ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 042154
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 41 20091104
214630 1207N 08245W 9234 00673 9968 +224 +224 048022 025 017 000 03
214700 1208N 08244W 9250 00657 9971 +217 +217 062027 029 027 005 00
214730 1210N 08244W 9257 00654 9990 +206 +999 078035 038 049 007 01
214800 1211N 08244W 9243 00673 9990 +190 +999 080058 067 050 012 01
214830 1213N 08244W 9252 00672 9990 +184 +999 076067 075 052 017 01
214900 1214N 08244W 9253 00682 9990 +182 +999 077061 062 056 030 01
214930 1215N 08244W 9250 00691 9990 +175 +999 080058 060 053 026 01
215000 1217N 08244W 9239 00711 9990 +171 +999 083056 057 053 024 01
215030 1218N 08244W 9244 00712 9990 +181 +999 086055 056 047 013 01
215100 1220N 08244W 9251 00712 0040 +188 +188 084055 055 041 006 01
215130 1221N 08244W 9246 00721 0044 +196 +196 083056 057 040 002 00
215200 1223N 08244W 9244 00727 0049 +196 +196 084053 056 038 002 00
215230 1224N 08244W 9256 00718 0052 +189 +189 080057 059 037 004 01
215300 1225N 08244W 9243 00732 0055 +192 +192 081052 056 035 005 00
215330 1227N 08244W 9250 00727 0057 +195 +195 085051 052 036 005 00
215400 1228N 08244W 9252 00725 0059 +189 +189 084052 052 038 006 01
215430 1230N 08244W 9241 00740 9990 +186 +999 083051 052 036 007 01
215500 1231N 08244W 9248 00734 0063 +194 +194 086050 052 034 006 00
215530 1233N 08244W 9248 00739 0064 +202 +202 086049 051 032 004 00
215600 1234N 08244W 9249 00739 0066 +196 +196 084046 047 030 003 00
$$
;

75 kt FL (supports 57 kt at the surface), 56 kt SFMR.

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: If this NNW trend continues,it may spend less time on land with all the implications that it will have by doing that..

18z GFS is keeping this offshore, brushing the coast now..quite different from the last runs

[HURAKAN]

[drezee]

so speed and heading is:

2145 - 1951 = 1.9hours

8.913/1.9 = 4.7mph at 320°

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS, keeps Ida offshore

[ROCK]

This has about as much chance of getting west of FL's Lat in the gulf in mid Nov as Notre Dame has at winning the National Championship.

Notre Dame has won many PAST national championships.... that said, if the models are showing SGOM right now then that is all we have to go on attm.

[ROCK]

18z GFS, keeps Ida offshore

also closing off something off of Texas?....96hr heading toward the Yucatan.

[Ivanhater]

Yep Rock, that system may be the culprit that tugs Ida on a more northerly course

96 hrs

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 042201
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 04/21:44:50Z
B. 12 deg 02 min N
082 deg 43 min W
C. 925 mb 657 m
D. 34 kt
E. 170 deg 14 nm
F. 258 deg 40 kt
G. 169 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 21 C / 755 m
J. 24 C / 769 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:44:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 21:48:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a weak eye is starting to form on the late visible imagery.

Hurricane looking more and more likely for Nicaragua. Just wish we had an overnight recon

[Aric Dunn]

the 75% reduction maybe too much since they were at 925 MB winds could be closer to 60kt at surface..

[ROCK]

might be alittle wet around these parts in a few days if this run pans out.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 042204
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 42 20091104
215630 1236N 08244W 9241 00745 0067 +200 +200 090047 048 032 001 00
215700 1237N 08244W 9252 00738 0068 +202 +200 089045 046 034 000 00
215730 1239N 08244W 9248 00746 0071 +202 +194 091046 047 033 000 00
215800 1240N 08244W 9244 00750 0072 +205 +193 092046 047 031 001 00
215830 1242N 08244W 9249 00745 0073 +204 +193 090045 045 032 002 00
215900 1243N 08244W 9246 00749 0075 +200 +199 089044 045 030 001 00
215930 1245N 08244W 9247 00747 0076 +200 +200 089043 044 028 001 00
220000 1246N 08244W 9249 00750 0080 +200 +200 091043 043 028 003 00
220030 1248N 08244W 9245 00755 0080 +202 +199 092043 043 030 000 03
220100 1249N 08243W 9246 00755 0081 +203 +198 092042 043 029 000 00
220130 1251N 08243W 9246 00755 0082 +205 +197 091042 042 028 000 00
220200 1251N 08243W 9246 00755 0083 +204 +197 090041 041 027 000 00
220230 1254N 08243W 9246 00756 0083 +206 +194 091039 039 029 000 00
220300 1256N 08243W 9249 00753 0084 +204 +197 091039 039 026 000 00
220330 1257N 08243W 9245 00760 0086 +200 +200 089040 041 029 001 00
220400 1259N 08243W 9244 00764 0089 +200 +200 087040 041 027 000 00
220430 1300N 08243W 9248 00760 0089 +199 +199 086042 043 027 000 00
220500 1302N 08243W 9244 00764 0089 +200 +200 089039 043 025 000 00
220530 1303N 08243W 9249 00757 0089 +201 +201 091039 041 023 001 00
220600 1305N 08243W 9250 00758 0090 +201 +198 092039 040 024 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Normal zigzag

[CrazyC83]

There are no buoys south of 16.8N 81.5W, so ship reports are all we have overnight.

[ROCK]

Ivan, your right.... she is going to follow that other low over TX/LA right around the high. Right to your front door from the looks of it at 120hr....

[Ivanhater]

144 hours

[drezee]

on current headding and speed it would pass N of Honduras at

N Latitude 16 20 0.00, W Longitude 86 21 0.00 in 3.4 days...