Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU OCT 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WITH A
CUTOFF LOW FCST TO EVOLVE OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH ASSOCIATED TROF
AXIS FCST TO STRETCH SW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS REMISNICENT OF WINTER
IN THE TROPICS MOVED INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SAT. AS A
RESULT...VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVR THE CNTRL ATLC DEEP
NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ENSUE FAVORING SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION THAT WILL AFFECT NRN COAST/SLOPES OF PR AND USVI. THIS
CUTOFF LOW IS THEN FCST TO RETROGRESS LATE SUN AND MON AND
POSSIBLY BECOME A WARM CORE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH OF BERMUDA
WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NNE SWELLS FCST TO AFFECT NE PR...USVI AND
ANEGADA PASSAGE SUN WITH SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 FEET POSSIBLE AT
10-12 SECS.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 PM AST THU OCT 29 2009

.UPDATE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO SLIGHTLY ALTER WEATHER...SKY COVER...
POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE
A COUPLE OF ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE
SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA.

[cycloneye]

Good Morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST FRI OCT 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO STRETCH
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. MID LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS MOVE ON SHORE AFFECTING A FEW PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE REPORTED. EAST NORTHEAST WIND WIND PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEREFORE EXPECTED SHOWERS TO
MOVE ON SHORE FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWERS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...THEREFORE EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON FRAGMENTAL SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO FOR TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST
OF THIS SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 30/14Z...WITH A VCSH OR PASSING -SHRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR...THE VI...TNCM AND TKPK. AFT
30/16Z...WITH LLVL ENE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS...EXPECT SHRA AND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SW SECTIONS TO
PR...TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO TJPS
AND TJMZ BETWEEN 30/18Z-30/22Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES.



&&

.MARINE...SMALL SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN WATERS
OF PUERTO RICO...BUT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY. NORTHERN
SWELLS OF BETWEEN 7 TO 9 FEET WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH A BIGGER SECOND PULSE ON MONDAY GENERATING
SWELLS OF BETWEEN 8 TO 10 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUE FOR THIS SWELL EVENT MAINLY FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL
PASSAGES.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300522
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA TO 13N BETWEEN 52W
AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W'74W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
REALLY IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

10N13W 7N26W 10N40W 12N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 30W...
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEYOND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
AND THEN INTO MEXICO ALONG 25N. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...BEYOND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO ALABAMA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 24 HOURS AGO
NOW IS CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE
CYCLONIC CENTER IS ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA/
SOUTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. OTHER SHOWERS COVER THE
NICARAGUA COASTLINE TO THE NORTH OF 12N AND INTERIOR NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COASTAL COLOMBIA BETWEEN 76W AND 77W NEAR MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
TO THE WEST OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW STARTS NEAR COSTA
RICA...MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS CYCLONIC
CENTER...AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 15N AS IT PASSES ON TOP OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 31N53W TO 27N64W TO 27N77W ABOUT 60 NM TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROUGH. REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG 26N25W
23N36W 22N45W 18N57W.

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

We are here in a typical winter pattern with showers moving from the Atlantic and fresh temperatures.

[msbee]

things are quiet in St. Maarten but the Met office forecasts large swells moving in by tomorrow night:

Seas will remain moderate to choppy over exposed waters with 3 to 6 foot waves today and parts of Friday. Therefore, small craft should continue to exercise caution over the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages. A mayor swell event is expected to reach the local waters on Saturday night into Sunday.
Large North to Northeast swells developing over the Atlantic ocean are forecast to affect the Northeastern Caribbean waters causing significant high seas and surf.
By then a small craft warning may become necessary for all local waters.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST FRI OCT 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE EAST
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE LOW WILL CUT OFF AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS PLACE ON
MONDAY. BUT THE TROUGH WILL PULL BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE RETURNING TROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CUT OFF
NEAR 30 NORTH 50 WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL PULL NORTH FROM
THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE
WEEK AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE 10 DAY PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COUPLED
WITH A HIGH JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND IS SENDING COOLER AIR
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST...PINCHING OFF A
WEAK HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE PROCESS. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH FARTHER NORTH LATER IN
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW HAS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
SOUTH ON THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
THE HIGH JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS FLOW IS BEING MANIFESTED
IN A NUMBER OF VERY WEAK BOUNDARIES THAT ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
ISLAND AHEAD OF A RELATIVELY STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS SUPPOSED
TO MAKE ITS ENTRANCE INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY. EACH OF THESE MINI BOUNDARIES HAS A BAND OF CLOUDS
AND SOME OF THOSE CONTAIN SHOWERS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
THAT WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SAME FLOW OF COOL MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE HOLDING
BACK THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF TROPICAL WAVES NOW NEAR 48 WEST
AND 58 WEST. THIS LATTER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...WHILE THE
FORMER IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MAKE AN ENTRANCE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL USHER IN A HIGHER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH 7 NOVEMBER AND LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
DOMINANT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BRING PASSING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR...AND THE
NORTHERN USVI DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
IN TURN MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJSJ. LOCAL
MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE PASSING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST INTERIOR DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE WITH A PERIOD OF
16 SECONDS IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL
BE MOSTLY BELOW 3 FEET. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOCAL
PASSAGES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS PERIODS SHORTEN. SWELL ARE FORECAST TO REACH 8 TO 9
FEET EVERY 10 TO 12 SECONDS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY.
SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED EXCEPT WHERE
SWELL ENERGY FROM THE ATLANTIC CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THE PASSAGES.
SEAS WILL RISE LATER NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS.

[cycloneye]

things are quiet in St. Maarten but the Met office forecasts large swells moving in by tomorrow night:

Seas will remain moderate to choppy over exposed waters with 3 to 6 foot waves today and parts of Friday. Therefore, small craft should continue to exercise caution over the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages. A mayor swell event is expected to reach the local waters on Saturday night into Sunday.
Large North to Northeast swells developing over the Atlantic ocean are forecast to affect the Northeastern Caribbean waters causing significant high seas and surf.
By then a small craft warning may become necessary for all local waters.

That is another sign of the winter pattern that normally we have.

[Gustywind]

Pretty wet and rainy here! Since 6 PM numerous moderate showers and scattered tstorms are doting my area, and lightnings too . Minors floodings have been observed near Basse-Terre. The atmosphere seems moist and another rounds of showers are occuring...

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 AM AST SAT OCT 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST INTEGRATED PW VALUES INDICATING ONLY ONE INCH
OF PW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALONG WITH A STABLE AIRMASS...AS SEEN IN 00Z SJU SOUNDING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...TO HELP LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...APPROACHING 21 NORTH THIS
MORNING...ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PR AND
THE VI OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER.

EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK AHEAD WEATHER WISE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND EACH DAY. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE NORTHERLY SWELLS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKING
WAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
36W/38W FROM 18N TO 26N DRIFTING WESTWARD. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS
WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE 38W TROPICAL WAVE.
THE TROUGH HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N
TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 18N56W TO 16N61W TO A 14N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH
MORE THAN IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE FRINGES OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...

12N16W 7N26W 8N37W 7N50W 8N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
7N27.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
AMERICA...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST THREE DAYS
NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE CENTER ACTUALLY IS IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
24N BETWEEN 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 98W IN MEXICO. THIS
AREA ENCOMPASSES PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTERIOR MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N75W TO 16N82W TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN
90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 100W IN MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SOUTHERN HONDURAS
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER MAY BE RELATED TO THE FRONT ALSO.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THIS COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS PUSHED INTO AREA...TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 12N70W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 18N56W TO 16N61W TO A 14N65W CYCLONIC
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N56W 16N61W 15N66W.
THE SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS
NEAR 20N69W ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N52W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
25N55W AND 20N56W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS ALONG 31N44W 25N50W 21N60W 21N70W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W. THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN DROPPING TO THE SOUTH OF 30N WITH TIME.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH THE TROUGH
AND NOW IT COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 55W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N43W 27N47W
21N55W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 55W.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

Things are slighlty improving here. Sky is overcast, a bit grey here and the sun is trying to shine in spite of the high clouds. Meteo-France predicted a same scenario like yesterday with a light trend of decreasing showers ans tstorms but as usual let's wait and see. Whereas that's a pretty rainy event , but it's a good news the plants, the trees, the fruits
For info here are some measurements during the last 24H:
Meteo-France have reported more than 100 millimeters in the northern tip of the island, especially at Sainte-Rose
Deshaies and Pointe Noire. In the eastern tip of Guadeloupe, only the areas of Sainte-Anne and Saint François have been spared by these strong showers! More than 120 millimeters have been measured at les Abymes,
Gosier, Le Moule and Morne à l’Eau.

[cycloneye]

Have a good and safe Halloween day to all in the Caribbean.Lets see how the weather cooperates with the trick o treaters.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Have a good and safe Halloween day to all in the Caribbean.Lets see how the weather cooperates with the trick o treaters.

Tkanks Luis you too . Keep us informed Cycloneye if anything happens in PR. Guadeloupe continue to deal with this rainy event, hope that the conditions will improve tommorrow and Monday.
Be safe all my carib friends and enjoy your Halloween.

[cycloneye]

This developing low is the cause that is kicking the surf up in the northern facing coasts of the islands.By the way,if it sticks for the next 2-3 days,it may adquire subtropical caracteristics.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. TRANSITION OF THIS LOW INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS ON A SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN
ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEARBY
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH MORE THAN WITH THE WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE EAST
OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 76W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 7N40W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 14W-17W...
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 55W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR
27N101W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
24N90W 17N95W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 30-35 KT GALE
FORCE N WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 23N W OF THE FRONT.
SE 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E GULF E OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS...N
MEXICO...AND THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE E GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W. ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.
EXPECT... MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1002 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO S FLORIDA ALONG 23N50W 22N60W
20N70W 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 37N12W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N36W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E
OF 30W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 20N.

$$
FORMOSA