ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

Models still have no idea whats going to happen with the trough ... all seem to turn it southerly at some point nearing the florida coast.

[Weatherboy1]

Thanks cycloneye. Does appear to be deepening in the graphic, with a central pressure in the mid-980s as it transitions. This could be a significant weather event, albeit not a "true" tropical system in the end, for FL.

[gatorcane]

I think its fair to say some decoupling could happen with Ida if it decides to approach FL from the GOM.

Either that or a large spread out, sheared system will blow through FL with some wind and rain.

[wyq614]

Not sure if it will bring torrencial rain to western Cuba, especially the Isle of Youth and Pinar del Rio, the radar of La Bajada has detected the outer band of Ida, in fact the radar of Punta del Este de la isla de juventud is worth more attention, but it's currently inactive...

I advise you to keep an eye on La Bajada radar.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... ar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

[Decomdoug]

As a TS it could be benifical. Southeast central coast has been shortchanged again this summer in the rainfall department.

[Macrocane]

It seems like the convection is eager to wrap up again around the center it will be very interesting to see how rapid the inner core redevelops. By the way, here all morning was cloudy but without rain, since an hour ago it started to drizzle and now heavy rain is falling.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 12z model run is pretty much done, and many of the models have moved east and are curving towards FL at the end. Even the UKMET, which did not want to show much of a bend before, now shows landfall in central FL.

Oh, and the new best track that cycloneye just posted has the center of Ida just hugging the coast. She has moved (officially) NNE over the past couple of hours. It will be interesting to see if Ida even makes much more westward progress.

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO has bad weather for Ivanhaters area. How do you interpret this run Ivan?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Ivanhater]

The 12z EURO has bad weather for Ivanhaters area. How do you interpret this run Ivan?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

This is the first run in a while the Euro develops Ida, landfalling on the north central Gulfcoast. I think it will come very close to the NCGC before looping



And again, lopsided on the NW side

[Blown Away]

I think the models are starting to follow climatology. The models are starting to bend Ida back to the NE in the GOM and I think we will see the models trend farther S with the NE bend.

[ROCK]

The 12z EURO has bad weather for Ivanhaters area. How do you interpret this run Ivan?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

This is the first run in a while the Euro develops Ida, landfalling on the north central Gulfcoast. I think it will come very close to the NCGC before looping



And again, lopsided on the NW side

You are correct Ivan, first run I have seen in a few days. All the prior runs were for ida to reach the GOM then get sheared to death....weird that the low in the BOC would effect IDA with the winds confined to the NW side. Typically all the energy would be NE with the approaching trof and UL winds aloft screaming out of the west...

[Ivanhater]

Another point, the faster she moves, the farther north she will go before looping. She is already ahead of schedule coming off the coast. Something to watch for.

[HURAKAN]

Offshore

[Ivanhater]

Exactly Rock, I went back and looked at all the models, and they all are lopsided to the NW approaching the northern gulfcoast before looping, It has to be the interaction with the BOC low.

BTW, you might want to go look at the 12z Nogaps, pretty entertaining for your area. Loops in the Western Gulf then heads north again strengthening

[Stormcenter]

Tampa and eastward is the most likely area to be affected by Ida's remains.
As I said before in another post it's November folks that's where it should go.
Of course this is just my opinion and we all know the tropics can do some crazing
things at times.

[CrazyC83]

This seems to be setting up similar to the November 1925 hurricane...

[ozonepete]

It seems like the convection is eager to wrap up again around the center it will be very interesting to see how rapid the inner core redevelops. By the way, here all morning was cloudy but without rain, since an hour ago it started to drizzle and now heavy rain is falling.

hey macro, what city in El Salvador are you in?

[cycloneye]

This seems to be setting up similar to the November 1925 hurricane...

Here it is.

[wxman57]

I'm beginning to think that there may not be much left of Ida when it reaches FL. It may well be absorbed by the approaching frontal boundary and the larger low along the front. Shear will be quite high in the Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

Looking at the models(being lopsided to the NW) and reading the AFD's, it looks to be a very windy and rainy start to the week for the Northern Gulfcoast with the interaction of Ida and the BOC low.