ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Ivanhater]

Canadian..Louisiana

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050531
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING
INLAND...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...85 KM...NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND IDA COULD
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IDA MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.

...SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 83.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 83.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL again has a cat 5.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Good night. I'll be back in a few hours!

[Ptarmigan]

I think Ida will be a hurricane, since it is a small tropical storm. More chance to intensify rapidly.

[MGC]

Ida looks to be approaching hurricane intensity. Too bad we don't have recon. I think Ida will make it across land and emerge as a TD off the Honduran coast. Should slowly regenerate.....you folks in Florida need to watch Ida.....MGC

[MWatkins]

Hmmm.

The 03Z advisory position was 12.5N 83.1W

The 06Z position is 12.5N 83.2W

That's just 6 nautical miles in 3 hours...or 2 knots of movement.

Looking at the GFDL and GFS solutions, it is possible that Ida has reached the edge of the ridge and there isn't much left to push it westward. Given the propensity of slowly moving tropics systems to want to stay over water as much as possible, and the latest virtual stall, I wouldn't be suprised if Ida were to start crawling northward and try to stay off the coast as much as possible.

The GFDL has been overdoing intensity all year, so it's hard to buy a 915mb system lurking off the western tip of Cuba in 126 hours. However a Cat2 or 3 system isn't out of the question, even if it skirts the coast for 12 hours or so.

Going to be an interesting few days ahead up here in the states, and unfortunately lots of flooding for CA.

MW

[Ptarmigan]

00z GFDL again has a cat 5.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

A Category 5 hurricane in November would be a rarity. History in the making.

[Jagno]

I just pray this projected GFDL Cat 5 doesn't bond with the Canadian Model and come anywhere near here as it's showing it at my front door in 4 1/2 days from now.

Irony is the fact that I spent all morning gathering the last of my clothing and household possessions left in our apartment from the previous 4 hurricanes dating back to Rita in 2005. Then I come here to brag on beautiful weather and find this.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

Hard totell ,but could be stalling / drifting NNw

[Cyclenall]

A Category 5 hurricane in November would be a rarity. History in the making.

It would be extremely ironic if it did become a category 5 hurricane with it being November and there being a moderate El Nino event...added to the fact it happens in 2009...

[Sanibel]

The negativity is definitely ending at season's end.


Pretty good unexpected burst. Haven't seen this in a while.

[SETXWXLADY]

I just pray this projected GFDL Cat 5 doesn't bond with the Canadian Model and come anywhere near here as it's showing it at my front door in 4 1/2 days from now.

Irony is the fact that I spent all morning gathering the last of my clothing and household possessions left in our apartment from the previous 4 hurricanes dating back to Rita in 2005. Then I come here to brag on beautiful weather and find this.

I thought we'd get a break this year. But btween the CMC and the Euro I'm not too sure about that. And it's NOVEMBER!

[JonathanBelles]

I'm still not buying the shift west later in the models. Climatology tells us its not likely, and as much as this season has depended on climo, I have to lean east.

[JonathanBelles]

The clouds of Ida seems to be expanding, and more prevalently expanding to north in the last hour or two.

[wyq614]

Hmmm.

The 03Z advisory position was 12.5N 83.1W

The 06Z position is 12.5N 83.2W

That's just 6 nautical miles in 3 hours...or 2 knots of movement.

Looking at the GFDL and GFS solutions, it is possible that Ida has reached the edge of the ridge and there isn't much left to push it westward. Given the propensity of slowly moving tropics systems to want to stay over water as much as possible, and the latest virtual stall, I wouldn't be suprised if Ida were to start crawling northward and try to stay off the coast as much as possible.

The GFDL has been overdoing intensity all year, so it's hard to buy a 915mb system lurking off the western tip of Cuba in 126 hours. However a Cat2 or 3 system isn't out of the question, even if it skirts the coast for 12 hours or so.

Going to be an interesting few days ahead up here in the states, and unfortunately lots of flooding for CA.

MW

09z 12.8N 83.4W

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like landfall is very close to happening or has happened.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 050836
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. EARLIER THERE WAS A LARGE EXPANSION OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHILE IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO THE COLDEST TOPS HAVE TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
HOWEVER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THAT IDA WAS ALREADY THAT
STRONG YESTERDAY WHEN IT HAD A MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA REFLECTS THE SMALL CHANCE THAT IDA COULD REACH
HURRICANE STATUS AS IS MAKES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES IDA BACK OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. HOWEVER
...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE...SINCE
IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WATER AGAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/06. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AS IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BEYOND THAT TIME...
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
FORWARD SPEED AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
SHOWN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH IS A FAR EASTERN
OUTLIER.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 12.8N 83.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 13.3N 83.9W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/0600Z 13.9N 84.3W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1800Z 14.7N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0600Z 15.7N 84.8W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 08/0600Z 18.0N 85.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 86.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[ronjon]

06Z GFDL still showing a mostly northward to N-NW movement with a major hurricane in the SE GOM in 5 days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009110506-ida11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation