ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[AdamFirst]

This is an interesting scenario -- what does the various weather services do around Florida if Ida loses her tropical characteristics, but it turns into a powerful hybrid superstorm heading towards the peninsula?

Do they still post tropical storm warnings?

[Dean4Storms]

Everything depends on that front first of next week. If the front is delayed or Ida speeds up she could make a north Gulf Coast landfall or west coast Florida landfall before the shear totally rips her apart and turns her LLC or what remains southward. Right now it looks like the models see the front making it into the north Gulf come along Monday night/Tues. The timing of this front will be the key for Gulf coast residents!!

[Aric Dunn]

so when will it be back over water? Any guesses? Looks like NNE movement (wobble) now. GFDL/GFS forecasted this type of movement before NNW/NW movement takes place in a couple of days.

at the latest ida has about 50 miles to go if it were to head straight north.. but it seems a slight nne motion is taking place being a temporary thing or not does not matter much since its only like 10 to 20 miles from the coast to the east.. rough estimate for emerging will be from 5 to 8 pm tonight.

the last few images puts it east of the 10am forecast points again ..

[ozonepete]

This is an interesting scenario -- what does the various weather services do around Florida if Ida loses her tropical characteristics, but it turns into a powerful hybrid superstorm heading towards the peninsula?

Do they still post tropical storm warnings?

Yeah. That's been the standard in the past for the NHC. If it's in the process of transitioning and it has trop storm or hurricane force winds, they leave the warnings up and keep the name. Only after a complete transition to a cold-core low would they turn it over to the local offices.

[wxman57]

What always bothers me with a forecast is when I see a due north motion for the previous 12 hours and the initial projected movement is a sharp deviation by 20-30 degrees (in this case, to the NNW). I think that Ida will very likely track well east of the NHC's forecast, and east of mine. It may pass closer to the western tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

Well as for the 5 day.. Its highly suspect .. first of all on its current track it should be over water later this afternoon but we have to remember that its essentially paralleling the coast and if it wabbles at anytime to the nne then it will be over water much sooner which again allows more time to strengthen. And if it does reach hurricane strength before entering the gulf then extra tropical transition is going to take quite a bit longer. of a more pressing matter if it does transition and slows down as some of the models say then the wind field will expand considerably which would be a problem for coastal flooding especially near the tampa area.. remember the super storm ?

Yup. If that trough does really dig deeper and the high vorticity area at its nose gets close to Ida, you could have a really powerful hybrid.

Tampa Bay is very flood-prone, Even a moderate TS that passes by to the north (bringing in those SW winds) as far north as the big bend area could cause significant flooding in areas such as Bayshore drive. Beach erosion is also a possibility as well.

[chris_fit]

I have been a lurker this season, but I must say, it will be very interesting to see the next day or two unfold.

There is lots of moisture, very warm waters, and and convection firing way north of the center, over water. Once the center moves in that area, I'm really curious to see if the GFDL intensity forecast will be verify, even a little.

Stay Tuned! And thanks to the pro mets for your input here, as always!

[HurricaneBelle]

Tampa Bay is very flood-prone, Even a moderate TS that passes by to the north (bringing in those SW winds) as far north as the big bend area could cause significant flooding in areas such as Bayshore drive. Beach erosion is also a possibility as well.

Cf. 1996's Tropical Storm Josephine:

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2009 ... 30606.html

[Aric Dunn]

Here is my location ( in blue) of the center based on the last few hours of satellite. Its clearly tracking slightly east of N and not sure about the NHC center location ( In red ) but the NHC location is in the middle a band so not sure what thats about..
another thing to remember is that the system will likely be pulled towards the area of less friction as it approaches the water. so this motion could be do to its proximity to the water the east. would not be surprised after looking at it more over the last couple hours it emerges of the coast right at the border. the two blue lines i drew are its general motion that seems to be occurring. use this link to view 1km loop... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[gatorcane]

I'm very surprised there are not more people on the board this morning, especially those in Florida. This is a definite threat for peninsula Florida (first real threat since 2005 really) and we know the intensity forecasts for these systems are problematic. It could be a hurricane or it could just be a weak TS threatening Florida. Just because it is November does not mean it is time to forget about the tropics. Now if it were August or September this board would be packed now I am sure.

and just because its a depression now does not mean it will be in a couple of days. It's got plenty of time to ramp up over those boiling NW Caribbean waters. Ida's structure looks pretty darn good considering its been over land so long.

[srainhoutx]

What always bothers me with a forecast is when I see a due north motion for the previous 12 hours and the initial projected movement is a sharp deviation by 20-30 degrees (in this case, to the NNW). I think that Ida will very likely track well east of the NHC's forecast, and east of mine. It may pass closer to the western tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.

Catching my eye as well. This will likely put the Keys in play. Something to keep an eye on.

[ozonepete]

What always bothers me with a forecast is when I see a due north motion for the previous 12 hours and the initial projected movement is a sharp deviation by 20-30 degrees (in this case, to the NNW). I think that Ida will very likely track well east of the NHC's forecast, and east of mine. It may pass closer to the western tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.

They do seem to be overdoing the NNW. They claim it's because of shortwave ridging that will build in the southeast. The worst part is the main players for steering are weak and not completely in place yet. And I agree with you if there's any more track error it will be more adjustments east and not west.

[ronjon]

What always bothers me with a forecast is when I see a due north motion for the previous 12 hours and the initial projected movement is a sharp deviation by 20-30 degrees (in this case, to the NNW). I think that Ida will very likely track well east of the NHC's forecast, and east of mine. It may pass closer to the western tip of Cuba than the Yucatan.

yeah, and if it tracks more toward the western tip of Cuba shear is forecast to be low through 72 hrs. Honestly, I don't know what the NHC is basing their shear forecasts on over the next 2-3 days. The 06Z GFS shows nowhere more than 15 kts of shear and mostly in the 5-10 kt range. In fact, the 48 hr 06Z GFS 200 mb chart shows a small anticyclone over the system.

[tina25]

Steve Lyons on TWC just did the Tropical Update and he seems pretty confident that the storm will do a loop in the GOM and not make US landfall..

[HurricaneBelle]

This is a definite threat for peninsula Florida (first real threat since 2005 really) and we know the intensity forecasts for these systems are problematic.

Don't forget Fay was a threat last year. Before it made its magical mystery tour of Florida as a TS, it was progged to come up the west coast as a Cat-2 Hurricane.

[cycloneye]

The missions resume tommorow afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 061545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EST THU 06 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-162

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0211A IDA
C. 07/1115Z
D. 17.2N 84.7W
E. 07/1500Z TO 07/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A IDA
C. 08/0145Z
D. 18.7N 85.4W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 6 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 08/1800Z

[tolakram]

The shear is just not going to fade away, the models are completely clueless about shear normally, and seem worse then normal this year. In my opinion.



Review the shear maps over time. Shear just doesn't quickly fade away, especially since much of it to the north is associated with the jet.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Again, in my opinion.

[artist]

Here is my location ( in blue) of the center based on the last few hours of satellite. Its clearly tracking slightly east of N and not sure about the NHC center location ( In red ) but the NHC location is in the middle a band so not sure what thats about..
another thing to remember is that the system will likely be pulled towards the area of less friction as it approaches the water. so this motion could be do to its proximity to the water the east. would not be surprised after looking at it more over the last couple hours it emerges of the coast right at the border. the two blue lines i drew are its general motion that seems to be occurring. use this link to view 1km loop... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

ARic, if you run a water vapor loop you can see a swirl you can follow where the NHC is putting the center, or I can at least. I was surprised as I was tending toward your area as well, until I ran it.

[HURAKAN]

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[maxx9512]

I always thought not to use water vapor to find a center. I was told that can be decieving to look at.
Just an amateur giving his two cents for what it's worth!