WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

TPPN10 PGTW 301500

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 30/1430Z

C. 14.6N

D. 122.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0901Z 14.9N 124.0E AMSU
30/0912Z 14.7N 124.1E WIND
30/0914Z 14.7N 124.1E SSMS
30/1005Z 14.6N 123.9E SSMI
30/1059Z 14.6N 123.6E TRMM
30/1251Z 14.5N 123.2E AMSU


UEHARA

Its east of manila

And it's moving W not WSW(per pagasa)

[stormcaster]

TPPN10 PGTW 301500

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 30/1430Z

C. 14.6N

D. 122.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0901Z 14.9N 124.0E AMSU
30/0912Z 14.7N 124.1E WIND
30/0914Z 14.7N 124.1E SSMS
30/1005Z 14.6N 123.9E SSMI
30/1059Z 14.6N 123.6E TRMM
30/1251Z 14.5N 123.2E AMSU


UEHARA

Its east of manila

And it's moving W not WSW(per pagasa)

hi to all... im also from manila currently in pasig... i've learned so much from you guys and became more aware of tropical storms. it seems that people are saying that the current system is bringing much of wind than rain... i hope so, but yet again based on what you have discussed, any amount of rain can cause damage to the phil... plus the wind... good luck to us

[oaba09]

TPPN10 PGTW 301500

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 30/1430Z

C. 14.6N

D. 122.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0901Z 14.9N 124.0E AMSU
30/0912Z 14.7N 124.1E WIND
30/0914Z 14.7N 124.1E SSMS
30/1005Z 14.6N 123.9E SSMI
30/1059Z 14.6N 123.6E TRMM
30/1251Z 14.5N 123.2E AMSU


UEHARA

Its east of manila

And it's moving W not WSW(per pagasa)

hi to all... im also from manila currently in pasig... i've learned so much from you guys and became more aware of tropical storms. it seems that people are saying that the current system is bringing much of wind than rain... i hope so, but yet again based on what you have discussed, any amount of rain can cause damage to the phil... plus the wind... good luck to us

Welcome to storm2k!!! I hope you're prepared

[breeze]

I welcome you, too, stormcaster!

[clueless]

Interesting track from pagasa...I don't agree w/ it but what do you guys think???

That's just wrong. The eye has already passed north of DAET and is going to go over Manila.

They have not impressed me very much so far during this storm.

Exactly....I really don't agree w/ their track...

they just showed this track on national television...

[ManilaTC]

** WTPQ21 RJTD 301500 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0921 MIRINAE (0921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 14.5N 122.7E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 311500UTC 14.3N 117.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 011200UTC 13.7N 113.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 021200UTC 11.8N 108.0E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

JMA has vindicated us!!!

[oaba09]

they just showed this track on national television...

Don't use this track.....it's wrong

[stormboy]

Hi guys, this is my first post here in the forum... But I dont feel that Im new here because I usually check this site when a storm is coming. Im located here in the Philippines - Las Pinas area.

I think PAGASA made a mistake earlier... they've changed the time of their bulletin to 10:45pm instead of 11pm... I dont know if they will be issuing another track soon. I heard in the news that they are having a hard time to interview someone from PAGASA because they are very busy tracking the storm.. Mirinae must be tricky isn't it! Or maybe, they are just... you know... making the most out of their old equipment... I hope their funds were not used to pay the ads of different politicians who are starting to campaign themselves for the upcoming elections...

[JTE50]

I posted some pics from out and about today in Manila:
http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_mirinae.htm

I've met up with James Reynolds and we are heading out before dark. Looks like we won't have to go far for this one.

[oaba09]

Look at JMA's latest



<Analyses at 30/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E122°40'(122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 31/15 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 190km(100NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E113°35'(113.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E108°00'(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

[ricmood]

JMA and PAGASA eye location almost the same

[ozonepete]

hi to all... im also from manila currently in pasig... i've learned so much from you guys and became more aware of tropical storms. it seems that people are saying that the current system is bringing much of wind than rain... i hope so, but yet again based on what you have discussed, any amount of rain can cause damage to the phil... plus the wind... good luck to us

Welcome!

[ozonepete]

Hi guys, this is my first post here in the forum... But I dont feel that Im new here because I usually check this site when a storm is coming. Im located here in the Philippines - Las Pinas area.

I think PAGASA made a mistake earlier... they've changed the time of their bulletin to 10:45pm instead of 11pm... I dont know if they will be issuing another track soon. I heard in the news that they are having a hard time to interview someone from PAGASA because they are very busy tracking the storm.. Mirinae must be tricky isn't it! Or maybe, they are just... you know... making the most out of their old equipment... I hope their funds were not used to pay the ads of different politicians who are starting to campaign themselves for the upcoming elections...

Welcome to storm2k!

[oaba09]

I posted some pics from out and about today in Manila:
http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_mirinae.htm

I've met up with James Reynolds and we are heading out before dark. Looks like we won't have to go far for this one.

Good luck!!! Where are you guys heading???

[oaba09]

JMA and PAGASA eye location almost the same

Not really...pagasa is at 14.3, JMA is at 14.5, JTWC is at 14.6....that's pretty significant...

[ozonepete]

I posted some pics from out and about today in Manila:
http://www.extremestorms.com/typhoon_mirinae.htm

I've met up with James Reynolds and we are heading out before dark. Looks like we won't have to go far for this one.

Good to hear from you, Jim. Be safe of course. The worst should come in roughly between 3 and 5AM your time. The eye, though raggedy, is still holding together as of 15Z and there's about 30 miles of intense wind and rain on the western side of it heading straight for Manila.

[ricmood]

60-80 kph winds here in Laguna

[oaba09]

what do you guys think about the direction? wsw or W???

[ozonepete]

JMA and PAGASA eye location almost the same

Not really...pagasa is at 14.3, JMA is at 14.5, JTWC is at 14.6....that's pretty significant...

Actually those are not that far apart, and are a pretty typical spread, especially when the eye covers 15-20 miles or so and is not completely circular.

[ozonepete]

what do you guys think about the direction? wsw or W???

A tiny bit south of due west right now. Still looks like it will go right over Manila to me.