ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[ozonepete]

Most models show regeneration once in the NW Caribbean. The GFDL and HWRF show a significant hurricane entering the southern GOM with the GFDL showing a 123K hurricane headed for the Panhandle now. Oddly the 18Z GFS is on the right-side of the guidance now and is the outlier showing a system that never makes it out of the Caribbean. I find that a bit strange.

Why aren't the GFDL/HWRF showing any shear in the GOM? I am skeptical those models will verify here.

The tropical GFS and CMC also show no shear in the SE Gulf by Tuesday.

However, they show it really growing again by Wednesday morning...

[Sanibel]

This still has that mean look while over land. Could be a little faster than expected north too:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Evil Jeremy]

While Ida's convection has been weakening since this morning (and is almost all gone near the core), convection has been refiring north of the LCC for the past couple of hours. Additionally, Ida is speeding up. She was not forecast to reach her next point on the cone until 06Z/2 AM eastern time (I think that is the correct conversion), and she is practically there now. She is increasing speed and heading north.

[ozonepete]

While Ida's convection has been weakening since this morning (and is almost all gone near the core), convection has been refiring north of the LCC for the past couple of hours. Additionally, Ida is speeding up. She was not forecast to reach her next point on the cone until 06Z/2 AM eastern time (I think that is the correct conversion), and she is practically there now. She is increasing speed and heading north.

I see it too. It's clearly picking up speed now and looks due north to me. So the GFDL wasn't off by much at all.

[Evil Jeremy]

The latest model ensemble is very interesting. Based of this run, I would expect the next NHC cone to be more west in the first 3 days and show a slow bend to the east at the end.

[cycloneye]

Now the two things to watch are,how will the structure be when it emerges into the water and second,how will the upper enviroment be in the Western Caribbean for the system to reorganize again or not.

[ROCK]

Another loop scenario by the NOGAPS similar to the EURO and the 18z GFS. She is left behind in the GOM under some serious shear. Actually the 18z GFS she is pushed back into the carib. Nice agreement...

[ronjon]

Boy the structure of Ida is improving with an eye like feature becoming prominent - this is reminding of Fay and how well her eye structure became over land due to the fricitional effects. Definitely moving northward tonight.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

[wzrgirl1]

Where is everyone? I thought for sure there would be more people on here with a possible threat down the road. I am now starting to see the bend at the end of the run. It's hard to argue with climatology. If it survives, it could very well be a Florida storm. Thank goodness for those strong upper level winds in a few days.

[jlauderdal]

Where is everyone? I thought for sure there would be more people on here with a possible threat down the road. I am now starting to see the bend at the end of the run. It's hard to argue with climatology. If it survives, it could very well be a Florida storm. Thank goodness for those strong upper level winds in a few days.

you answered your own question, anyone west of the bend has little to no concern so they arent here.

[Evil Jeremy]

Where is everyone?

Waiting for the 2010 season.

[Dean4Storms]

Going to get interesting once it emerges into the GOM.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

convection has been refiring north of the LCC for the past couple of hours.

I wonder how much of that is orographically enhanced: I know the atlantic side is mostly plains, but where she seems to be firing is in the mildly high mountains in the center of the country.

[Evil Jeremy]

"Remember, remember, the fifth of November"

This will be a day to remember for those in Nicaragua. I hope they are faring well.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 211130.jpg

Moving northward

[gatorcane]

Definitely a very nice structure albeit with some lacking convection. No reason why this won't regenerate in the NW Caribbean. If the shear is not that bad, it could ramp up pretty quickly. It's definitely feeling the weakness to the north now. Using this WV loop you can see what I mean. Way off to to the NNE of Ida is a large low and attached cold front/trough that stretches from near Bermuda all the way into the GOM. There is some ridging seen in this loop off to the ENE of Ida in the N. Central Caribbean but its getting shunted eastward as that large low traverses to the north of that ridge.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

On another note, something I find ironic is that fact that looking at forecasted lows along the Northern Gulf coast and NE GOM coast.....I see 40s and 50s for the next several nights.....certainly not an indication that anything tropical is lurking to the south.

[Derek Ortt]

Where is everyone? I thought for sure there would be more people on here with a possible threat down the road. I am now starting to see the bend at the end of the run. It's hard to argue with climatology. If it survives, it could very well be a Florida storm. Thank goodness for those strong upper level winds in a few days.

you answered your own question, anyone west of the bend has little to no concern so they arent here.

thats a very dangerous line of thinking

Climo also says cat 3 hurricanes are not likely in the GOM near Thanksgiving. Yet, it has happened

[Blown Away]

Maybe a slight E wobble?
IMO, if Ida has any significant impact on the CONUS it will be from the Florida Big Bend to the south as it slides ahead of the front. IMO, if Ida stalls in the GOM or gets pushed back into the Caribbean it will be a remnant low due to the shear.

[Bocadude85]

Im not sure that there will be much left of Ida once she emerges into the Gulf of Honduras