ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[gatorcane]

the latest shear map may be decreasing but it looks like shear is increasing some over Ida to me. What does everybody think?

[Aric Dunn]

the latest shear map may be decreasing but it looks like shear is increasing some over Ida to me. What does everybody think?

if you toggle the the images between the last few back and forth you can see the southern edge of the 15kts retreating north ever so slightly every 3 hours.

[ericinmia]

Thanks Jay, good to see you around.

In regards to my previous post on the Euro.... to add:

CMC is doing the same thing...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html

So is the NOGAPS..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... sloop.html

GFS and UKmet are more on the north and then loop back south track.

It is really clear that the truth is going to show in the next 24hrs on whether or not IDA crosses over to the Yucatan "at it's base" to join the other disturbance..... We will see i guess... I don't see it happening right now.

[Derek Ortt]

I actually see an anti-cyclone building over Ida, albeit a very small one

The main problem with the convection at the present time is that the southern side has downslope flow off of the mountains. This may need to get 100 miles into the Carib before this really takes off

[Aric Dunn]

I actually see an anti-cyclone building over Ida, albeit a very small one

The main problem with the convection at the present time is that the southern side has downslope flow off of the mountains. This may need to get 100 miles into the Carib before this really takes off

yeah it needs to get a little farther away for sure.. but the signs are already starting ..

[Aric Dunn]

Just think tomorrow will have radar to stare at for endless hours trying to depict the center on the lovely cuban radar or the Yucatan one .. lol

[ericinmia]

NE Quad is starting to pop...

[NEXRAD]

Per the HPC, apparently the Euro has been persistent in this Bay of Campeche low and there exists some evidence supporting this model. If the Bay of Campeche low develops, though, I'd lean towards anticipating Ida to shear-out owing to the non-tropical low's dominance. The models might be merging the two systems and showing (perhaps correctly) a hybrid scenario unfolding. Though, still, I am skeptical of some of the intensities I'm seeing.

- Jay
South Florida

[cycloneye]

Aric mentioned Cuban Radars and here is one of them with base in the most Western part of that country that for sure will be very helpful in the comming days.

Link to radars site.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps, dangerously close to the Louisiana coast

[Aric Dunn]

Aric mentioned Cuban Radars and here is one of them with base in the most Western part of that country that for sure will be very helpful in the comming days.

Link to radars site.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

here is the cancun radar .. id does not animate so you have to save each image and loop it yourself.. or typically i do it and post it ..

[Rainband]

Per the HPC, apparently the Euro has been persistent in this Bay of Campeche low and there exists some evidence supporting this model. If the Bay of Campeche low develops, though, I'd lean towards anticipating Ida to shear-out owing to the non-tropical low's dominance. The models might be merging the two systems and showing (perhaps correctly) a hybrid scenario unfolding. Though, still, I am skeptical of some of the intensities I'm seeing.

- Jay
South Florida

what are the intensities?

[ericinmia]

Per the HPC, apparently the Euro has been persistent in this Bay of Campeche low and there exists some evidence supporting this model. If the Bay of Campeche low develops, though, I'd lean towards anticipating Ida to shear-out owing to the non-tropical low's dominance. The models might be merging the two systems and showing (perhaps correctly) a hybrid scenario unfolding. Though, still, I am skeptical of some of the intensities I'm seeing.

- Jay
South Florida

Would that change though if IDA were to get her act together in the next 24hrs as none of the models in question show? It makes sense to me that if IDA were to get to lets say a cat1-2, which is well beyond what those global models see in comparison to the BOC low... would the BOC low still have an strong influence over it?
Thanks,
-Eric

[Aric Dunn]

And the Belize radar.. to bad the belize radar does not see like a 100 miles farther east..
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm

[Derek Ortt]

the problem is, there is not much of a BOC low right now and Ida is moving faster than expected

[AdamFirst]

convection is becoming more symmetric around the center by the hour....this could ramp up into a hurricane by later tonight...would not surprise me.

Seems a bit of a stretch to reach hurricane strength tonight, but it should definitely be a tropical storm.

I retract this statement.

[ericinmia]

the problem is, there is not much of a BOC low right now and Ida is moving faster than expected

The BOC low appears to be falling apart if anything, at least to my untrained eye.

This long loop shows some interesting views...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_CARIBWIDE/animir.html

[ericinmia]

convection is becoming more symmetric around the center by the hour....this could ramp up into a hurricane by later tonight...would not surprise me.

Seems a bit of a stretch to reach hurricane strength tonight, but it should definitely be a tropical storm.

I retract this statement.

Here is a long loop that shows some interesting views...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_CARIBWIDE/animir.html

It shows how well organized it was prior to land, and that it's making a fairly quick comeback....

[Aric Dunn]

Im not even looking at the models past day 2 or three right now cause they offer very little... too many other things that are going on now will change those forecast... situation is too complex for the models..

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL does a loop in the GOM as a cat 2.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation