Dr Gray's august outlook:14/8/3 but less storm days

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 3/aug2003/

No change from the may 30th outlook but read the report and you will see why he base his thinking of a slightly above average season and less storms and hurricane days.Scroll down to #6 the discussion and there is the real explanation of why the no change of numbers and the less days for storms so you dont have to read all that long report.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Ya it sucks. The only reason he kept it up was because of the early spirt we had. Unexpected values in June and July will lead to below normal September. I swear something is making these seasons dead when it was suppose to be busy. Well you can all read it.....

[wxman57]

I've read his report. The gist of it is that the rest of 2003 will be fairly close to normal, which is less active than predicted in May. The only reason he didn't lower the number predicted is because of the 4 storms already formed. August is predicted to be average (3 storms/1 hurricane), September average (4 storms), and October about average with 3 storms. That totals 14.

But as I have said, watch the steering patterns and not the numbers. Note where 90L has been tracking. Other Cape Verde/Caribbean storms will likely take a similar track, but may be major hurricanes. Florida to the Carolinas is at particularly high risk this year.

[cycloneye]

Well the initial enthusiasm here at june and july is comming to a dead end with this Dr Gray's findings because now we will expect a normal rest of the season with less days of storms and canes.

[ameriwx2003]

Well..Dr Gray has kept the same numbers. Like wxman57 has pointed out it not the numbers but the track. If Dr Gray is correct then we have 10 more storms to watch the rest of the year and the way the pattern is shaping up the US coast could be in for a busy time:):)

[cycloneye]

Yes regarding to landfalls yes Dr Gray says yes the east coast will have to watch for landfalls this season but again after the furur of the past weeks the reallity check has arrived and a normal season is instore instead of an active season.

[rainstorm]

reading his forecast is very depressing. he has drastically reduced the cane days. also this comment:
"We still consult our earlier August forecast schemes to see what they predict. These two previous 1 August forecast schemes which use African rainfall activity indicate that 2003 seasonal NTC activity will be 78 and 93 percent of the average Atlantic basin season."

[Guest]

So is the GOM out of the woods for the rest of the year? Right now we have a high pressure sitting over it - not conducive for development? Is that forecasted to stay in the Gulf for an extended period of time?

I thinK Dr Gray made the right decision in not changing the numbers. Only time will tell - when is his next update?

[rainstorm]

sept 2 i think.

[ameriwx2003]

I think sept 2nd is correct and I believe he will issue an October forecast also more or less a monthly only update:)

[JCT777]

I like to track activity in the tropical Atlantic as much as anyone, but with all of the rain my area has received this year (especially the last 6 days) - the last thing I need or want is to have a tropical storm or hurricane affect my area. Not unless it happens after a 3 week+ dry spell!

[Stormsfury]

Well, between now and the end of the season, Gray is still expecting 10 more storms ... that's an average season in just a 3 months time. You can't have a record 8 storms in one month all the time. Still the bottom line is a progged 14 storms is still above average.

Anyways, the Carolinas down to Florida are at particularly high risk with this current pattern as was already stated, but also, with the potential for 10 more expected storms, it doesn't mean anyone should let their guard down.

[Steve H.]

I agree stormfury, 10 storms to go with an average seson from here on. This doesn't mean that we can all relax! The track of systems that DO develop is what counts. It only takes one!! That being said, we may have limited activity 'til the end of the month. I expect October to be a dangerous month this year. Late September and October have generated some intense hurricanes. This is the time for GOM people to watch, so NO the GOM is not out of the woods. If our little low near the Lesser Antilles diminishes though, I may take up bird watching the next few weeks :o Cheers!!

[wxman57]

The Gulf of Mexico is most certainly <b>NOT</b> out of the woods for 2003. Even if the current pattern persists through October, there will be times when the east U.S. trof breaks down or weakens. All it takes is a single tropical wave moving into the NW Caribbean and the central Gulf may be looking at a major hurricane heading for land. And that scenario is more likely than not.

[Guest]

Thanks for the comments folks. Appreciate it.

[Lindaloo]

you just had to ask ticka.

[wx247]

Like I have said many times before... it only takes one... :o

[Guest]

I'm sorry Lindaloo

Like always I have a great need to put my foot in my mouth syndrome!

How are your arms today? How long you going to be off work? It has to be hard not being able to drive or do the other stuff you are so accustom to doing!

Patricia

[Lindaloo]

lol ticka. i am at work today but was put on restriction. my arms feel okay today, the left has finally quit throbbing.

trust me, i have the same syndrome.

[Guest]

Did you drive? You are superwoman then if you did?