Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST SUN NOV 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERS
THE SOUTHWEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH IS
ALSO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TO JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

LATEST VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS HAVING A HARD TIME TO REMAIN INTACT AS DRY AIR
INTRUSION COMES IN FROM THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED TO A MID TO UPPER
HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS LINKED TO THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
SEEING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY DOPPLER RADAR. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THEY MOVE INLAND. ALSO...THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE ISLAND SHOULD OBSERVE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS THE LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME APPROACHES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY GET CLOSER. A FEW PLACES MAY RECEIVE MEASUREMENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEFORE 8 PM AST...BUT AFTERWARD...DRY AIR AND
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY SINCE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE
IT DISSIPATES THIS EVENING.

FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR WAS NOTED AT TIST AND TNCM...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL BAND HAS APPEARED TO
STALL AT LEAST MOMENTARILY BETWEEN 18.5 AND 19.5 NORTH OR JUST NORTH
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONTAL BAND TO SAG
FARTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR JUST SOUTH
ANYWAY AFFECTING TJBQ...TJSJ...TIST AND TNCM. OTHER STATIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 02/18Z. NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT TO
CONTINUE.


&&

.MARINE...LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS.

BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS WITHIN
THE SURF ZONE. THEREFORE...THE RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE HIGH.
STAY OUT FROM THE WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENT IS OVER.

FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST SUN NOV 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE CUTOFF LOW SVRL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF 20N
ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTENSE HEATING AND STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WERE ABLE TO OVERCOME MID LEVEL CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SCNTRL PR LATE IN THE DAY. CONVECTION
HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

FRONTAL BDRY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED TO LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVR THE CNTRL
ATLC HAS DISSIPATED. WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE EASTERLY IN THE LOWEST
10KFT AND AIR MASS HAS DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLY SINCE 01/12Z AS
SEEN ON LATEST 02/00Z JSJ SOUNDING. MODELS SHOW CONTINUED DRYING
OVERNIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING UNDER AN INCH AND WITH
DISSIPATION OF FRONTAL BDRY TO THE NORTH XPCT VERY LITTLE IF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. HAVE ONLY A 10% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME VOLCANICH ASH
MAY AFFECT TKPK OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...8 FT SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLC WATERS AS INDICATED AT BUOY 41043 AND FCST BY MARINE
MODELS. SWELLS FCST TO PEAK TOMORROW AT 13 SECS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WED.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020905
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON NOV 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW LOCATED WELL NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AND LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TRYING TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM OLD BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...PROBABLY EVENTUALLY
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ST CROIX. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD STILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS EACH DAY...TO RESULT IN
SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY LIFT FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VI...TNCM...AND
TJSJ THROUGH 02/13Z. AFT 02/16Z...SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR WILL BRING A VCSH OR SHRA ACROSS
TJMZ...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ BETWEEN
02/18-02/22Z...AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TODAY...PEAKING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO.

IN ADDITION...THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS...WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. ALL
LOCAL BEACH ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THIS
SWELL EVENT IS OVER. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 020921
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST MON NOV 2 2009

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND SECTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OVER LAND. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN MAINLY EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10
MPH SO FAR THIS MORNING.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT PATCHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT THESE RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS TO HELP LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOCAL OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. IN
ADDITION...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTS OF ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO BREAKING
WAVES OF 10 FEET OR LARGER...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

$$

SR

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LOSING
ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
S OF THE LOW ALONG 29N57W 26N59W 24N64W. A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE E ALONG
41N51W 32N49W 26N50W 21N55W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 20N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N55W SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-54W...BECOMING
STRONG IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. IF THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
FRONTAL PROPERTIES...THEN THE LOW COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY WERE. THE SURFACE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NW THEN NORTHWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR 34N58W...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...IS SHEARING MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICS TO THE N. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N69W TO 6N72W MOVING W NEAR 12 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE
WAVE ALONG A LINE FROM 14N68W TO 17N63W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N24W 9N40W 12N54W 12N60W
9N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-13N BETWEEN 12W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 34W-49W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 59W-64W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM
NEAR 25N81W ALONG 24N85W 23N92W BECOMING WARM ALONG 21N94W TO
18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 90W-94W. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO TO NEAR
16N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SRN GULF WITH AXIS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE NW PORTION OF GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE N. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR DIPS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 82W-88W ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW BASIN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 76W-84W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 11N85W AND INTO THE E
PACIFIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 69W S OF 17N. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLY SUPPORTED
BY THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 13N69W TO 6N72W. LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW
OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 36N75W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N76W EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W
CONTINUING INTO THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N72W PROVIDING DRY AIR
ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 29N57W 26N59W 24N64W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 34N58W
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING S ALONG
26N50W 21N55W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N64W TO
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-54W...BECOMING STRONG IN SOME AREAS
NEAR THE FRONT. THE LOW SYSTEM...SURFACE TROUGH...AND FRONT ARE
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N55W WHICH IS DRAWING UP
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. IF THE SURFACE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL
PROPERTIES...IT MAY BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL SYSTEM. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TO THE E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N31W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEDGED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N55W AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERING THE ERN ATLC E OF 24W CENTERED OVER AFRICA NEAR
23N15W.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

U

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
327 PM AST MON NOV 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN PR AND
PORTIONS OF THE VI...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS SW PR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY MID EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES DUE TO THE
LARGE NE SWELLS IMPACTING THE AREA.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE CARIB
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA A WEEK FROM
NOW. WILL WAIT AND SEE ABOUT THIS. STILL...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN NE OF THE
AREA WITH PR/VI IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NE SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
UNPROTECTED WATERS.

[msbee]

should we be watching to the West?

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

As I recall Lenny came at us from the west in 1999.

[cycloneye]

should we be watching to the West?

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

As I recall Lenny came at us from the west in 1999.

This time the models have it moving north to NW and not east.But lets watch it just in case because the tropics many times are full of surprises.

[msbee]

full of surprises? absolutely
I seem to remember Omar last year came from the west too so I am always leery of things in the west in November.
We obviously still cannot let down our guard.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been requiered for Guadeloupe and Martinica this afternoon, for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. I will keep you informed as usual if anything happens. Stay tuned.
http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene

[Gustywind]

full of surprises? absolutely
I seem to remember Omar last year came from the west too so I am always leery of things in the west in November.
We obviously still cannot let down our guard.

You're 100% right and it's an euphemisma. It's not the moment to let our guard islanders! November brings often surprises as you well said it Msbee . Let's see wait and see...

[Gustywind]

Here is the yellow alert given by Meteo-France Guadeloupe at 5 PM.
Yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms

Synopsis and Observations
The showers without being exceptionnals, are pretty abundants on the island of Guadeloupe for many days.
The amount of water reported since Thursday are becoming important.
So, in 4 days we have measured or estimated 80 to 130 millimeters mostly on Basse-Terre (less on the area of Vieux-Habitants/Basse-Terre) with higher values up to 150-200 millimeters on the localities of Sainte-Rose/Deshaies.
On the eastern tip of Guadeloupe (Grande-Terre) except the southern part where the amount of water are weaker, we measured 80 to 120 millimeters and until 200 to 280 millimeters in the are between les Abymes, Morne à l’eau and Le Moule!

Forecasts
Until at least tommorow night, we forecast again rain showers sometimes abundant and tstorms too, sometimes strong.

Consequences/Commentaries
Be prudent because of the amount of water already fallen, floodings can occur rapidly. Be careful if you have to go in the mountains.

Summary
The risk associated with this feature is moderate.
The impact occured is moderate too.

Validity Duration of the feature
From Monday 2sd of November 5 PM to at least Tuesday 3rd of November 5 PM.

Next weather forecast
Tommrow Tuesday before 6 H 30 AM.


Gustywind

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER
WATERS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN A
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT EXISTS BETWEEN
55W-64W MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS NOTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THIS SAME REGION IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 57W-67W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
EXHIBITS A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 13N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N30W 8N43W 11N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 29W-34W. DENSE OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF
51W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO NAPLES AND INTO
THE GULF ALONG 24N83W 22N92W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR
18N94W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N BETWEEN
90W-96W. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W ALONG 24N90W TO OVER NE FLORIDA
NEAR JACKSONVILLE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER AIR COVERS THE
NW PORTION OF GULF AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES INFLUENCING THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AND A NEWLY DEFINED 1010 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
13N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N FROM JUST E OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W OVER
JAMAICA TO A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO W CUBA
NEAR 22N84W. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH
OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 67W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UPPER LOW AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W
MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE S OF 17N E OF
68W OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 73W. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS N OF 30N. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N74W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT S OF 30N E OF 60W AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
FARTHER EAST...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N55W IS
RACING NORTHWARD BUT STILL SUPPORTING A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N59W. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIPS WELL SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N BETWEEN
45W-61W. STRONG S TO SW UPPER FLOW E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 52W IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 49W-56W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N57W 28N59W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
25N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
OVER THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN SAHARA
NEAR 23N15W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW ACROSS THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N30W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE