ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[brunota2003]

Ida definitely blew up quickly, but it did not go from a TD to a Cat 1 in 24 hours, I would bet everything I make this year in Iraq on that. Sure, the official advisory shows that (because of sat estimates) but recon showed last night it was a 50 knot storm, when the sat's were screaming depression. Honestly, how reliable are the sat estimates? That isn't the first time they've been wayyy too low.

[Stormcenter]

I not worried about IDA. If it were Sept. or even early Oct. then yes I would be but it's not so I'm not.

[Blown Away]

I will be shocked if Ida enters the GOM and makes a landfall anywhere W of Pensacola, got to go with Climatology. IMO, if Ida survives I think we will see a track that bends towards Florida and I think it's just as likely Ida will go south of Florida. I just don't like the GFDL, I know it's highly unlikely but it would be nice to see that model back off the Cat 4/5 runs. What concerns me is there has not been much upwelling in the Caribbean this hurricane season and the waters are still warm. I'm confident old reliable "shear" will keep Ida in check if she were to enter the GOM.

[jhpigott]

anyone have a link to the 12Z GDFL (excuse my ignorance if it doesn't run at 12Z)

just curious to see if 1) it still has the system moving quickly off the coast of Nicuragua and 2) still show a Cat 4/5 in the Yuchatan channel

[cycloneye]

anyone have a link to the 12Z GDFL (excuse my ignorance if it doesn't run at 12Z)

just curious to see if 1) it still has the system moving quickly off the coast of Nicuragua and 2) still show a Cat 4/5 in the Yuchatan channel

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

12z GFDL will come out around 12:30 PM EST.

[Blown Away]

anyone have a link to the 12Z GDFL (excuse my ignorance if it doesn't run at 12Z)

just curious to see if 1) it still has the system moving quickly off the coast of Nicuragua and 2) still show a Cat 4/5 in the Yuchatan channel

http://tc.met.psu.edu

Others probably have better links, but I use this one.

[HURAKAN]

Inland

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[artist]

my concerns if she does hold enough together is the models seem to bring her over the loop current. Of course the shear will be a huge factor but we also know what the loop current can do.

[jhpigott]

thanks

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL

Ends the run at the central GOM.Intensity graphic will come shortly.

WHXX04 KWBC 051722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IDA 11L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 83.6 310./ 5.0
6 13.3 83.5 16./ 4.3
12 13.6 83.6 335./ 3.1
18 14.3 83.4 21./ 7.0
24 14.9 83.4 357./ 6.5
30 15.6 83.3 7./ 6.7
36 16.4 83.1 13./ 8.3
42 16.8 82.9 29./ 4.9
48 17.6 82.4 32./ 8.6
54 18.3 82.6 346./ 7.7
60 18.9 82.7 346./ 5.5
66 19.2 82.9 328./ 3.9
72 19.7 83.0 357./ 5.3
78 20.3 83.4 323./ 7.3
84 21.0 83.8 330./ 7.3
90 21.6 84.6 312./ 9.7
96 22.4 85.0 330./ 8.8
102 23.2 85.7 320./10.1
108 23.8 86.1 321./ 6.9
114 24.2 86.2 353./ 4.0
120 24.7 85.9 30./ 5.6
126 25.1 85.5 43./ 5.9

[cycloneye]

TAFB: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

There is the BOC low that may merge with Ida.

[Derek Ortt]

12Z CMC useless it appears. Has the EPAC system too intense and has the two cyclones doing a Fujiwara around each other, followed by a merger

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

any shear maps to post that predict next week??

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF

HWRF tracks towards GOM where it ends just south of Pensacola (Ivanhater!!) as a high end tropical storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[AdamFirst]

12Z HWRF has a moderate tropical storm streaking north into the Gulf with a sudden turn east near the end of the run

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL is in the Southeastern GOM has a major hurricane heading toward the FL peninsula (SW Florida).

Track is pretty reasonable.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL has a cat 4 southwest of Tampa.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

12z GFDL has a cat 4 south of Pensacola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The better reference point would by Ft. Myers as the 12Z GFDL bends it NE/ENE at the end.

I see you updated it above (Tampa)...reasonable if you ask me.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL has a cat 4 south of Pensacola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The better reference point would by Ft. Myers as the 12Z GFDL bends it NE/ENE at the end.

I fix it to Tampa.