ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[ozonepete]

Latest

Hmmm... Eye-like feature developing?

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

ABNT20 KNHC 031751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN EXTENT...HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
COSTA RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

The first HWRF plots dont do much as it tracks thru land.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

well surprised its not code red. Anyway looks like the 12Z GFDL takes it straight north towards Central Cuba as a hurricane. The 12Z HWRF moves it more NW over Honduras then curves it N to NNE back toward Western Cuba, but as a weaker system.

Quite interesting we'll be watching.

[cycloneye]

The 12z UKMET is like GFDL going northbound.



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
10.9N 82.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.11.2009 10.9N 82.5W WEAK
00UTC 04.11.2009 10.5N 82.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2009 11.4N 82.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.11.2009 11.7N 82.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2009 12.0N 82.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2009 11.7N 82.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2009 11.8N 82.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.11.2009 12.6N 80.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2009 12.9N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2009 13.5N 81.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2009 14.3N 81.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2009 15.2N 81.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2009 16.8N 81.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Ivanhater]

What I am seeing from the models, mainly the CMC, Euro and gfs. They bring this north then high pressure pushes it wnw some (Possibly in the SW Gulf) Then who knows. I find it interesting that we are even talking about a possible gulf storm this late in the season!

[cycloneye]

Here are some web cams located at the Panama canal.Looks cloudy with rain there.

Panama Canal

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF makes landfall at Belize as a hurricane.Also develops a EPAC system.

12z ECMWF loop

[fci]

well surprised its not code red. Anyway looks like the 12Z GFDL takes it straight north towards Central Cuba as a hurricane. The 12Z HWRF moves it more NW over Honduras then curves it N to NNE back toward Western Cuba, but as a weaker system.

Quite interesting we'll be watching.

Well if 97L follows the pattern of this 2009 Hurricane Season; nothing will happen. Spin a few days and dissapate.
I highly doubt we will be tracking any system in the Cuba area or GOM

[wxman57]

Current analysis indicates weak LLC in the region. Most of the spin remains aloft.



Comparison of GFS and ECMWF at 168hrs with 1mb increments. Euro loses the closed low. Same general movement to the NW. Note that both models move the low northward into increasingly hostile upper-level wind flow. The Euro, beyond 168hrs, does show a closed low moving westward into Belize, dissipating the storm over Mexico. Fine with me. Even better if it never develops at all.

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

[tolakram]

Is it possible to be spinning too fast?

[dixiebreeze]

Turkey and 'cane for Thanksgiving?

[Ivanhater]

On the 12 Z Euro, which develops 97L into a pretty strong hurricane, shows low pressure in the central and northern gulf. This might allow 97 to remain offshore and not dissipate over land. Still to early to say, but most of the models are bullish on this system, and unlike last time, we have a developing system right now.

[Sanibel]

My gut says conditions to its north erode it and wear it down. But what do I know?


Very similar to Martha. (Martha dissipated in place)


On the other hand maybe jinftl's warm SST's might finally come into play long after being written off.

[tolakram]

It's starting to pulse some deeper convection.



In a more updated loop you can clearly see the convection being sheared off (or at least it appears that way).

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Derek Ortt]

very worried about what would happen if the ECMWF were to occur. That would mean a slow moving hurricane affecting Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador... 3 countries that have suffered greatly from flooding and mudslides from previous hurricanes. After Mitch, Honduras has a deforestation problem as well

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a weak TD from at least a visible Sat. presentation. Needs deeper convection.

[wxman57]

Looks like a weak TD from at least a visible Sat. presentation. Needs deeper convection.

Quite true - deeper convection is needed to upgrade it to a TD.