ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 042216
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 43 20091104
220630 1306N 08243W 9248 00763 0092 +201 +196 092039 040 020 000 00
220700 1308N 08243W 9244 00769 0094 +201 +195 089038 039 021 000 00
220730 1309N 08243W 9241 00769 0094 +200 +200 088036 038 027 000 03
220800 1311N 08243W 9248 00764 0094 +200 +200 090037 039 023 002 00
220830 1312N 08243W 9250 00762 0092 +200 +200 091039 039 024 002 00
220900 1314N 08243W 8962 01018 0077 +187 +184 092039 040 999 999 03
220930 1316N 08243W 8576 01406 0085 +165 +162 096040 041 021 000 03
221000 1318N 08244W 8278 01707 0085 +148 +148 096037 038 999 999 03
221030 1319N 08244W 7923 02082 0085 +129 +129 099036 037 021 001 03
221100 1321N 08244W 7600 02445 0093 +114 +114 101032 033 021 000 03
221130 1323N 08244W 7303 02778 0084 +107 +077 109029 031 022 000 00
221200 1325N 08244W 7071 03047 0080 +095 +050 113032 033 022 000 00
221230 1327N 08245W 6818 03348 0083 +072 +044 108033 034 021 000 03
221300 1329N 08245W 6555 03672 0080 +053 +050 100034 035 021 000 03
221330 1332N 08245W 6322 03969 0080 +035 +034 100033 034 022 000 00
221400 1334N 08245W 6111 04244 0075 +021 +020 096031 034 021 000 00
221430 1336N 08246W 5894 04535 0067 +007 +007 088034 034 018 000 00
221500 1338N 08246W 5705 04797 0044 +003 -001 079032 032 021 000 03
221530 1340N 08246W 5548 05019 0042 -010 -014 080033 034 024 001 00
221600 1342N 08246W 5418 05209 0234 -019 -019 079033 034 029 005 00
$$
;

Mission over.

[Ivanhater]

Still intensifying

[ROCK]

Tampa? that would a bad scenario if it was a strong storm. Doesnt take much of a surge there...

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS appears that Ida is West Coast of Florida-bound as it makes a right turn in the EGOM out ahead of a trough digging into the GOM. May cross the peninsula and head out into the Atlantic on this run.

Note all landfalling U.S Hurricanes in November have hit Florida (4 CAT 1s).

[Ivanhater]

156 hrs

seems to stall then move east some..trough might pick it up

[cycloneye]

Next mission will be tommorow afternoon.It may not happen if it makes landfall.

A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 05/1230Z
D. 12.7N 83.2W
E. 05/1630Z TO 05/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[srainhoutx]

[Ivanhater]

18z gfs stalls Ida in the gulf then pushes her back south similar to the Euro

[cycloneye]

18z gfs stalls Ida in the gulf then pushes her back south similar to the Euro

So the EURO is not alone,and I was mocking that model earlier.

[ROCK]

it misses the trof? oh brother....

I was mocking the EURO also....

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 042230
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
530 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
...IDA A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 530 PM EST...2230 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING
IDA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

we may need a warning in the coming hours if current trends continue

[wxman57]

:uarrow: If this NNW trend continues,it may spend less time on land with all the implications that it will have by doing that..

You can't assume a motion based on 2 recon fixes that may not be in the "center" of the center. Otherwise, that 3rd fix puts it moving WNW. It's not moving NNW or WNW.

Here's a graphic that I made last year during Gustav to demonstrate that fixes even slightly off-center can indicate an inaccurate heading if connected:

[jaxfladude]

Prayers for all those in Ida's path; current and future if the models are correct.

[gatorcane]

well now that is is rapidly deepening, let's see if it goes more poleward as some of the models had suggested (ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL)

Might feel the weakness to the NW more as it deepens.

It appears the EPAC area lost this battle.

[Ivanhater]

[CrazyC83]

Do we have Hurricane Ida?

Also, this has probably been a tropical storm as far back as at least 1200Z today.

[gatorcane]

I don't believe that it will stop and start moving back SE in the long-run, a very ridiculous and unlikely scenario in my opinion.

More likely scenario would be a slow North or NNW movement in the NW Carib then an accelerated bend to the NE or ENE out ahead of a trough. I think the long-range models are struggling some with the synoptics over the CONUS in the long-range and will eventually converge on that scenario. Keep in mind only yesterday the ECMWF thought Ida would get buried in Belize and bend west.

In November, the ridge and trough setups can change more quickly than in August for example as mid-lattitude systems traverse the CONUS.

[Derek Ortt]

may have been a depression as early as Monday evening. I fully expect the BT to be extended back