ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

Distance apart would be pretty minimal

Right now they are 500 miles apart.

[MGC]

Unless the EPAC system develops into a significant cyclone, I doubt it will have much impact on the track of TD11. Just take a look at the WV loop....TD 11 is going to be forced northward....MGC

[ronjon]

I know it's the NAM but look at the intensity of TD 11 (wow)!

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KNHC 041634
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 09 20091104
162630 2514N 08746W 3439 08632 0397 -260 -343 233028 028 024 000 03
162700 2512N 08745W 3439 08635 0398 -262 -337 235028 028 025 000 00
162730 2509N 08744W 3438 08637 0400 -261 -353 233028 029 023 001 00
162800 2507N 08743W 3439 08636 0400 -264 -329 236028 028 025 001 00
162830 2505N 08742W 3439 08637 0401 -263 -335 235028 028 028 000 00
162900 2502N 08741W 3438 08643 0404 -261 -344 234027 028 024 000 00
162930 2500N 08739W 3438 08642 0403 -261 -339 234027 028 021 000 00
163000 2458N 08738W 3439 08639 0402 -265 -328 235028 028 026 007 00
163030 2456N 08737W 3439 08637 0400 -265 -328 235027 027 030 005 00
163100 2453N 08736W 3438 08639 0401 -262 -335 236028 028 024 000 03
163130 2451N 08735W 3439 08639 0402 -265 -317 235028 028 016 000 00
163200 2449N 08734W 3441 08651 0412 -262 -321 239027 028 016 000 00
163230 2446N 08733W 3443 08642 0414 -260 -323 244027 028 021 000 03
163300 2444N 08732W 3442 08648 0418 -260 -326 247028 028 020 000 03
163330 2442N 08731W 3443 08646 0416 -260 -326 248027 027 019 000 03
163400 2439N 08730W 3443 08646 0415 -260 -327 250026 026 018 000 00
163430 2437N 08729W 3440 08649 0415 -260 -326 252025 026 020 000 03
163500 2435N 08728W 3445 08641 0417 -260 -328 253026 026 020 000 00
163530 2432N 08727W 3443 08646 0417 -260 -329 258024 025 019 000 00
163600 2430N 08726W 3442 08646 0416 -256 -333 254025 025 021 000 03
$$
;

[gatorcane]

The NAM is going crazy with this thing:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

With very high SSTs and a good upper-level environment --- it could really crank up. I don't particularly like to see something drifting NNW into the WCAR this time of year, especially with the higher likelyhood of CONUS troughs sweeping through to the north.

[ozonepete]

No Fujiwara effect?
Is that because we are talking about weak systems?
Distance apart would be pretty minimal.

[/quote]

That's a fair question. I measure about 700 miles myself, and the rule is 900 nm or less.
You are right about weak systems having less interaction, but there still should be some.
But I believe the rule usually applies when there's no land between them. And in this case there are high mountains as well, which should help disrupt the interaction.

There may already be some interaction going on since Fujiwhara should cause TD 11 to go northwest anyway. Just watch 96E. The predicted direction from Fujiwhara would be southeastward, so if 96E starts going in that direction, you'd have to say there was some Fujiwhara going on.

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KNHC 041644
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 10 20091104
163630 2428N 08725W 3442 08648 0417 -255 -334 251025 025 022 000 03
163700 2425N 08724W 3443 08648 0419 -255 -337 246024 024 023 000 03
163730 2423N 08722W 3442 08653 0421 -255 -337 245023 024 021 000 00
163800 2421N 08721W 3442 08654 0422 -255 -339 245023 023 019 000 00
163830 2419N 08720W 3443 08652 0423 -255 -336 246022 022 021 000 03
163900 2416N 08719W 3442 08656 0425 -255 -335 248022 022 020 000 00
163930 2414N 08718W 3442 08655 0425 -255 -336 248022 022 019 000 00
164000 2412N 08717W 3442 08658 0427 -256 -330 249021 021 019 000 03
164030 2409N 08716W 3445 08653 0428 -255 -334 247020 021 019 000 00
164100 2407N 08715W 3441 08661 0427 -255 -348 248021 021 019 000 03
164130 2405N 08714W 3445 08654 0427 -255 -348 249020 021 018 000 03
164200 2402N 08713W 3439 08664 0428 -255 -353 249020 020 018 000 03
164230 2400N 08712W 3446 08651 0429 -255 -352 249020 021 018 000 03
164300 2358N 08711W 3442 08662 0430 -255 -335 249022 022 019 000 03
164330 2355N 08710W 3442 08660 0430 -255 -338 245022 022 018 000 00
164400 2353N 08709W 3443 08657 0430 -255 -343 245021 021 017 000 00
164430 2350N 08708W 3442 08665 0433 -253 -343 247020 021 017 000 00
164500 2348N 08707W 3442 08662 0432 -251 -342 246021 021 016 000 03
164530 2346N 08706W 3442 08662 0432 -250 -344 245020 020 017 000 03
164600 2344N 08705W 3443 08661 0433 -250 -347 246020 020 016 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

The spin was the sign of a real system and not another 2009 dud.


2009 tells us once something gets stacked and going it tends to develop and beat the negative trend. As I've been saying for the last few months there's been a persistent hot spot down by Panama that would be the place to look later in the season.


There's enough remnant SST's up there in the traditional west Caribbean boosting zone to keep an eye on potential now that this disturbance has broken the cap.

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KNHC 041654
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 11 20091104
164630 2341N 08703W 3442 08665 0433 -250 -346 246021 021 013 000 03
164700 2339N 08702W 3443 08660 0432 -250 -346 245021 021 016 000 03
164730 2337N 08701W 3443 08662 0432 -250 -343 244021 021 010 000 00
164800 2334N 08700W 3442 08663 0432 -250 -339 243020 021 014 000 03
164830 2332N 08659W 3445 08658 0432 -250 -336 245020 020 015 000 00
164900 2330N 08658W 3441 08663 0432 -251 -335 246020 021 014 000 03
164930 2327N 08657W 3443 08661 0433 -250 -337 245019 019 017 000 03
165000 2325N 08656W 3442 08664 0433 -253 -335 246019 020 015 000 03
165030 2323N 08655W 3443 08662 0433 -255 -315 244021 021 015 000 03
165100 2320N 08654W 3442 08662 0433 -255 -313 243021 021 018 000 00
165130 2318N 08653W 3442 08662 0432 -253 -313 240022 022 017 000 03
165200 2316N 08652W 3442 08663 0432 -250 -314 241022 022 017 000 03
165230 2313N 08651W 3443 08661 0432 -250 -311 245023 023 018 000 00
165300 2311N 08650W 3442 08662 0432 -254 -309 244023 024 018 000 03
165330 2309N 08649W 3442 08663 0434 -255 -305 243024 024 018 000 03
165400 2307N 08648W 3443 08664 0434 -254 -306 240025 026 017 000 03
165430 2304N 08647W 3442 08663 0435 -252 -312 243026 027 019 000 03
165500 2302N 08646W 3443 08664 0436 -252 -308 242027 027 018 000 00
165530 2300N 08645W 3443 08664 0436 -253 -310 240027 027 019 000 00
165600 2258N 08644W 3441 08669 0437 -250 -315 244028 029 020 000 03
$$
;

[brunota2003]

so far this season, we've had 2 hurricanes...ironically, both became majors

[ozonepete]

Distance apart would be pretty minimal

Right now they are 500 miles apart.

Hi cycloneye. I think I figured out why I got 700 and you got 500. I'm guessing you measured edge to edge, but they should be measured center to center for Fujiwhara.

[RattleMan]

URNT15 KNHC 041704
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20091104
165630 2255N 08643W 3443 08665 0437 -250 -312 246029 029 016 000 00
165700 2253N 08642W 3442 08669 0438 -252 -310 248029 029 017 000 03
165730 2251N 08641W 3442 08669 0438 -253 -308 250029 030 018 000 00
165800 2248N 08640W 3443 08669 0439 -255 -306 251028 028 020 000 03
165830 2246N 08639W 3442 08670 0440 -255 -301 250027 028 019 000 00
165900 2244N 08638W 3443 08666 0440 -255 -295 250027 027 017 000 03
165930 2241N 08637W 3442 08670 0439 -255 -299 253027 027 022 000 03
170000 2239N 08637W 3443 08669 0440 -255 -298 248026 026 026 000 00
170030 2237N 08638W 3442 08670 0440 -255 -300 242027 027 039 009 00
170100 2234N 08638W 3443 08674 0444 -254 -301 232026 026 045 008 00
170130 2232N 08638W 3443 08674 0445 -251 -304 222017 020 046 008 03
170200 2230N 08638W 3444 08671 0444 -255 -298 257019 021 041 009 03
170230 2228N 08637W 3442 08671 0441 -255 -288 260022 023 034 002 03
170300 2225N 08635W 3442 08669 0439 -255 -277 258024 024 022 000 03
170330 2223N 08634W 3441 08671 0439 -255 -268 251024 025 023 000 00
170400 2221N 08633W 3441 08672 0440 -250 -263 236019 024 022 000 03
170430 2219N 08632W 3443 08667 0439 -250 -275 207014 014 021 000 00
170500 2217N 08630W 3443 08667 0440 -249 -277 215018 019 021 000 00
170530 2214N 08629W 3441 08671 0439 -245 -285 231024 025 021 000 03
170600 2212N 08628W 3440 08675 0441 -245 -278 227022 023 020 000 00
$$
;

Will need to go for a little bit, someone take over.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking that it may move inland faster and track west of NHC. That would lead to dissipation over CA, quite probably.

Just looking at the latest high-res visible with sfc obs plotted, I'd put the center a good bit west of 82W now, possibly all the way to 82.8W. That's a lot faster/farther west than NHC track already.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC is GOM bound.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Sanibel]

NAM is on drugs.



CMC weakening category 1 into Pensacola from the looks of it.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL also is GOM bound.

It is not a cat 3 as past runs had,but it ias a cat 1 hurricane in the GOM.It weakens as it moves in the GOM.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


WHXX04 KWBC 041720
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.3 82.0 315./ 7.0
6 11.5 82.5 295./ 5.1
12 11.8 83.3 291./ 8.3
18 12.2 83.6 315./ 5.2
24 12.5 83.9 317./ 4.0
30 12.4 84.3 253./ 4.1
36 12.5 84.6 288./ 2.9
42 12.6 84.7 319./ 2.0
48 12.7 84.7 354./ 1.0
54 13.8 84.7 3./11.0
60 15.3 85.2 340./15.7
66 16.3 85.7 336./10.5
72 16.9 86.4 308./ 9.4
78 17.4 87.0 311./ 7.5
84 17.8 86.7 40./ 5.3
90 18.5 86.3 27./ 7.3
96 19.3 86.3 2./ 8.7
102 20.6 86.3 0./13.1
108 21.5 87.2 313./12.8
114 22.3 87.8 322./ 9.4
120 22.8 88.2 328./ 6.0
126 23.3 88.2 358./ 5.2

[Sanibel]

I agree. The storm movement appears to be towards Nicaragua.

[Ivanhater]

wow

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't see how this is going to miss land. I would be surprised to see it survive the trip into the NW Caribbean.