ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[IvanSurvivor]

I don't know all the models...what is the pink one that goes towards LA/MS, then hooks in over our area? How reliable, etc.

[ozonepete]

El Salvador government declared "green alert" this morning due to the influence of Ida and the disturbance on EPAC. The national meteorological agency is forecasting that 96-E will come closer to Guatemala/El Salvador coasts and with the possible re-strengthening of Ida heavy rains are expected, both systems will help to place the ITCZ just off our coast so we'll have a lot of moisture entering from the Pacific, this type of scenarios are usual on september and october but not in november. Yesterday here in the city where I live the accumulated precipitation was about 30 mm (1.2 inches) and the highest accumaltion in the country was 62 mm (2.44 inches), the forecasters are expecting ammounts of 100 mm on saturday (4 inches) and that could produce landslides and flooding. Right now we've experiencing moderate rainfall and if you look at IR convection is not strong, that's typicall in this cases, convection doen't need to be strong to produce precipitation.

Good luck, macro. Please keep us up to date.

[ozonepete]

The NHC now forecasts Ida to move back open water possibility late tomorrow night rather than on Saturday. That seems more likely as Ida continues to head north, faster than previously expected (though still slowly).

Yeah, that's 12 hours faster than they had yesterday.

[ozonepete]

Do the GFDL or HWRF take SST's into account in their solutions?

Yes.

[ozonepete]

In fact, it looks like it's going even a little faster. This could be off the coast by late tomorrow afternoon.

[Derek Ortt]

I don't think this is moving faster. It appears as if the center is expanding.

I expect a very large system once this emerges into the Caribbean, not the small cyclone we currently have

[Ivanhater]

I don't think this is moving faster. It appears as if the center is expanding.

I expect a very large system once this emerges into the Caribbean, not the small cyclone we currently have

I think it has lost its inner core. Having expanded, it will take a long time to consolidate and get its core back.

[AtlanticWind]

I think there is a good chance this will emerge off the coast around noon friday

[Macrocane]

Like Ike last year? small before landfall and large after coming offshore again.

[wxman57]

As fast as it's weakening, that LLC might track more westward with the lower-level steering currents, leaving the MLC to track more rapidly northward. Center is certainly expanding as Derek said. Sort of reminds me of Isadore of 2002, though it doesn't have near the energy of Isidore. Once Isidore lost its core over the Yucatan, it took days over warm water and low shear to even start to regain it. Conditions will be less favorable for Ida. I'm still hopeful it'll just dissipate and just be a blob of moisture moving northward into the Gulf rather than a TC.

[ozonepete]

I don't think this is moving faster. It appears as if the center is expanding.

I expect a very large system once this emerges into the Caribbean, not the small cyclone we currently have

The broad center is "filling in" as the convection dies out there due to friction, thus it looks like the center is expanding. And yes I agree that this should expand quite a bit in size as it redevelops in the NW Caribbean.

[ozonepete]

i.e., as the convection dies away at the center, it can look like the center is expanding. But the small radius of maximum winds is still there. you can see it in the RGB.

[boca]

It looks like Florida or the peninsula might not the brunt of this storm rather a lopsided sheared mess heading towards the panhandle.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS rolling in...some SW shear at 200MB but not that strong in the NW Caribbean (Gulf of Honduras). Conditions would appear favorable for regeneration in the NW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z GFS is rolling in. Out through 72 hours, looks nearly the same as the 18Z run. Let's see if it brings Ida out of the Caribbean or if it gets buried there.

[MGC]

Looking at the WV loop this evening....appears that any significant shear is removed well to the north of the cyclone, over the central GOM. Thus, Ida should emerge into the NW Carb will little shear until the cyclone moves north of the Yucatan. I think Ida should become a modest to strong TS near the Yucatan Channel......MGC

[sponger]

Its any ones game now. FL Ala border to Tampa is definately in play. Wilma taught us that late season stroms can be dangerous. Lets root for some serious shear early next week.

[boca]

I think with a cold front moving east their should be some shear by next week.

[gatorcane]

Out to 108 hours, the 00Z GFS looks like it is finally starting to diverge a bit from the 18Z run, bringing Ida past just the Western tip of Cuba. I'm looking at the huge trough now to the NW over the CONUS and H5 flow now out of the SW in the SE GOM. Of course Ida is not that well organized in this run either, indicating shear is increasing as it heads north.

[Bocadude85]

Its any ones game now. FL Ala border to Tampa is definately in play. Wilma taught us that late season stroms can be dangerous. Lets root for some serious shear early next week.

I would say that all of the Florida peninsula is in "play"