ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dean4Storms]

Convection has really fired over the center this evening. I think we got a player!

[AJC3]

Convection re-developing over the center for the second time in less than 6 hours. And the satellite loops have shown a considerably strong mid-level circulation for how long now? In the kind of environment this is in, these are pretty good indicators that a very viable, deep center is forming. With enough continuous pulling up at the mid and upper levels, the lower levels will come along...

Over the last 24 hours, based on satellite appearance, it appears to have been trying to transition from a banded-type low to more of a CDO type system. I agree with the consensus that this one is a "go".

[Ivanhater]

Really going tonight

[cycloneye]

For those members who joined tonight and dont know this,recon will fly on Wednesday afternoon.I am eagered to see what will recon find tommorow.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-159

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF COSTA RICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/15151Z
D. 11.0N 82.0W
E. 04/1930Z TO 04/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[ozonepete]

For those members who joined tonight and dont know this,recon will fly on Wednesday afternoon.I am eagered to see what will recon find tommorow.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-159

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF COSTA RICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/15151Z
D. 11.0N 82.0W
E. 04/1930Z TO 04/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

So am I. This looks more organized for such a beginning stage than most of the TCs we've seen this season. It looks tropical, and it looks "unsheared".

[Ivanhater]

Pretty strong barbs now

[ozonepete]

Pretty strong barbs now

Well, wait. Although there's some interesting red barbs in there, most of them are black, and the black barbs indicate possible rain contamination and should'nt be included in the analysis. (Quiksact can't see the surface winds through heavy precip.)

The next few sweeps should tell us a lot more...

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

Impressive

[JonathanBelles]

I looks very good in the upper levels, but the lower levels are still weak according to QS. With this situation, what is the best way to see the lower levels?

[ozonepete]

I looks very good in the upper levels, but the lower levels are still weak according to QS. With this situation, what is the best way to see the lower levels?

Quikscat isn't reliable much right now. It can't see through heavy precip so it is not very useful as the precip increases over the center. Wxman57 has used local observations from ships and buoys where there are no land stations, but they are few and far between. Most of the analysis from here on in will come from whatever ship and buoy reports we can get along with Dvorak estimates, which get better as the thunderstorms around the center get more organized. (Not a lot better at first, but Dvorak and microwave satellites are all we have as the CDO develops and the center is away from land areas.)

[wxman57]

Convection is still pulsing here and there, but not in one spot. Doesn't look too much different from the past 24 hours. Actual surface obs in the area still don't show much wind. Though they're not too numerous, they don't seem to confirm winds nearly as high as QS estimates, but the two aren't matching up exactly over the same areas. Maybe if we could get one single QS that actually covers the whole system we could compare surface obs place for place with QS. Figures that QS has missed this area for the past 4 passes. It's the only tropical strip missed.

[Ivanhater]

microwave is showing impressive internal banding structure though. Structurally it is much better organized than yesterday

[ozonepete]

microwave is showing impressive internal banding structure though. Structurally it is much better organized than yesterday

Totally agree. It's there to see. Look at Hurakan's post.

[ozonepete]

Convection is still pulsing here and there, but not in one spot. Doesn't look too much different from the past 24 hours. Actual surface obs in the area still don't show much wind. Though they're not too numerous, they don't seem to confirm winds nearly as high as QS estimates, but the two aren't matching up exactly over the same areas. Maybe if we could get one single QS that actually covers the whole system we could compare surface obs place for place with QS. Figures that QS has missed this area for the past 4 passes. It's the only tropical strip missed.

And, once again, QuikScat has rain contamination issues.

[Ivanhater]

gfs ensembles

[ozonepete]

Convection is still pulsing here and there, but not in one spot.

I could be wrong, but it looks to me like convection is firing over the same spot.

[wyq614]

Cuba's model leans towards Belize solution, but moves it rather fast, being a system around 1000hpa just to the north of Honduras in 3 days....

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... s/presion/

[ROCK]

Nice LLC growing stronger and banding features... I am also on the "go" band wagon.

Nice to see you Ivan...been a slow year...

[gatorcane]

it's important to watch what's going on across Panama in the EPAC about 500 miles west of 97L. Some models continue to develop this area instead. If that EPAC system gets going, shear would increase across the Western Caribbean. The 00Z GFS rolling in is not quite as bullish through the first 60 hours and generally moves the area NW into Central America. Should that happen, the EPAC area could be the focus of where development may happen.

Anyway, the UKMET/GFDL/HWRF are developing 97L more quickly and I believe they are seeing a large weakness in the ridge way off to the north passing by the NE CONUS and digging down into the Western Atlantic, eroding the Bermuda High ridge....that would give 97L just enough of a few days tug N or NNE, if it were deep enough (then some H5 ridging could develop again across the Eastern CONUS/GOM, which would block northward progress of 97L down the road).