ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[ozonepete]

ozonepete, thanks I did not see the knots and pressures...LOL.

YAY.

[boca]

If Ida survives the trek across CA what are the chances it makes it to the NGOM.Ex Mobile.

[vbhoutex]

If Ida survives the trek across CA what are the chances it makes it to the NGOM.Ex Mobile.

Way too early to tell. With troughs coming in and the possible BOC mess moving N to the Gulf Coast Sunday it is anyones guess what the steering will be by the time Ida gets into the GOM, if she does.

[Ivanhater]

84 hrs

[cycloneye]

For the members who may be asking where the center is,here is the latest dvorak image.

[ozonepete]

Ida's structure is getting elongated south to north because of its "leaning up" against the mountains. Obviously a quicker storm would have enough momentum to keep going westward into the mountains and get torn apart. But Ida is a very slow-moving storm and so it's brushing up against the mountains and getting "coerced" more northward.

[Ivanhater]

102 hrs

[ozonepete]

But it is funny this season, LOL. Whether the WestPac or the Atlantic, none of these storms want to show an eye. I'm still waiting for this one...

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With the easternmost trend of the projected path, Ida as we've stated earlier, will be traversing the flatest part of Central America, if the track verifies inflow from the Pacific will become restricted but inflow from Caribbean may still feed the centre of the storm allowing Ida to survive maybe not as a TS but a depression, what I'm trying to say is that if Ida doesn't go over the mountains then the LLC will not be destroyed as fast as other hurricanes like Beta and Felix so it will re-emerge over water and will intensify again like the NHC has forecasted.

[Ivanhater]

126 hrs

[wxman57]

If Ida survives the trek across CA what are the chances it makes it to the NGOM.Ex Mobile.

Take a look at the projected upper-level winds across the northern Gulf early next week - SW-WSW 60-80 kts associated with the passing trof/front. Very strong wind shear up there next week. If Ida survives and enters the southern Gulf, it'll most likely be turned NE toward the FL Peninsula.



And here's the Euro. Just look at the high shear across the central and northern Gulf (lower left panel) projected for next week. Look for a NE turn not long after it enters the Gulf:

[Ivanhater]

If Ida survives the trek across CA what are the chances it makes it to the NGOM.Ex Mobile.

Take a look at the projected upper-level winds across the northern Gulf early next week - SW-WSW 60-80 kts associated with the passing trof/front. Very strong wind shear up there next week. If Ida survives and enters the southern Gulf, it'll most likely be turned NE toward the FL Peninsula.

I'm curious as to why none of the models show that

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WOW! This came up really fast! Looks intense.

[gatorcane]

Of course if Ida is a deep system it will experience those 200MB winds which would turn in more NE, away from the Northern Gulf.

Anything around the Northern GOM looks like it will be toast anyway with those kind of upper-level winds but hey it is November isn't it?

The NE turn in the Southern GOM or Western Caribbean is a very climatologically favored track as well.

[wxman57]

Of course if Ida is a deep system it will experience those 200MB winds which would turn in more NE, away from the Northern Gulf.

Anything around the Northern GOM looks like it will be toast with those kind of upper-level winds but hey it is November isn't it?

Its intensity won't matter very much. Even the 500mb flow is very strong out of the west next week. Anything moving northward toward 23-25N will be turned NE and/or be weakened significantly by increasing shear.

[Kludge]

If you're reading this thread with any thoughts about a November tropical storm strike on the US coast, then you have earned an "F" on your climatology course for this simester. El Nino is playing with your mind. You're bored ...so this looks fascinating.


And yes, I'm here posting... so I'm guilty on all counts. But it was fun to get a spike at the end of the season...

See you in '10.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[lrak]

If you're reading this thread with any thoughts about a November tropical storm strike on the US coast, then you have earned an "F" on your climatology course for this simester. El Nino is playing with your mind. You're bored ...so this looks fascinating.


And yes, I'm here posting... so I'm guilty on all counts. But it was fun to get a spike at the end of the season...

See you in '10.

Booo....hisss

[ozonepete]

If Ida survives the trek across CA what are the chances it makes it to the NGOM.Ex Mobile.

Take a look at the projected upper-level winds across the northern Gulf early next week - SW-WSW 60-80 kts associated with the passing trof/front. Very strong wind shear up there next week. If Ida survives and enters the southern Gulf, it'll most likely be turned NE toward the FL Peninsula.

And here's the Euro. Just look at the high shear across the central and northern Gulf (lower left panel) projected for next week. Look for a NE turn not long after it enters the Gulf: [quote]

Those are the best tools we have, wxman57. I totally agree that, given the limitations of a forecast so far out, IDA will have to get pushed north-northeastward towards the Florida panhandle if it makes it into the Gulf early next week. It's the most logical path by far.

[boca]

If Ida survives the trek across CA what are the chances it makes it to the NGOM.Ex Mobile.

Take a look at the projected upper-level winds across the northern Gulf early next week - SW-WSW 60-80 kts associated with the passing trof/front. Very strong wind shear up there next week. If Ida survives and enters the southern Gulf, it'll most likely be turned NE toward the FL Peninsula.

I'm curious as to why none of the models show that

I was thinking the same thing especially its Nov and we have the westerlies that dip down into the tropics.