ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Bocadude85]

Ida is still too bare on 3 sides. Could still make hurricane. Shear making illusion of N movement.

No Im pretty sure she is moving North

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro..quite a consensus showing Ida nearing or hitting the north central gulf coast

[Macrocane]

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I knew the NHC was going to issue and update it looked pretty good to be just a TD, I still think it can make it to cat 1 hurricane status again, wind shear is moderate waters are warm TCHP is very high and interaction with land has not been such a big problem to her. I don't think it will reach the US with hurricane intensity because conditions are hostile and very complex in the GOM. Ida has been and is going to be a very interesting system to watch.

[jinftl]

This is quite an illusion then...no longitude gain in the last 24 hours (net movement of east by 0.1 deg)

Per NHC:
Ida continues to move northward at 360/6

03 GMT 11/06/09 13.8N 84.1W
09 GMT 11/06/09 14.4N 84.1W
15 GMT 11/06/09 15.0N 84.0W
21 GMT 11/06/09 15.7N 83.9W
03 GMT 11/07/09 16.2N 84.0W (most recent fix)

Ida is still too bare on 3 sides. Could still make hurricane. Shear making illusion of N movement.


2nd Rapid Intensification looks unlikely.

[Sanibel]

That black dot CDO is what you would look for for restrengthening.


I can't figure out where the center is? One place makes it look WAY off right. I think it is near trop points and sheared creating an illusion:

[jinftl]

More models buying into east/southeast track in time...

[xcool22]

model move back

[jinftl]

Not sure where center is either...but if it is under that mass of red/black....this thing could get its act together in a hurry

That black dot CDO is what you would look for for restrengthening.


I can't figure out where the center is? One place makes it look WAY off right. I think it is near trop points and sheared creating an illusion:

[Sanibel]

The shortwave loop makes it look like it is there. I mean like way right and more towards ME!


Will we wake up in a few hours and see a big black IR burst and strenthening hurricane?

[jinftl]

WHo knows...if you had told me we would even be talking about the system as it is right now in november of this season....i would have thought 'no way'.

The shortwave loop makes it look like it is there. I mean like way right and more towards ME!


Will we wake up in a few hours and see a big black IR burst and strenthening hurricane?

[Bocadude85]

00z Euro..quite a consensus showing Ida nearing or hitting the north central gulf coast

Not saying it wont happen... but I would be very surprised to see a NGOM landfall.. IM thinking she merges with the front and thats that.

[Sanibel]

WHo knows...if you had told me we would even be talking about the system as it is right now in november of this season....i would have thought 'no way'.

At least you got something to cross over your warm Caribbean SST's.

[xcool22]

http://i37.tinypic.com/2lo3q6b.jpg

[jinftl]

Yep...now i get to see what actually happens instead of theorizing 'if' a system moved over this incredible area of tchp.

WHo knows...if you had told me we would even be talking about the system as it is right now in november of this season....i would have thought 'no way'.

At least you got something to cross over your warm Caribbean SST's.

[boca]

I have to get up in 4 1/2hrs for work and I can't sleep because of Ida's track.

[ozonepete]

gotta go to bed now, but this sure looks more and more like it will never go NNW. I'd be watching this really closely if I lived in south Florida...

[fci]

http://i37.tinypic.com/2lo3q6b.jpg

Do you know what the light green "CLP5" is?

Looks like track of Irene, is that what it is or an actual model?

[deltadog03]

I think chances are higher this hits the panhandle than anything south of tampa.

[jinftl]

center near 17N 84W (or a bit south...maybe 16.6N or 16.8N)?

[AdamFirst]

http://i37.tinypic.com/2lo3q6b.jpg

Do you know what the light green "CLP5" is?

Looks like track of Irene, is that what it is or an actual model?

The CLP is a climatology model I think.