Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
848 PM AST MON NOV 2 2009

.UPDATE...LATEST 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED PW VALUES OF
1.53...BUT VERY DRY AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SATELITE
IMAGES...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
INDICATED AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...MOVING TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE FORECAST WITH ONGOING
CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST TUE NOV 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE LOCALLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH RIDGING
OCCURRING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMNANTS LINGERING ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...STILL EXPECT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO
FEATURE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WELL CAPPED...WITH DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT GRADUALLY CREEPING AS FAR NORTHWEST AS BETWEEN
ST CRUX AND VIEQUES. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD STILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS EACH DAY...TO RESULT IN SOME CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND
PROBABLY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...IT STILL APPEARS THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
VI...TNCM...AND TJSJ THROUGH 03/13Z. AFT 03/16Z...SHRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PR WILL BRING
A VCSH OR SHRA ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE SITES BETWEEN 03/18-03/22Z...AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON LATEST BUOY AND MODEL DATA...THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS SHOULD BE PEAKING NOW THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS MORNING...BUT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. THESE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

IN ADDITION...THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS...WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. ALL
LOCAL BEACH ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THIS
SWELL EVENT IS OVER. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

[msbee]

Good Morning
Interesting analysis this morning from Crownweather about the disturbed weather located in the southwest corner of the Caribbean.
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Possible Development In The Southwest Caribbean:

I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather located in the southwest corner of the Caribbean this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deeper thunderstorm activity this morning along with a evident spin in the clouds. QuikSCAT showed no low-level circulation, so I suspect that there is a mid-level circulation associated with this area of disturbed weather. Wind shear analysis indicates that there is around 10 knots of shear in this area and this is favorable for development. The entire area of disturbed weather is stationary and the wind aloft around this system are very weak and this suggests little movement over the next couple of days.

There are three possibilities for this system:

The first is that this system remains nearly stationary for the next two to three days and then tracks slowly northwestward just offshore of the coast of Central America this weekend before coming onshore on the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. The first scenario is being forecast by the GFS model.

The second possible scenario is that the energy and moisture from this system is pushed westward into Panama and eventually the eastern Pacific as we head into this weekend and next week. This is being forecast by the NOGAPS model.

The third possible scenario is that this system remains stationary through the end of this week and then tracks northward to near the Cayman Islands by Monday morning and then is pushed west-northwest by building high pressure to the north and it brushes the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late next Tuesday. This is being forecast by the European model.

Right now, I'm leaning more towards scenarios 1 and 3 and think that this system will remain nearly stationary for the next two to three days and that we will start seeing some forward motion from it this weekend. A track northwestward through the western Caribbean is quite possible this weekend into early next week with development and intensification through this entire timeframe. In addition to all of this, it appears that this area is supportive of development as wind shear profiles are forecast to be favorable for at least the next few days and the synoptic setup in this entire area is still summer-like and this area still has not experienced a strong enough cold front to end the Hurricane Season.

So, here is my thinking of this system: First, I am very surprised that this system has not been designated an Invest and I strongly suspect that it will be tagged as an Invest at some point today. I expect slow development over the next two to three days as this disturbed weather remains stationary over the southwest corner of the Caribbean. It would not surprise me to see this system upgraded to a tropical depression by the end of this week. By this weekend, I think this system will slowly track northwestward just offshore of the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua as it slowly intensifies. As we get into next week, I think this system will be in the western Caribbean, possibly as a tropical storm, on Monday or Tuesday halfway between Belize and the Cayman Islands.

I will be keeping a very close eye on this area of disturbed weather and will keep you all updated. All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this area of disturbed weather. Check back at least once a day for the latest.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EST Wednesday morning.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe and Martinica are always under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Whereas the night was pretty calm without any showers and tstorms. Let's wait and see what could happens today. I will keep your informed. Stay tuned.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO THE
14N65W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY
TO KNOW IF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS RELATED MORE TO THE WAVE
OR MORE TO THE 14N65W CYCLONIC CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 11N14W TO 10N40W TO 9N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N62W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
20W...FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
12N28W 7N31W. THE SHOWERS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 27W
AND 30W MAY BE RELATED TO THIS TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 16N. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 14N65W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
60W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM MAINLAND
VENEZUELA TO ITS OFFSHORE ISLANDS BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...CLOSE
TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
10N66W IN NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N83W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND
84W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N82W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
80W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT...
A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS AT 32N74W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...EVENTUALLY CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON
TOP OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...GOING ALONG
THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS...PURELY NORTHWARD...AND THEN
CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 57W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 20N53W TO 12N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N57W
27N60W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N62W...
TO 22N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W...
FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. ONE
SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 29N34W. A SECOND SMALL-SCALE
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 29N27W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CENTERS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 24W AND
34W. THESE TWO SMALL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE CAUGHT UP IN
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FROM 30N30W TO 8N27W.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 030901
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST TUE NOV 3 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED
MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS LIGHT...WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS TOTALING LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN EAST NORTHEASTERLY AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH THIS MORNING.

WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY
WILL BE CONTINUED DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF
ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 10 AM AST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT IN THE EASTERN EDGES
OF THE LOCAL OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

$$

SR

[cycloneye]

Here is what Dr Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground says about 97l.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:39 PM GMT on Noviembre 03, 2009

An area of low pressure with a surface circulation has developed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica. This disturbance, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days. Satellite loops clearly show that 97L has a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands have begun to develop. There is not very much heavy thunderstorm activity, though it is steadily increasing. An ASCAT pass from 10pm EST last night showed top winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms.

The disturbance is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days over the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development over the next three days. The main limiting factor for development will be the slow movement of the 97L, which will allow it to stir up cold water from the depths, cooling surface SSTs.

The forecast for 97L

Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L's chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN EXTENT...HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF
COSTA RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST TUE NOV 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL
A PASSING MID LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH PINCHES OFF A LOW JUST
NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL GROW TO
THE NORTH AND ITS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 35 NORTH WILL KEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ABRUPTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MOVES NORTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS. THIS DISRUPTS
THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR STILL HOLDS SWAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
ONLY THE WEAKEST CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE TO FORM. THAT CONVECTION
HAS BEEN SEEN JUST NORTH OF PONCE...DOWNSTREAM FROM VIEQUES AND
WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM SAINT THOMAS. STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A PASSING WAVE NEAR
66 WEST AND SOUTH OF 16 NORTH. MODELS ARE NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT
AS TO THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE THAT IS EAST OF
US AND THE NAM APPEARS TO EXAGGERATE THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIR MASS...MAKING THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS EASIER TO BELIEVE. BOTH
MODELS BRING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE ISLAND AFTER 18Z.
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD ALREADY BE SEEING SOME OF THE
MOISTURE...BUT REALLY HAVE NOT AND SO HAVE DELAYED THE BETTER
MOISTURE ARRIVAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS MOISTURE IS
STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAYER BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MORNINGS IN THE NORTHEAST AND IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOONS. ON MONDAY ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL COME IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND IT WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE STRENGTHENING OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TO SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT KITTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS... WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VI...TIST...AND TJPS IN PR THROUGH 03/22Z. AFT
04/04Z...SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS
TERRITORIES AS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
MOVES WESTWARD. THEREFORE...TKPK...TNCM...TISX AND TIST HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO OBSERVE SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...INDUCING BRIEF MVFR FOR THIS PERIOD. REST OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES TO REMAIN VFR TIL LATE WED MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY AND BREAKERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BEACHES HAVE DECREASED. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WAS DROPPED JUST AFTER NOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVE WATCH MODEL HAS BEEN
RUNNING ONE HALF TO ONE METER TOO HIGH OVERALL...BUT A BRIEF PEAK
DID REACH THE HEIGHT FORECAST THIS MORNING AT BUOY 41043. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COME DOWN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
NEXT 15 HOURS AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN BEFORE SUNDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN...
WHERE NOT EXPOSED TO ATLANTIC PASSAGES...DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER
PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 032345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 66W-70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE VENEZUELA
COASTLINE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. A 1008 MB IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 6N22W 8N32W 9N41W 10N53W
10N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 9W-16W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS
FROM 11N30W TO 5N35W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
5N36W. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 12N41W TO 8N42W
SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 10N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 43W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA ACROSS THE SE GULF
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N81W 23N85W 22N92W 18N93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE SW GULF FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
90W-97W. STRONG NE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF AS
WELL. IN FACT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA S OF
21N W OF 94W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING MOIST SWLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
SW GULF ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N81W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-83W...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 83W-88W IN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED AT 2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM 21N83W TO 19N84W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S
OF CUBA. ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE BASIN S OF 17N. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 65W-70W. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS
NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W CONTINUING ALONG 29N74W
28N77W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE S FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N81W
AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 79W-80W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N69W IS PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN
ATLC...EXCEPT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N61W TO
23N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 53W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 40W-48W...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 51W-55W. A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 28N27W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 30W-32W.

$$
WALTON

[cpdaman]

well this is related to 96L......went to ocean today up in Rockport and Gloucester MA......got some decent picks of nice sizes swell related to 96L ...which i will attach from gf/s's camera tommorrow.....just a nice look to see good swell in the water ....approx 6 ft. swell ...which most surfers (not in cali or HI) will tell you is very solid.

p.s if anyone is interested in more pics i look to make it to somewhere on the mass coast friday as most global models forecast a Low to undergo Bombogenesis off capecod Fri am....should make for nice swell or will post in winter forums should wachusett mt. get buried and in that case snowboarding will be on tap.

[cycloneye]

well this is related to 96L......went to ocean today up in Rockport and Gloucester MA......got some decent picks of nice sizes swell related to 96L ...which i will attach from gf/s's camera tommorrow.....just a nice look to see good swell in the water ....approx 6 ft. swell ...which most surfers (not in cali or HI) will tell you is very solid.

p.s if anyone is interested in more pics i look to make it to somewhere on the mass coast friday as most global models forecast a Low to undergo Bombogenesis off capecod Fri am....should make for nice swell or will post in winter forums should wachusett mt. get buried and in that case snowboarding will be on tap.

Here in the Caribbean,we got the high surf first than the east coast of the U.S.Here the peak was between 8-10 foot waves.Waves are going down now.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED NOV 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR...WEST...AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
TODAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CUBA THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL NOVEMBER WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...AND FAIRLY LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IF LATEST GFS IS
CORRECT...EXPECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WHILE SWELLS HAVE BEEN SUBSIDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL WAVES NEAR 10 FEET IN THE SURF
ZONE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF NORTHERLY
SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S. LATE IN
THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WILL BRING INCREASING
SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TJSJ VICINITY THROUGH
ABOUT 04/13Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. THEN...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 04/17Z
THROUGH ABOUT 04/22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ANY VOLCANIC ASH OR STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES
TODAY.

[cycloneye]

Code Red

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM...FROM
30 PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 16N64W 14N69W 12N70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N11W TO 6N20W TO 7N31W TO 10N46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 2W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W
AND 15W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED
AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 81W SIX HOURS AGO HAS
MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND NOW IS ALONG THE LINE FROM A 24N77W
BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOVES ACROSS HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA AND IN BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE BASE OF THE 24N77W 16N78W
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 10N TO 18N.
THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE HAD WESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE
LAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. LET US SEE IF IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. EARLIER ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS THAT WERE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W
EITHER HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AND/OR HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING
THEMSELVES.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STARTS AT 31N70W AND EXTENDS TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W...PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EVENTUALLY CURVING TO THE
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN FLORIDA AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...GOING ALONG
THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND THEN CURVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF
86W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 55W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 55W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 32N42W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N28W TO 10N24W. SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 22W AND 34W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 23N45W TO 11N46W. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM
21N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W
AND 55W.

$$
MT