WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[cycloneye]

JMA 00 UTC Warning

Track is WSW.May reach Bay of Bengal if it gets favorable conditions.

TY 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 30 October 2009
<Analyses at 30/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°40'(125.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40'(14.7°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°25'(13.4°)
E110°35'(110.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[oaba09]

moving westwards now.....

Looks west-southwest to me.

It seems to have gained latitude based on JTWC

TPPN10 PGTW 300019

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 15.3N

D. 125.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. SEEMS
CDO PATTERN MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO EYE PATTERN. USED BANDING
EYE TECHNIQUE TO DETERMINE DT WITH AVG WIDTH > 1.25 DEG. NO
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO CF. MET AND PT ALSO 5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/2134Z 15.2N 126.6E SSMI


BRANDON

[jinftl]

radius of tropicl storm force winds (yellow) and hurricane force winds (red):

[ozonepete]

moving westwards now.....

Looks west-southwest to me.

It seems to have gained latitude based on JTWC

TPPN10 PGTW 300019

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 15.3N

D. 125.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. SEEMS
CDO PATTERN MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO EYE PATTERN. USED BANDING
EYE TECHNIQUE TO DETERMINE DT WITH AVG WIDTH > 1.25 DEG. NO
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO CF. MET AND PT ALSO 5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/2134Z 15.2N 126.6E SSMI


BRANDON

I think that was a wobble, oaba09.

[rednas]

Here is what it looks like here in Cainta, Rizal:







As you can see, the sun is still shining. If Ketsana or Lupit didn't happen this would just be another storm for me and I wouldn't be scared.

[oaba09]

I think that was a wobble, oaba09.

I see.....I really need to learn how to differentiate between a wobble and an actual movement

[Aslkahuna]

30/1800Z would be 0200 Saturday as the RP is 16 hours ahead of Greenwich with midnight at 1600Z. A lot of the convection is on the south side of the storm so the Bicol region would not be a place to be headed for right now.

Steve

[ozonepete]

This is making a last desparate attempt to form a clean eye all the way through to the top, and it might succeed briefly, but it's basically out of time. Land interaction is already underway. Although the stongest convection (grey/black on MTSAT IR) has died out again, I would expect some of it to come back on and off. This is going to dump an awful lot of rain, so I'm glad it's moving really fast.

I'd say the center will go over Quezon City and north metro Manila. I would guess at about 75-80KT in the middle of Friday night/Saturday morning.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[breeze]

Welcome, rednas, and thanks for posting those photos.

[jinftl]

This is the time....approaching land...that a wobble here and wobble there can mean the difference between a direct hit and missing the worst of the core for any one location

I think that was a wobble, oaba09.

I see.....I really need to learn how to differentiate between a wobble and an actual movement

[oaba09]

Sun is visible right now...calm before the storm.......

[ozonepete]

I think that was a wobble, oaba09.

I see.....I really need to learn how to differentiate between a wobble and an actual movement

Good luck and keep at it. Some of us have been doing it for years and still get fooled a lot.

[dexterlabio]

i can see no eye forming. but jtwc reports that there's a transition of cdo to eye pattern. i wonder how will that affect anything. by the way, the sun shines very bright again over here in quezon city. haha. people around here began wondering why a storm signal is up.

[cycloneye]

30/1800Z would be 0200 Saturday as the RP is 16 hours ahead of Greenwich with midnight at 1600Z. A lot of the convection is on the south side of the storm so the Bicol region would not be a place to be headed for right now.

Steve

Steve,where is Bicol located,near Manila?

[oaba09]

30/1800Z would be 0200 Saturday as the RP is 16 hours ahead of Greenwich with midnight at 1600Z. A lot of the convection is on the south side of the storm so the Bicol region would not be a place to be headed for right now.

Steve

Steve,where is Bicol located,near Manila?

Bicol is located at the southeastern most portion of luzon island

[dexterlabio]

Powerful eye

do you think there will be an eye visible before touching down to luzon? it's core is still some 300 or 400 kms away from its target (northern quezon-metro manila), and i am afraid that some things might occur unexpectedly O_O we are going to the mall to buy flashlights, preparing for a wide blackout that may happen when mirinae reached our area.

[dataclese]

This is a nice link. Camera that pans the waterfront in Manila every once in a while and shows several recent loops:

http://www.earthtv.com/en/camera-locati ... owntown-en

[breeze]

This is a nice link. Camera that pans the waterfront in Manila every once in a while and shows several recent loops:

http://www.earthtv.com/en/camera-locati ... owntown-en

Thanks! I've been on Google for over an hour trying to find a decent webcam view.

[ozonepete]

This is a nice link. Camera that pans the waterfront in Manila every once in a while and shows several recent loops:

http://www.earthtv.com/en/camera-locati ... owntown-en

Very cool! Thanks.

[ozonepete]

Powerful eye

do you think there will be an eye visible before touching down to luzon? it's core is still some 300 or 400 kms away from its target (northern quezon-metro manila), and i am afraid that some things might occur unexpectedly O_O we are going to the mall to buy flashlights, preparing for a wide blackout that may happen when mirinae reached our area.

I posted a little while ago and said there may an eye visible on conventional satellite briefly in the next few hours but it looks like it's too late. This is already interacting with land which stop any strengthening and more than likely will weaken it some.