ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[wxman57]

Note that the 12Z center estimate is well SE of the convection. However, surface obs indicate that the LLC is well NW of the 12Z estimate.

[HURAKAN]

Nice loop

[ROCK]

I have to agree...by the time RECON gets there low end TS is a good possibility. Nice CDO over center, good presentation not more to hold it back ATTM......are they flying out of St Croix?

[cycloneye]

Note that the 12Z center estimate is well SE of the convection. However, surface obs indicate that the LLC is well NW of the 12Z estimate.

Recon will have the real answer about the structure of the system.

[HURAKAN]

97L could have a very similar track

[ronjon]

The key to the future forecast track is going to be Ida's strength. A rapid intensification, which could happen, will pull the system further north according to the GFDL, UKMET, HWRF, and BAMD models. Right now, I don't see anything in the way for deepening other then proximity to land. The GFDL has been indicating a CAT 2 or 3 hurricane over the last several runs. THE HWRF shows a strong tropical storm - however its path is over NE Honduras so that weakens the intensity forecast. If it stays weak, then its more likely to head NW into CA.

[ROCK]

Note that the 12Z center estimate is well SE of the convection. However, surface obs indicate that the LLC is well NW of the 12Z estimate.

Not sure what the point is? Track wise? WXMN57 the nearest surface obs is 175 miles away. At this point in time you can throw surface obs out the window. 97L is compact system with great sat presentation and should be a TS by the time recon gets out there.

[ronjon]

From the NRL plot, it looks like the center may be closer to 11.8N-82W. We'll know for sure with RECON, however.

[hurricanefloyd5]

San Andres, CO (Airport)
Updated: 26 min 55 sec ago
79 °F
Light Drizzle
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 28 mph from the East
Pressure: 29.83 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Few 1100 ft
Overcast 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 ft

this is from 97L near here so winds at the surface at 25kts(30mph) and so we could be seeing a TD forming or already formed here!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 041328
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1328 UTC WED NOV 4 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091104 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091104 1200 091105 0000 091105 1200 091106 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 81.9W 12.1N 83.1W 12.7N 84.4W 13.3N 85.6W
BAMD 11.5N 81.9W 12.1N 82.9W 12.9N 84.0W 13.8N 85.1W
BAMM 11.5N 81.9W 12.1N 83.0W 12.7N 84.2W 13.2N 85.4W
LBAR 11.5N 81.9W 12.6N 82.9W 14.1N 84.0W 15.5N 85.0W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091106 1200 091107 1200 091108 1200 091109 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 86.9W 15.1N 89.4W 16.4N 91.3W 17.2N 93.2W
BAMD 15.0N 86.1W 18.3N 87.7W 22.0N 88.7W 27.9N 89.7W
BAMM 13.9N 86.6W 15.5N 88.7W 17.4N 90.3W 19.4N 92.0W
LBAR 16.6N 85.8W 18.6N 85.2W 18.7N 84.1W 18.5N 83.7W
SHIP 39KTS 34KTS 31KTS 27KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 81.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 344DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 81.1W
WNDCUR = 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[boca]

It looks like we have a TD on the sat presentation but we have to wait for recon.This is the steering level.If this does develop into a TS the steering flow would take it west into CA.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[Evil Jeremy]

Here is something to chew on: The Epac disturbance has higher vorticity levels than 97L. What do you guys make of that?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF

[wxman57]

Note that the 12Z center estimate is well SE of the convection. However, surface obs indicate that the LLC is well NW of the 12Z estimate.

Recon will have the real answer about the structure of the system.

That position estimate was just updated by a new model run. The new position is 80-90 miles NW of the previous 12Z estimate - Now at 11.5N/81.9W.

[ronjon]

It looks like we have a TD on the sat presentation but we have to wait for recon.This is the steering level.If this does develop into a TS the steering flow would take it west into CA.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Boca, that's current UL winds - not forecasted. If you run back in time you'll see the ridge retreating toward the east and a trough coming down into the north-central GOM. I think for the next few days, as NHC says, it'll be nearly stationary - I'd anticipate a slow drift to the N or N-NW based on the GFDL & Euro.

[wxman57]

Here's a current analysis. I indicated the old 12Z position estimate (10.6N/81W) and the new 12Z estimate (11.5N/81.9W). The new estimate is about 90-95 miles NW of the previous estimate. More importantly, it's under that heavy convection. Obs in the area support the new position a lot better. Looks like a TD now.

[tolakram]

In my opinion the models have no idea what shear will be like down the road, so this thing has a limited life.



No place to go.

[cycloneye]

It looks like we have a TD on the sat presentation but we have to wait for recon.This is the steering level.If this does develop into a TS the steering flow would take it west into CA.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

If the system gets strong,the track would be more NNW as GFDL and HWRF prog.

[hurricanefloyd5]

any chance of Rapid strengthening with this system?