ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

GFDL continues to be bonkers.The 06z run has a cat 4 in the SE GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

There is a weakness that IDA may follow.See the graphic.

[Crostorm]

Latest

[Evil Jeremy]

...IDA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...

[cycloneye]

Ida becomes a hurricane

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IDA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A
HURRICANE.

AT 700 AM...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA BORDER NORTHWARD TO BLUEFIELDS AND FROM NORTH OF PUERTO
CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT
85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...IDA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IDA MOVES INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 83.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 83.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

Umm,at 4 AM it was at 12.8N-83.4W and at 7 AM is at the same place.

[Crostorm]

[wyq614]

...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 83.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

Umm,at 4 AM it was at 12.8N-83.4W and at 7 AM is at the same place.

I was about to say the same thing...

[gatorcane]

Definitely looks like that N turn is happening when I look at the latest SAT images. Clearly a weakness exists to the North and now that it is a deep system is really starting to feel it.

Take a look at the 200MB flow by day 5. Ida would have to turn to the NE towards the FL peninsula when it enters the SE GOM as it rounds the periphery of the high centered south in the Western Caribbean and gets caught up in the westerlies behind the cold front.

[boca]

When was the last time the NGOM was hit by a storm in November besides Kate in 1985.The track goes against climatology.

[boca]

When was the last time the NGOM was hit by a storm in November besides Kate in 1985.The track goes against climatology.

[HURAKAN]

In the coast

[gatorcane]

When was the last time the NGOM was hit by a storm in November besides Kate in 1985.The track goes against climatology.

Boca, see my graphic above. A system headed for the NW Car this time of year needs close watching by South FL, especially one that drifts to the North and check out the 200MB flow for day 5. Ida would need to make a turn NE or ENE with that kind of flow.

[boca]

I'm surprised that the models and the NHC at day five looking at that 200mb flow map you posted above.

[cycloneye]

Here is the enchilada of models.

[gatorcane]

I'm surprised that the models and the NHC at day five looking at that 200mb flow map you posted above.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If you look at the latest set of models (models thread), you can see some are already showing the distinct NE/ENE turn at the end. Expect more to follow with perhaps a sharper turn over the next few days. Could very well be a Florida system this time with even some East movement at the end before it is all through.

[jdray]

Here is the enchilada of models.

There's the curve in the models one would start expecting to see this time of year.
While it could go west or straight north once in the gulf, climatology favors a curve towards the NE.

It will be interesting to see, definitely one for everyone from FLA to TX to keep an eye on.

[cycloneye]

Plane was supposed to haved departed by now but there is no information about any obs that indicate it has done so.I think it has been canceled due to Idas proximity to the coast or landfall this morning.

[Crostorm]

[wzrgirl1]

I'm surprised that the models and the NHC at day five looking at that 200mb flow map you posted above.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If you look at the latest set of models (models thread), you can see some are already showing the distinct NE/ENE turn at the end. Expect more to follow with perhaps a sharper turn over the next few days. Could very well be a Florida system this time with even some East movement at the end before it is all through.

Can you please post a link to those latest models. Very intrigued over here.