WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W

[metenthusiast]

Funny the typhoon2000 track and PAGASA's are completely different!

You bet. I was actually stunned when I saw their forecast. Never thought it possible based on the analysis I read from jtwc... I'm confused.

[oaba09]

Funny the typhoon2000 track and PAGASA's are completely different!

You bet. I was actually stunned when I saw their forecast. Never thought it possible based on the analysis I read from jtwc... I'm confused.

same here

[metenthusiast]

Funny the typhoon2000 track and PAGASA's are completely different!

You bet. I was actually stunned when I saw their forecast. Never thought it possible based on the analysis I read from jtwc... I'm confused.

same here

That's why I wanted to know from our friends here who if this forecast track is even remotely possible. In my opinion it seems improbable because of the lack of a strong steering mechanism like the STR. I believe I read that there's an incoming monsoon or cold front and I wonder if that's strong enough to make this system turn drastically to the SW and on such a short time?

[ricmood]

Any news about that buildup near Guam?

[oaba09]

That's why I wanted to know from our friends here who if this forecast track is even remotely possible. In my opinion it seems improbable because of the lack of a strong steering mechanism like the STR. I believe I read that there's an incoming monsoon or cold front and I wonder if that's strong enough to make this system turn drastically to the SW and on such a short time?

Losing latitude

TPPN11 PGTW 021204

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (E OF LUZON)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 16.7N

D. 124.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 1.0. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0837Z 16.9N 124.8E SSMS
02/0940Z 16.8N 124.8E SSMI


SMITH

[oaba09]

Any news about that buildup near Guam?

no warnings so far

[ricmood]

Any news about that buildup near Guam?

no warnings so far

Hope it dont develop into something. I'm more concern of that that 97W. Still far away and plenty of time to intensify.

[metenthusiast]

That's why I wanted to know from our friends here who if this forecast track is even remotely possible. In my opinion it seems improbable because of the lack of a strong steering mechanism like the STR. I believe I read that there's an incoming monsoon or cold front and I wonder if that's strong enough to make this system turn drastically to the SW and on such a short time?

Losing latitude

TPPN11 PGTW 021204

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (E OF LUZON)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 16.7N

D. 124.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 1.0. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0837Z 16.9N 124.8E SSMS
02/0940Z 16.8N 124.8E SSMI


SMITH

Yeah, definitely lost latitude. Oh my, I'm watching sat loops and it seems to be an SW track and diving at a fairly steep angle... or am I seeing things?

[oaba09]

That's why I wanted to know from our friends here who if this forecast track is even remotely possible. In my opinion it seems improbable because of the lack of a strong steering mechanism like the STR. I believe I read that there's an incoming monsoon or cold front and I wonder if that's strong enough to make this system turn drastically to the SW and on such a short time?

Losing latitude

TPPN11 PGTW 021204

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (E OF LUZON)

B. 02/1130Z

C. 16.7N

D. 124.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 1.0. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0837Z 16.9N 124.8E SSMS
02/0940Z 16.8N 124.8E SSMI


SMITH

Yeah, definitely lost latitude. Oh my, I'm watching sat loops and it seems to be an SW track and diving at a fairly steep angle... or am I seeing things?

You're not seeing things coz I'm seeing the exact same thing...I guess we need to worry about rains again

[oaba09]

At first, I thought this track is crazy but it seems to be happening right now

[metenthusiast]

At first, I thought this track is crazy but it seems to be happening right now

Me too. I was actually convinced that these system is already heading northwestwards and would pose minimal threat to the country. So imagine my shock when I went to t2k and saw this forecast model. I hope some of our knowledgeable friends could clarify or justify this one and if there would be cause for concern and preparation...

[oaba09]

It will be interesting what PAGASA's latest advisory will look like

[ricmood]

PAGASA Said no chance of intensifying

[oaba09]

PAGASA Said no chance of intensifying

I'm more interested w/ the track than the intensity

[ricmood]

PAGASA made the same mistake with Miriane. I think they are more reliable with the typhoon intentsity than track.

[metenthusiast]

PAGASA Said no chance of intensifying

I'm more interested w/ the track than the intensity

Exactly. Even if this doesn't intensify, I guess this tropical depression would still bring rain to the land. It would not be good if it chooses to unload its water on areas that are already saturated and would be easily flooded. I wonder if Mirinae'sre-intensification has something to do with 97W's SW movement...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[metenthusiast]

Latest

Yup, this way to the south from the last ATCF track released by jtwc. I wonder why they're not upgrading it yet... Ah well, I'm still a novice in this field and maybe they're seeing something that I'm missing. But let me tell you that that SW movements is really disturbing...

[ozonepete]

Hey everyone. I can see why you'd be amazed by this. I'm pretty surprised myself. But it's all explainable when you know what's going on at different levels. At the moment its bark is worse than its bite.

Though hard to see clearly, the LLC is still moving west-northwest towards the NE tip of Luzon. That big ball of convection is just that - a flareup of thunderstorms caused by instability in the area. Since upper level steering winds are very weak in that area right now that big cluster of Tstorms is drifting south and west. But they're completely de-coupled from the LLC so you can't get any development of a tropical cyclone.

Those thunderstorms do contain a lot of rain, of course, and some of it may fall over areas that don't need it. It also looks like they may be starting to dissipate, hopefully.

We'll keep a close eye on it.

BTW, typhoon2000 really went out on a limb with that forecast. They were assuming the steering winds would go southwest at all levels, but you can see that hasn't happened. The JTWC and JMA have been very prudent in waiting this out, and I also still don't see much chance for development of this low.

[metenthusiast]

Hey everyone. I can see why you'd be amazed by this. I'm pretty surprised myself. But it's all explainable when you know what's going on at different levels. At the moment its bark is worse than its bite.

Though hard to see clearly, the LLC is still moving west-northwest towards the NE tip of Luzon. That big ball of convection is just that - a flareup of thunderstorms caused by instability in the area. Since upper level steering winds are very weak in that area right now that big cluster of Tstorms is drifting south and west. But they're completely de-coupled from the LLC so you can't get any development of a tropical cyclone.

Those thunderstorms do contain a lot of rain, of course, and some of it may fall over areas that don't need it. It also looks like they may be starting to dissipate, hopefully.

We'll keep a close eye on it.

BTW, typhoon2000 really went out on a limb with that forecast. They were assuming the steering winds would go southwest at all levels, but you can see that hasn't happened. The JTWC and JMA have been very prudent in waiting this out, and I also still don't see much chance for development of this low.

Thanks ozonepete! Now that you've pointed it out, I'm actually seeing on the sat loops that WNW movement. Plus, I was not aware that it was the LLC. Kinda get confusing for a novice like me when you don't fully understand what you're looking for. I'll admit that I was focused on that blob going SW thinking it to be the main circulation of the system simply because it looks so.

It's really nice to have you guys around because if you didn't point that out, I wouldn't focus more on the general structure of the TD and won't discern the NW forward movement of the whole. It just goes to show that I still have much to learn on this field... but I'm learning new things everyday. Thanks again!