ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[gatorcane]

18z GFS never gets Ida out of the Caribbean and pushes her back south

18Z GFS makes the trough much more amplified over the Eastern CONUS and not nearly as much of a ridge across Florida .....look how displaced that ridge is way off to the east of the Bahamas. Certainly as it is November that is about right.

Here we are at day 5. A pretty clear path into the FL peninsula (Southern Half of FL) or Cuba if Ida wants to make a visit. With that kind of steering, it would not get into the Northern GOM, not even close:

[Ivanhater]

With this run, it wont even make it into the gulf

[gatorcane]

With this run, it wont even make it into the gulf

The SE movement is questionable though. Looking at that H5 steering, an accelerated bend off to the ENE (or even east) or NE is more likely in the NW Carib or SE GOM especially if Ida decides to become a hurricane in the NW Caribbean where it would be influenced by H5 or higher steering. I can't see how it would go SE when the H5 steering is basically WSW/SW to ENE/NE there and the mid-level vortex is near the Western tip of Cuba.

[Ivanhater]

With this run, it wont even make it into the gulf

The SE movement is questionable though. Looking at that H5 steering, an accelerated bend off to the ENE or NE is more likely in the NW Carib or SE GOM. I can't see how it would go SE when the H5 steering is basically WSW/SW to ENE/NE there.

Doesnt seem that questionable to me, every run of the gfs has shown this southern movement as well as other models. This all of course dependent if there is anything left.

[KWT]

If anything the actual structure has improved over the past few hours, though cloud tops have been warming as you'd expect.

[wxman57]

Convection around the center has really collapsed over the past few hours, and the center is expanding. Maybe there is a chance the LLC will dissipate inland.

[gatorcane]

Convection around the center has really collapsed over the past few hours, and the center is expanding. Maybe there is a chance the LLC will dissipate inland.

That would be really good news. Hopefully it does that.

[ozonepete]

Convection around the center has really collapsed over the past few hours, and the center is expanding. Maybe there is a chance the LLC will dissipate inland.

Yes. Significant weakening and no way of knowing if it will survive this other than the climatological odds.

[gatorcane]

That 18Z GFS is actually pretty close to the 12Z GFDL with a NNE movement in the NW Carib and a NNW bend to around the Western tip of Cuba as ridging temporarily builds in over the Bahamas for the first time. So the GFS is sorta joining the GFDL camp on this run. The difference is that the GFDL moves Ida into the SE GOM then makes the ENE turn while the GFS moves Ida East then SE ahead of the cold front south of Cuba. I'm curious what the 18Z GFDL and HWRF do with Ida now that Ida has weakened over Nicaragua today. Those models will be available at 6:30pm EST

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF is pretty bullish on this run and takes it into the NE GOM north of Tampa Bay as a 90K hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRf aiming for central Florida Panhandle

[gatorcane]

18Z GFDL shifts left, toward panhandle. 123 Knot cane in the GOM:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Most models show regeneration once in the NW Caribbean. The GFDL and HWRF show a significant hurricane entering the southern GOM with the GFDL showing a 123K hurricane headed for the Panhandle now. Oddly the 18Z GFS is on the right-side of the guidance now and is the outlier showing a system that never makes it out of the Caribbean. I find that a bit strange.

Why aren't the GFDL/HWRF showing any shear in the GOM? I am skeptical those models will verify here.

[Ivanhater]

I have a feeling, GFDL and HWRF are overdoing Ida, better chance there will be nothing left of Ida

[Sanibel]

It's important to consider the idiosyncrasies of the particular storm. As far as warming and weakening over land Ida has already shown that it can go from a weak swirl to category 1 in near record time. I suspect we can extrapolate that to Ida's re-emergence over water in the primed west Caribbean. This won't be an issue for at least another 36 hours.

I think the Pacific did some mild tugging of Ida over west. Wish we had a sharp radar out of Nicaragua.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL shifts left, toward panhandle. 123 Knot cane in the GOM:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Interesting that it strengthens it in the gulf. Opposite of the shear Idea.

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps approaches Louisiana the moves back south

[Sanibel]

Remember GFDL has already spun up some of the busts this year to 120 knots.

[HurricaneBelle]

WTNT31 KNHC 052348
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA NOW BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND
IDA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.5N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.5N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB