ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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gatorcane
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#861 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:09 pm

WEll the 00Z GFS is rolling in and looksl ike it won't be showing Ida getting buried in the Caribbean and moving SE south of Cuba. That run did seem suspicious. Looking at the latest 00Z it has Ida in the SE GOM about 100 miles NNW of the 18Z position.
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#862 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:09 pm

00Z GFS thinking of where Ida will be 5 days, thankfully a somewhat sheared system at least.

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#863 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:10 pm

When she gets her feet wet again in the Gulf of Honduras we will obviously start to know more about her strength and then her eventual track. I'm gonna go out on a limb based solely on my gut and not science and say that she'll come ashore somewhere along the West Coast between Everglades City and Tampa as a moderate TS or a Cat 1. That being said it could be stronger if the front influences it. If I recall the increase in forward speed on Wilma due to the interaction with the cold front actually increased her strenght.

Heck, I'll narrow it down even more and say Longboat Key...

This post is just my amatuer opinion and is not based on any science at all...Please refer to the NHC for actual forecast...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#864 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:13 pm

Gfs looking to make landfall on floridas sw coast.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#865 Postby sponger » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:14 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
sponger wrote:Its any ones game now. FL Ala border to Tampa is definately in play. Wilma taught us that late season stroms can be dangerous. Lets root for some serious shear early next week.


I would say that all of the Florida peninsula is in "play"


I would not feel safe in SFL either!
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Re:

#866 Postby ozonepete » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:WEll the 00Z GFS is rolling in and looksl ike it won't be showing Ida getting buried in the Caribbean and moving SE south of Cuba. That run did seem suspicious. Looking at the latest 00Z it has Ida in the SE GOM about 100 miles NNW of the 18Z position.


I just saw the 00Z GFS run up to Wednesday morning. This seems like a much more likely scenario. If Ida is moving faster now (which I really think it is), all of the future runs will have to move it much farther north sooner. I really think the west coast of Florida better pay attention.

BTW, the 18Z runs are always "iffy" because they don't run on actual soundings but on mostly extrapolated data. A Lot of meteorologists I know don't trust that run much at all.
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#867 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:19 pm

Approaching South Florida/Keys at 144 hours:

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Re: Re:

#868 Postby IvanSurvivor » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:20 pm

ozonepete wrote:
gatorcane wrote:WEll the 00Z GFS is rolling in and looksl ike it won't be showing Ida getting buried in the Caribbean and moving SE south of Cuba. That run did seem suspicious. Looking at the latest 00Z it has Ida in the SE GOM about 100 miles NNW of the 18Z position.


I just saw the 00Z GFS run up to Wednesday morning. This seems like a much more likely scenario. If Ida is moving faster now (which I really think it is), all of the future runs will have to move it much farther north sooner. I really think the west coast of Florida better pay attention.

BTW, the 18Z runs are always "iffy" because they don't run on actual soundings but on mostly extrapolated data. A Lot of meteorologists I know don't trust that run much at all.



I was thinking the same thing from what the local met just said...
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#869 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:22 pm

Well given the 00Z GFS run is again showing a more "conventional" track up through the Yucatan, near the Western tip of Cuba and NE into the SE GOM....I have a strong feeling the NHC cone is going to need a right-ward adjustment for the next advisory. It won't be as much as the GFS (unless other 00Z models follow) but it would be a noticeable shift. The NHC does place some emphasis on the GFS typically. Still appears shear really will get to Ida once in the GOM.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#870 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:24 pm

The GFS has been pretty consistent in shearing Ida to death in the gulf, just slightly different spots in the gulf. 00z gfs decouples Ida and moves the circulation back SW

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#871 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:28 pm

Lol.HPC rainfall forecast

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Re:

#872 Postby ozonepete » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:Well given the 00Z GFS run is again showing a more "conventional" track up through the Yucatan, near the Western tip of Cuba and NE into the SE GOM....I have a strong feeling the NHC cone is going to need a right-ward adjustment for the next advisory. It won't be as much as the GFS (unless other 00Z models follow) but it would be a noticeable shift. The NHC does place some emphasis on the GFS typically. Still appears shear really will get to Ida once in the GOM.


OK, well I'm with the NHC as far as the GFS. The GFS is a really good model and just proves itself over and over (though it sucked on shear this season!) And yeah, I think the NHC forecast track for Monday/Tuesday will keep bending to the right tomorrow. I also think, and it's just IMHO that this will come in more quickly enough that it could very well get in ahead of the shear and be pretty strong as it heads for Florida. I have been thinking Pensacola most of the time, but anywhere from there to the Keys obviously has to watch it. The sooner it heads east, the stronger it will be, obviously.
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#873 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:34 pm

Ida does not look healthy at all right now. I would not be surprised if her LLC is currently opening up, although it is hard to tell, given the lack of good visuals and my amateur eyes.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#874 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:35 pm

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#875 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:36 pm

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Not going down easy
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#876 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:38 pm

:uarrow: Considering that Ida has been inland for more than 12 hours,the structure still looks good.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#877 Postby ozonepete » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:41 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: Considering that Ida has been inland for more than 12 hours,the structure still looks good.


I agree. And the center of the circulation is in the NE corner of that open circle, so it will be back over water a lot sooner than most of the forecasts have it.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#878 Postby ozonepete » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:42 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Image


well don't you quote me (heh heh) but you still look like ground zero.


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#879 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:47 pm

it seems the thunderstorm activity is continuing to grow. I agree with Derek this is likely going to be a large and sprawled out system in the NW Caribbean sea.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA - Models

#880 Postby ROCK » Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:47 pm

She makes into the GOM alright but again gets left behind to loop around and get sheared to death. Similar to the EURO, NOGAPS earlier runs.
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