ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[AdamFirst]

12Z GFDL still on steroids...

takes Ida right along the Nicaraguan/Honduras coast (due northerly track) and jacks it up to a low-end Category 4 bending towards the West Coast of Florida

[gatorcane]

With the HWRF/GFDL/GFS/UKMET solutions now bending NE/ENE by day 5 (GFDL has a CAT 4 in the EGOM which is questionable), expect the cone to bend more to the right for the next advisory.........rather than it going straight NNW as it is now (of course it is not prudent to extrapolate that cone beyond day 5 as a straight shot up into the NGOM)

That should certainly peak some interest to those on the West Coast of FL and this board should see quite alot of activity within the next few days, assuming Ida does not weaken over CA.

[Bocadude85]

12z GFDL has a cat 4 south of Pensacola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The better reference point would by Ft. Myers as the 12Z GFDL bends it NE/ENE at the end.

I see you updated it above (Tampa)...reasonable if you ask me.

25.1 N is still south of Naples

[ozonepete]

any shear maps to post that predict next week??

I can't post images from this location, but here's a link to the Penn State Tropical Site for the Atlantic basin. GFS is on the left, NOGAPS in the middle, and CMC model on the right. It goes out to Wednesday. Note that GFS and CMC have little or no shear in the southeastern GOM by Tuesday morning.

Here you go: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSHEARATL_0z/comploop.html

Sorry I forgot: Select SHEAR/12HR SHEAR CHANGE

[hurricanefloyd5]

IDA will more then likly become a Major hurricane once it gets into the GOMEX!!!! jUST MY OP. PRAY TO god THIS DOSEN'T HAPPEN!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

IDA will more then likly become a Major hurricane once it gets into the GOMEX!!!! jUST MY OP. PRAY TO god THIS DOSEN'T HAPPEN!!!!!!!!

Take it easy.No need to be in panic.

[Evil Jeremy]

IDA will more then likly become a Major hurricane once it gets into the GOMEX!!!! jUST MY OP. PRAY TO god THIS DOSEN'T HAPPEN!!!!!!!!

Have you taken a look at the shear charts for next week? Just because the waters are warm does not mean that this is going to bomb out.

[gatorcane]

Well the GFDL is pretty amazing...it goes through NW Carib and basically around the WEstern tip of Cuba, avoiding as much land as possible as it bends ENE to NE towards SW FL in the SE GOM. Then again, the GFDL didn't show Ida moving ashore Nicaragua also and look what happened. I would still question the GFDL at this point.

[AdamFirst]

That shear map is a telling forecast. If there is low shear in the gulf next week, then this thing may be a major player.

[gatorcane]

Latest model guidance. Note the 12Z UKMET is not in yet but there is a clear ENE/NE bend at the end the models are trending towards:

[wxman57]

You might also check the upper-level wind forecast for next Tuesday when Ida's entering the SE Gulf. The 12Z GFS is similar to the Euro in indicating strong SW-WSW flow across the central and northern Gulf. This is what would cause Ida to turn to the NE toward Florida. It could also cause some weakening in the Gulf, as shear increases the farther north Ida gets.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 051749
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NICARAGUA...

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS REPLACED
THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH.

INTERESTS IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
IDA MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA TODAY AND TONIGHT. IDA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.1N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[yzerfan]

The northern GOMEX is also significantly more dry than it was a couple weeks back. Dew points in the low 50s pretty consistently and fire weather flags up.

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.1N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

[fci]

You might also check the upper-level wind forecast for next Tuesday when Ida's entering the SE Gulf. The 12Z GFS is similar to the Euro in indicating strong SW-WSW flow across the central and northern Gulf. This is what would cause Ida to turn to the NE toward Florida. It could also cause some weakening in the Gulf, as shear increases the farther north Ida gets.

Didn't Wilma face a lot of shear which only enhances it as she become Extra-Tropical.
Spread out the eye to a very large size too?


(Not that I am saying Ida will be another Wilma, but the comparison serves due to proximity and time of year)

[Derek Ortt]

it depends where the shear is

strong shear north of the cyclone could make the GFDL model a severe underforecast. Strong shear over the cyclone means quick dissipation

[deltadog03]

The shear will certainly get her as she enters the GOM, BUT when she gets back into the carrib. *from land now* it will certainly have the opportunity to explode. Look at the map that wxman posted and notice how there is a nearly perfect upper air pattern over the W and NW carrib. before entering the GOM Thats why the GFDL is exploding this storm. To be honest I could easily see that happening.

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, in school, word is already spreading about Ida. A chunk of kids want it to come this way so it can cancel Exams that start in a couple of weeks.

[MWatkins]

You might also check the upper-level wind forecast for next Tuesday when Ida's entering the SE Gulf. The 12Z GFS is similar to the Euro in indicating strong SW-WSW flow across the central and northern Gulf. This is what would cause Ida to turn to the NE toward Florida. It could also cause some weakening in the Gulf, as shear increases the farther north Ida gets.

Unless, of course, Ida is moving in the same direction as the upper flow. We heard a lot about how Wilma was going to weaken when it came off of Mexico due to all the shear.

Yet, it got into a spot where the upper flow was venting the cyclone. These things are not as black and white as they may seem when looking at the model fields.

MW

[ozonepete]

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.1N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

Aha! I thought it looked like it had stopped moving. That's terrible for floods and mudslides. In addition it may go much more north now when it resumes motion.