ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[ozonepete]

You might also check the upper-level wind forecast for next Tuesday when Ida's entering the SE Gulf. The 12Z GFS is similar to the Euro in indicating strong SW-WSW flow across the central and northern Gulf. This is what would cause Ida to turn to the NE toward Florida. It could also cause some weakening in the Gulf, as shear increases the farther north Ida gets.

Didn't Wilma face a lot of shear which only enhances it as she become Extra-Tropical.
Spread out the eye to a very large size too?


(Not that I am saying Ida will be another Wilma, but the comparison serves due to proximity and time of year)

Wilma had become annular in the SW Gulf; very large eye embedded in a virtually perfect circle, the truck tire shape. That's a very stable configuration. That stability, along with tailwind shear enabled it to hold a lot of its strength. Of course who knows what will happen with this one, way too early.

[gatorcane]

The shear will certainly get her as she enters the GOM, BUT when she gets back into the carrib. *from land now* it will certainly have the opportunity to explode. Look at the map that wxman posted and notice how there is a nearly perfect upper air pattern over the W and NW carrib. before entering the GOM Thats why the GFDL is exploding this storm. To be honest I could easily see that happening.

If it weren't for land interaction now, it could be a CAT 2 or 3 easily.

[wxman57]

Often there's a very fine line between shear and enhanced outflow. We'll just have to wait and see what the upper-level winds REALLY are like come next Mon/Tue.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

It has Florida Panhandle written on this run.

HURRICANE IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 83.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.11.2009 13.2N 83.3W MODERATE
00UTC 06.11.2009 14.1N 83.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2009 15.1N 83.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.11.2009 16.4N 84.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2009 17.4N 84.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2009 18.2N 84.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2009 19.6N 86.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2009 21.4N 86.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2009 24.6N 88.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2009 27.4N 88.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.11.2009 29.0N 87.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2009 31.9N 83.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.11.2009 36.5N 80.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[KWT]

The core is right along the coast, just inland, thankfully its not a big system otherwise I'd imagine it would hold together fairly well.

As for enhancing, the best I think I've ever seen in recent years has to be Charley in 2004. As others have said there is a very fine line indeed!

Also, once it does emerge from land, it'll probably have 36-48hrs of near perfect conditions before uppers start to increase quite a lot, even if it emerges as a TD which is quite probable, thats plenty of time in the toasty waters to ramp it up back to hurricane strength.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Bam models has it moving barely at 320 degrees.

WHXX01 KWBC 051820
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC THU NOV 5 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AL112009) 20091105 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091105 1800 091106 0600 091106 1800 091107 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 83.7W 13.8N 84.7W 14.6N 85.7W 15.7N 86.6W
BAMD 13.1N 83.7W 14.6N 84.4W 16.4N 84.9W 18.5N 85.3W
BAMM 13.1N 83.7W 14.1N 84.5W 15.4N 85.3W 16.8N 86.0W
LBAR 13.1N 83.7W 14.0N 84.1W 15.5N 84.5W 16.7N 84.8W
SHIP 55KTS 57KTS 57KTS 58KTS
DSHP 55KTS 39KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091107 1800 091108 1800 091109 1800 091110 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 87.4W 18.1N 89.0W 19.3N 89.8W 18.6N 89.4W
BAMD 20.7N 85.7W 24.9N 88.1W 31.9N 89.4W 40.8N 77.4W
BAMM 18.2N 86.7W 20.8N 88.8W 23.8N 90.4W 24.3N 89.7W
LBAR 17.7N 84.9W 19.1N 85.5W 20.2N 86.1W 20.0N 84.8W
SHIP 58KTS 61KTS 61KTS 54KTS
DSHP 32KTS 34KTS 35KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 83.3W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 82.3W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 115NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 40NM

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

not feeling good about this. i just got my new trike and don't want to park it anywhere unattended next week, but i would have to put it in a garage if we are to expect any flooding at all. we're only 3.5 ft. above sea level, so it doesn't take a direct hit, just a near miss for us to have problems at my house.

[Ad Novoxium]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091105/ap_on_re_us/tropical_weather
News source that gives an early view as to Ida's impact. From the way it sounds, Ida may do something along the lines of Alma last year. This one is sounding fairly bad, and I personally hope that this dies over land, because the conditions awaiting it could be bad for the Yucatan and/or Cuba depending on its size.

[cycloneye]

The core is right along the coast, just inland, thankfully its not a big system otherwise I'd imagine it would hold together fairly well.

As for enhancing, the best I think I've ever seen in recent years has to be Charley in 2004. As others have said there is a very fine line indeed!

Also, once it does emerge from land, it'll probably have 36-48hrs of near perfect conditions before uppers start to increase quite a lot, even if it emerges as a TD which is quite probable, thats plenty of time in the toasty waters to ramp it up back to hurricane strength.

You bet about those Western Caribbean waters that haved been untouched this season.



http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

sad for all those people getting smacked by this right now.

[KWT]

I think the GFDL track is probably not too far off the mark, I think the models will slowly adjust eastward with this one, though of course the longer it stays crawling at 3-5kts the more of a chance it has of missing the connection so to speak, of course the slower it goes the greater the chance of it being able to become quite strong in the WCAR.

[KWT]

The big worry as has been mentioned for now is those landslides, don't need another Mitch style event occuring.

[Sanibel]

If this happened 150 miles further east I think, from what we are seeing, this would be bombing up to category 3 and be a worry for the Keys. Late season strong hurricanes are happening with more frequency. Thank goodness for Nicaragua.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

a slowdown isn't good for west coast florida, as it will eventually be turned to the NE with the approaching front. -unless it really stalls for like 2 extra days, then there is a chance it will miss the connection entirely.

[cycloneye]

Thank goodness for Nicaragua.

They are getting hammered with torrential rain that will cause floodings and mudslides,hopefully a tragedy of immense proportions can be avoided.

[gatorcane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

a slowdown isn't good for west coast florida, as it will eventually be turned to the NE with the approaching front. -unless it really stalls for like 2 extra days, then there is a chance it will miss the connection entirely.

Check out the monster cold front next weekend (11 days from). If it slows down and only creeps north and misses the first front, it would likely connect with this front and shoot of to the NE.

[Sanibel]

GFDL has nicked slightly west and over Nicaragua in a coastal track. This has changed from the jump back over water east of Nicaragua and restrengthening.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Little dry slot in the SW quadrant of Ida but its still keeping a very good structure at this early stage has to be said. Of course the good news in some respects is the coast curves back NNE soon and so more of the system should go onland even if tracks due north.