WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

[ricmood]

How about that building clouds southeast of Guam?

[ozonepete]

How about that building clouds southeast of Guam?

Yeah, I noticed it too. If anything really gets going there, we'll start a new thread.

[StormingB81]

Ozone was right man this thing starting to look ugly. looks liek it will be nothing but rain wherever it goes.

[dexterlabio]

this season has been hyperactive, starting from late-september...

97W could be another thing to get worried about O_O i know that the cool surge from the northeast would eventually weaken its circulation and hinder its development, but once it reaches Luzon, it might still cause some heavy downpour along the saturated lands where the past several cyclones caused massive destruction.

it looks like this season has already beaten the 2006 typhoon season, and is coming near the 2004 season. as far as i can remember, the philippines completed the list of cyclones from A to Z during that season, and also when the 4 consecutive destructive storms (unding, violeta, winnie, yoyong) wreak havoc across the country in a span of 2 weeks.

[Aslkahuna]

For a good example of a year where Nature had it in for the Philippines and specifically Luzon, check out the ATCR for 1974. Especially note the tracks and dates for:
TY Bess
TY Carmen
TY Della
TY Elaine
TS Faye
TY Gloria
and for S's and G's throw in TY Irma and add the August floods from strong monsoon flow south of TY Mary.

Steve

[Infdidoll]

Oh crap...that's all I've got to say...Wish there was a prospected track out there for this. A typhoon or even a tropical storm is just about the last thing I need on my plate, right now.

We've had some serious wind gusts coming from the WNW, tonight...is there some kind of front moving in from that direction? My pathetically amateur eyes see something on radar, but I don't know what term you experts would use and if it would be enough to keep this thing at bay if it does decide to swing around this way. Please say yes? (haha)

Yes. An unusually cool air mass has moved in over SE Asia including your area. Besides the fact that sooner or later this system will ingest some of that air which will weaken it, the upper winds are shearing the thunderstorm tops off to the northeast and it looks like the shear will only get worse ahead of it. That will weaken it further. So although it looks good on satellite, its future doesn't look very good. It may breifly get fairly stromg but it has very rough conditions ahead of it.

Thank you so much, Pete! Great explanation. That does rest my mind a little seeing as how powerful this cool air mass is. It was cold enough to require a jacket this morning and I haven't seen waves like these since Melor went by at its peak. The wind was really loud all night long. Sounds like a cool air mass with a punch. If it comes this way, I doubt it will hold together. When the wind started picking up, last night, I had to run on here and see if I missed something. You would swear, from the weather, that there was a typhoon on the way...except for the chill in the air.

[Aslkahuna]

Looks like the disturbance is developing in the horizontal shear zone southward of the NE monsoon flow (aka the Polar Front-the mean November position of which is between Luzon and Taiwan). Such disturbances often develop off Mindanao in December when the NE monsoon is strong and can cause serious flooding there. On rare occasions an overrunning rain pattern will develop over Luzon from such patterns.

For the Record, most WPAC Typhoons develop in the Monsoon Trough rather than an ITCZ. The ITCZ is the convergence zone between the opposing Trades of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The Monsoon Trough has easterly Trades on the equatorward side of a trough of Low Pressure and deep westerly cross equatorial flow equatorward of the Trough. Horizontal Cyclonic shear within the trough results in the development of discrete circulations which track along the trough until they develop and head NW out of the trough. This,incidentally, is why the NIO has no activity in July and August because the monsoon trough is over land.


Steve

[ozonepete]

Looks like the disturbance is developing in the horizontal shear zone southward of the NE monsoon flow (aka the Polar Front-the mean November position of which is between Luzon and Taiwan). Such disturbances often develop off Mindanao in December when the NE monsoon is strong and can cause serious flooding there. On rare occasions an overrunning rain pattern will develop over Luzon from such patterns.

For the Record, most WPAC Typhoons develop in the Monsoon Trough rather than an ITCZ. The ITCZ is the convergence zone between the opposing Trades of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The Monsoon Trough has easterly Trades on the equatorward side of a trough of Low Pressure and deep westerly cross equatorial flow equatorward of the Trough. Horizontal Cyclonic shear within the trough results in the development of discrete circulations which track along the trough until they develop and head NW out of the trough. This,incidentally, is why the NIO has no activity in July and August because the monsoon trough is over land.


Steve

I stand corrected sir. I still sometimes make that mistake. When I look at the NIO I always think monsoon trough, but because I mistakenly thought the monsoon trough only occurred over the Indian Ocean, I tended to think of the WestPAc more like the Atlantic. Thanks for the very good correction.

[Aslkahuna]

In the Northern Hemisphere, Monsoon Troughs are found extending from just off the W.Cst of African-across the Arabian Sea, India, SE Asia, The NWP where it gradually slopes down in Latitude merging with the true ITCZ well SE of Guam. A weaker Monsoon Trough is found in EPAC and occasionally extends into the SW Caribbean.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

02/0230 UTC 17.3N 125.2E T2.5/2.5 97W -- West Pacific

TS intensity

[Infdidoll]

Looks like the disturbance is developing in the horizontal shear zone southward of the NE monsoon flow (aka the Polar Front-the mean November position of which is between Luzon and Taiwan). Such disturbances often develop off Mindanao in December when the NE monsoon is strong and can cause serious flooding there. On rare occasions an overrunning rain pattern will develop over Luzon from such patterns.

For the Record, most WPAC Typhoons develop in the Monsoon Trough rather than an ITCZ. The ITCZ is the convergence zone between the opposing Trades of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. The Monsoon Trough has easterly Trades on the equatorward side of a trough of Low Pressure and deep westerly cross equatorial flow equatorward of the Trough. Horizontal Cyclonic shear within the trough results in the development of discrete circulations which track along the trough until they develop and head NW out of the trough. This,incidentally, is why the NIO has no activity in July and August because the monsoon trough is over land.


Steve

Wow, Steve! Great info...Thank you! Your expertise is very much appreciated along with Pete's. I never thought I'd spend my leisure time so obsessed with weather phenomenons, but I'm learning a lot and enjoying this.

[dexterlabio]

So PAGASA just upgraded it into a tropical depression named TINO. They said it is moving northwest, passing off the coasts of northeastern tip of luzon then in Batanes. However, if you look into the weather maps of JMA, they have it moving westwards going to northern luzon, then it is gone when you look into the 72 hour weather map, meaning it has dissipated. Maybe JMA anticipates the northeast surge to track the system away from the north.

[oaba09]

[oaba09]

Lost latitude
200911020600 17.6 124.8 20
200911020000 18 125.3 20
200911011800 17.8 126.3 20
200911011200 16.2 128.2 20
200911010600 16 129.8 20
200911010000 16 131.2 20
200910311800 14.6 132.3 15
200910311200 12.5 134.8 15
200910310600 12.5 135 15

[oaba09]

Image showing mirinae, 97W, and a possible build up near guam...

[metenthusiast]

Good evening and good afternoon guys. I just read typhoon2000's forecast for 97W (Tino). Is their forecast track even remotely possible?

[oaba09]

Good evening and good afternoon guys. I just read typhoon2000's forecast for 97W (Tino). Is their forecast track even remotely possible?

wow...is this possible??? I'm expecting this system to move further NW......what do you guys think?

[HURAKAN]

Funny the typhoon2000 track and PAGASA's are completely different!

[oaba09]

it seems to be moving SW...

[oaba09]

Funny the typhoon2000 track and PAGASA's are completely different!

LOL yeah......kinda shows the predicament we're in.....this is the reason why I rely more to this site than PAGASA....