this morning to prepare for school, then i heard in the radio that it is signal#2 here in metro manila. wow. mirinae is becoming closer... and larger, seeing the latest satellite image of mirinae, it has very large amount of rainfall. looks like we have to get ready for both the rains and winds O_O scary as halloween...

Classes are not suspended, work will continue, people seems not prepared.

yeah. i think the hype is on the coming halloween, and not on the coming howler O_O i am watching the local news and they are featuring halloween stuff, not about the storm. i wonder if the people are aware that this typhoon exists and is threatening their place.

[cebuboy]

i woke up this morning to prepare for school, then i heard in the radio that it is signal#2 here in metro manila. wow. mirinae is becoming closer... and larger, seeing the latest satellite image of mirinae, it has very large amount of rainfall. looks like we have to get ready for both the rains and winds O_O scary as halloween...

Classes are not suspended, work will continue, people seems not prepared.

yeah. i think the hype is on the coming halloween, and not on the coming howler O_O i am watching the local news and they are featuring halloween stuff, not about the storm. i wonder if the people are aware that this typhoon exists and is threatening their place.

Just sad to know, after our nation suffers a lot of typhoon casualties this year and is still looks acceptable. It is not normal to me.

[oaba09]