ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 041544
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 04 20091104
153630 2903N 08924W 3441 08628 0395 -280 -523 255032 032 999 999 03
153700 2900N 08923W 3441 08628 0396 -280 -525 255032 032 999 999 03
153730 2858N 08923W 3442 08628 0396 -280 -526 256032 032 999 999 03
153800 2856N 08922W 3441 08630 0397 -281 -526 256031 031 999 999 03
153830 2853N 08922W 3442 08629 0398 -285 -527 255030 030 999 999 03
153900 2851N 08921W 3442 08629 0398 -285 -526 257030 030 999 999 03
153930 2848N 08920W 3438 08625 0388 -285 -527 257031 031 999 999 03
154000 2846N 08920W 3439 08625 0388 -285 -530 255030 030 999 999 03
154030 2844N 08919W 3438 08627 0389 -285 -533 254030 030 999 999 03
154100 2841N 08919W 3438 08627 0389 -288 -531 253029 029 999 999 03
154130 2839N 08918W 3439 08626 0389 -290 -529 251029 029 999 999 03
154200 2836N 08917W 3438 08627 0390 -290 -527 253028 028 999 999 03
154230 2834N 08917W 3439 08627 0390 -290 -522 254027 027 999 999 03
154300 2831N 08916W 3439 08628 0396 -288 -520 252027 027 999 999 03
154330 2829N 08916W 3442 08634 0402 -285 -520 252027 027 999 999 03
154400 2827N 08915W 3443 08631 0403 -287 -518 253027 027 999 999 03
154430 2824N 08914W 3443 08632 0404 -288 -513 253026 026 999 999 03
154500 2822N 08914W 3442 08636 0404 -290 -512 254026 026 999 999 03
154530 2819N 08913W 3442 08633 0404 -290 -512 254025 026 999 999 03
154600 2819N 08913W 3442 08633 0404 -287 -514 251026 026 999 999 03
$$
;

1145 miles to the target point.

[Evil Jeremy]

I have a feeling we might be having a small RI going on, if not now then coming up soon. Either way, the NHC needs to classify this as a TS at 1PM, regardless of if recon will be in there in time (which they won't be).

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 041554
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 05 20091104
154630 2814N 08912W 3441 08637 0403 -290 -520 250025 025 020 000 03
154700 2812N 08911W 3443 08629 0402 -290 -525 253025 025 023 000 03
154730 2810N 08910W 3443 08632 0404 -290 -531 256025 025 024 000 03
154800 2808N 08909W 3442 08635 0405 -287 -535 252026 026 024 000 03
154830 2805N 08907W 3442 08637 0406 -288 -538 249025 026 023 000 03
154900 2803N 08906W 3442 08637 0406 -285 -539 245025 025 999 999 03
154930 2801N 08905W 3443 08633 0405 -285 -539 244025 025 999 999 03
155000 2758N 08904W 3443 08633 0406 -285 -539 244025 026 999 999 03
155030 2756N 08903W 3442 08636 0405 -280 -453 244027 028 999 999 03
155100 2754N 08902W 3442 08637 0405 -280 -366 246027 027 025 000 03
155130 2751N 08901W 3445 08632 0406 -280 -362 247027 027 025 000 03
155200 2749N 08900W 3442 08637 0406 -278 -368 246026 026 025 000 03
155230 2747N 08858W 3441 08638 0406 -276 -363 246026 027 024 000 03
155300 2745N 08857W 3441 08638 0406 -275 -372 250026 026 025 000 03
155330 2742N 08856W 3445 08632 0407 -275 -360 246025 025 025 000 00
155400 2740N 08855W 3442 08639 0408 -275 -389 244024 025 024 000 00
155430 2738N 08854W 3441 08640 0408 -275 -374 244025 025 024 000 00
155500 2735N 08853W 3447 08629 0408 -274 -368 244025 025 024 000 00
155530 2733N 08852W 3441 08641 0409 -275 -352 240024 025 024 000 00
155600 2731N 08851W 3443 08638 0409 -275 -339 237024 024 023 000 00
$$
;

1085 miles to the target point.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 041604
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 06 20091104
155630 2728N 08850W 3438 08649 0410 -275 -320 236023 023 023 000 03
155700 2726N 08848W 3442 08640 0411 -271 -308 236023 023 025 000 03
155730 2724N 08847W 3445 08635 0411 -270 -310 237022 023 027 000 00
155800 2722N 08846W 3445 08638 0412 -267 -307 234024 024 029 000 03
155830 2720N 08845W 3441 08645 0412 -266 -301 235024 024 027 000 00
155900 2718N 08844W 3439 08646 0412 -270 -303 232024 025 028 000 00
155930 2715N 08843W 3442 08643 0412 -269 -306 233023 024 028 000 00
160000 2713N 08842W 3442 08642 0413 -270 -309 238022 022 027 000 03
160030 2711N 08841W 3443 08642 0415 -272 -306 240020 020 027 000 00
160100 2709N 08840W 3442 08647 0416 -273 -304 236020 020 026 000 03
160130 2706N 08839W 3445 08642 0416 -275 -299 238020 020 026 000 00
160200 2704N 08838W 3440 08651 0416 -275 -297 238022 025 027 000 00
160230 2702N 08837W 3446 08638 0416 -271 -290 235027 028 029 000 03
160300 2700N 08836W 3439 08652 0416 -272 -295 234027 027 028 000 03
160330 2657N 08834W 3443 08641 0415 -270 -298 239026 026 027 000 03
160400 2655N 08833W 3442 08646 0415 -270 -302 240024 024 029 000 03
160430 2653N 08832W 3443 08642 0414 -270 -297 236025 025 028 000 00
160500 2650N 08831W 3445 08641 0415 -270 -301 238023 023 027 000 00
160530 2648N 08830W 3439 08650 0414 -270 -300 235023 023 026 000 03
160600 2646N 08829W 3447 08635 0414 -270 -294 232023 024 027 000 00
$$
;

[MGC]

Looks like TD 11 is getting its act together rather quickly. Recon should find a TS later this afternoon. Would not be surprised if this becomes a hurricane prior to landfall in Honduras......MGC

[x-y-no]

:uarrow: The crew will find Ida when they arrive.

and likely a strong Ida, if that microwave is correct.

No question in my mind - this thing is developing a good structure fast.


I note that Derek has a significantly different track than NHC - skirting the coast with a WNW bend at the end of the period.

[boca]

I wonder what impact that disturbance in the EPAC will have on the track of TD11?

[Derek Ortt]

my track is not that different. The 120 hour position is only about 120NM different.

The two tracks do indicate a very slow motion is almost assured during the next few days. I am fearful that we could see the worst flooding since Mitch

[Evil Jeremy]

I wonder what impact that disturbance in the EPAC will have on the track of TD11?

Jeff Masters thinks it will be a huge factor. He speculates that if 96-E goe6 s west, so will TD11, and that if 96 moves northward, so will TD11. He thinks they will mimic eachother's track.

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

I wonder what impact that disturbance in the EPAC will have on the track of TD11?

Jeff Masters thinks it will be a huge factor. He speculates that if 96-E goe6 s west, so will TD11, and that if 96 moves northward, so will TD11. He thinks they will mimic eachother's track.

Thanks Jeremy.

[cycloneye]

I wonder what impact that disturbance in the EPAC will have on the track of TD11?

If Invest 96E get strong and moves north,it will induce a more northern track for TD 11 as a weakness will be created.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 041614
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 07 20091104
160630 2644N 08828W 3439 08651 0415 -267 -302 231022 022 026 000 00
160700 2641N 08827W 3443 08642 0415 -265 -307 231022 022 026 000 00
160730 2639N 08826W 3441 08651 0417 -265 -309 233023 023 026 000 00
160800 2637N 08825W 3443 08645 0416 -266 -310 235022 022 025 001 00
160830 2635N 08824W 3445 08640 0415 -268 -312 233022 023 025 000 00
160900 2632N 08823W 3439 08651 0415 -269 -313 232022 022 026 000 00
160930 2630N 08822W 3446 08638 0415 -267 -308 232022 022 026 000 00
161000 2628N 08820W 3439 08652 0415 -269 -301 231022 023 026 000 00
161030 2626N 08819W 3445 08638 0415 -265 -293 228023 023 025 000 03
161100 2623N 08818W 3441 08649 0416 -265 -294 229024 025 025 000 03
161130 2621N 08817W 3441 08644 0413 -269 -287 228024 025 025 000 00
161200 2619N 08816W 3446 08641 0416 -270 -293 228025 025 024 000 00
161230 2617N 08815W 3438 08654 0416 -270 -298 228027 029 025 000 00
161300 2614N 08814W 3445 08641 0416 -265 -307 230031 031 023 000 00
161330 2612N 08813W 3443 08645 0417 -265 -306 229032 032 024 000 00
161400 2610N 08812W 3440 08653 0417 -265 -313 226030 031 025 000 00
161430 2608N 08811W 3443 08644 0416 -265 -319 225031 031 025 000 03
161500 2605N 08810W 3443 08645 0417 -263 -322 227032 032 025 000 03
161530 2603N 08809W 3442 08648 0416 -260 -330 226032 032 025 000 03
161600 2601N 08808W 3442 08649 0418 -260 -333 225031 032 026 000 00
$$
;

[x-y-no]

my track is not that different. The 120 hour position is only about 120NM different.

The two tracks do indicate a very slow motion is almost assured during the next few days. I am fearful that we could see the worst flooding since Mitch

OK, I overstated. I was mostly focusing on that they take it more over land as opposed to your track near the coast.

I'm afraid you're going to be proven right about the flooding. A slow-moving storm in that region is very bad news.

[boca]

I wonder what impact that disturbance in the EPAC will have on the track of TD11?

If Invest 96E get strong and moves north,it will induce a more northern track for TD 11 as a weakness will be created.

According to the 4am update on 96E it will be moving slowly westward. Thats if it stays a weak system.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS tracks it into the GOM,but intensity is weak.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 041624
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 08 20091104
161630 2559N 08807W 3441 08648 0416 -260 -333 224031 032 025 000 03
161700 2557N 08806W 3445 08642 0417 -260 -330 225031 032 025 000 00
161730 2554N 08805W 3439 08653 0416 -262 -323 226030 030 024 000 00
161800 2552N 08804W 3445 08639 0415 -264 -318 225029 029 024 000 00
161830 2550N 08803W 3443 08642 0414 -264 -316 222029 029 024 000 00
161900 2548N 08802W 3441 08649 0415 -263 -321 223029 029 026 000 03
161930 2545N 08800W 3445 08642 0415 -260 -321 224029 029 025 000 03
162000 2543N 08759W 3442 08645 0415 -260 -322 225029 029 024 000 03
162030 2541N 08758W 3442 08645 0416 -260 -326 226029 030 023 000 00
162100 2539N 08757W 3443 08646 0417 -259 -334 226030 031 023 000 00
162130 2536N 08756W 3442 08648 0417 -258 -338 225031 031 024 000 00
162200 2534N 08755W 3443 08645 0417 -256 -340 226030 031 024 000 00
162230 2532N 08754W 3442 08650 0420 -256 -339 227030 030 022 000 00
162300 2530N 08753W 3442 08651 0421 -255 -348 228030 030 023 000 03
162330 2527N 08752W 3438 08635 0406 -258 -344 228031 031 023 000 03
162400 2525N 08751W 3439 08632 0397 -260 -351 230031 031 023 000 00
162430 2523N 08750W 3439 08632 0396 -260 -343 230030 031 024 000 03
162500 2521N 08749W 3438 08635 0396 -263 -336 232029 029 024 000 00
162530 2518N 08748W 3438 08635 0395 -263 -334 235029 029 022 000 00
162600 2516N 08747W 3438 08633 0396 -264 -332 236028 028 024 000 03
$$
;

[RattleMan]

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
16:16:30z   25°59'N   88°07'W   344.1 hPa   8648m   1041.6 hPa   -26°C   -33.3°C   224° @ 31kt     32kt   25kt   0mm   Suspect
16:17:00z   25°57'N   88°06'W   344.5 hPa   8642m   1041.7 hPa   -26°C   -33°C   225° @ 31kt     32kt   25kt   0mm   OK
16:17:30z   25°54'N   88°05'W   343.9 hPa   8653m   1041.6 hPa   -26.2°C   -32.3°C   226° @ 30kt     30kt   24kt   0mm   OK
16:18:00z   25°52'N   88°04'W   344.5 hPa   8639m   1041.5 hPa   -26.4°C   -31.8°C   225° @ 29kt     29kt   24kt   0mm   OK
16:18:30z   25°50'N   88°03'W   344.3 hPa   8642m   1041.4 hPa   -26.4°C   -31.6°C   222° @ 29kt     29kt   24kt   0mm   OK
16:19:00z   25°48'N   88°02'W   344.1 hPa   8649m   1041.5 hPa   -26.3°C   -32.1°C   223° @ 29kt     29kt   26kt   0mm   Suspect
16:19:30z   25°45'N   88°00'W   344.5 hPa   8642m   1041.5 hPa   -26°C   -32.1°C   224° @ 29kt     29kt   25kt   0mm   Suspect
16:20:00z   25°43'N   87°59'W   344.2 hPa   8645m   1041.5 hPa   -26°C   -32.2°C   225° @ 29kt     29kt   24kt   0mm   Suspect
16:20:30z   25°41'N   87°58'W   344.2 hPa   8645m   1041.6 hPa   -26°C   -32.6°C   226° @ 29kt     30kt   23kt   0mm   OK
16:21:00z   25°39'N   87°57'W   344.3 hPa   8646m   1041.7 hPa   -25.9°C   -33.4°C   226° @ 30kt     31kt   23kt   0mm   OK
16:21:30z   25°36'N   87°56'W   344.2 hPa   8648m   1041.7 hPa   -25.8°C   -33.8°C   225° @ 31kt     31kt   24kt   0mm   OK
16:22:00z   25°34'N   87°55'W   344.3 hPa   8645m   1041.7 hPa   -25.6°C   -34°C   226° @ 30kt     31kt   24kt   0mm   OK
16:22:30z   25°32'N   87°54'W   344.2 hPa   8650m   1042.0 hPa   -25.6°C   -33.9°C   227° @ 30kt     30kt   22kt   0mm   OK
16:23:00z   25°30'N   87°53'W   344.2 hPa   8651m   1042.1 hPa   -25.5°C   -34.8°C   228° @ 30kt     30kt   23kt   0mm   Suspect
16:23:30z   25°27'N   87°52'W   343.8 hPa   8635m   1040.6 hPa   -25.8°C   -34.4°C   228° @ 31kt     31kt   23kt   0mm   Suspect
16:24:00z   25°25'N   87°51'W   343.9 hPa   8632m   1039.7 hPa   -26°C   -35.1°C   230° @ 31kt     31kt   23kt   0mm   OK
16:24:30z   25°23'N   87°50'W   343.9 hPa   8632m   1039.6 hPa   -26°C   -34.3°C   230° @ 30kt     31kt   24kt   0mm   Suspect
16:25:00z   25°21'N   87°49'W   343.8 hPa   8635m   1039.6 hPa   -26.3°C   -33.6°C   232° @ 29kt     29kt   24kt   0mm   OK
16:25:30z   25°18'N   87°48'W   343.8 hPa   8635m   1039.5 hPa   -26.3°C   -33.4°C   235° @ 29kt     29kt   22kt   0mm   OK
16:26:00z   25°16'N   87°47'W   343.8 hPa   8633m   1039.6 hPa   -26.4°C   -33.2°C   236° @ 28kt     28kt   24kt   0mm   Suspect

Max:   25°59'N   88°07'W   344.5 hPa   8653m   1042.1 hPa   -25.5°C   -31.6°C   31kt   32kt   26kt   0mm   
Min:   25°16'N   87°47'W   343.8 hPa   8632m   1039.5 hPa   -26.4°C   -35.1°C   28kt   28kt   22kt   0mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   344.1 hPa   8642m   1041.1 hPa   -26°C   -33.2°C   30kt   30kt   24kt   0mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   


Will continue decoding when we get down to operational altitude.

[fci]

I wonder what impact that disturbance in the EPAC will have on the track of TD11?

If Invest 96E get strong and moves north,it will induce a more northern track for TD 11 as a weakness will be created.

According to the 4am update on 96E it will be moving slowly westward. Thats if it stays a weak system.

No Fujiwara effect?
Is that because we are talking about weak systems?
Distance apart would be pretty minimal.