ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[deltadog03]

I think its pretty clear that the llc and mlc are clearly healthy and connected. I think we are seeing the beginings of a CDO.

[jinftl]

Forecasters in Cuba must be taking notice of what is lurking to the south of the western part of the island.

I think its pretty clear that the llc and mlc are clearly healthy and connected. I think we are seeing the beginings of a CDO.

[fci]

http://i37.tinypic.com/2lo3q6b.jpg

Do you know what the light green "CLP5" is?

Looks like track of Irene, is that what it is or an actual model?

The CLP is a climatology model I think.

Thank you Adam, you are right!
Upon further review I looked it up and it is Climatology and Persistance Model.
Makes sense as it looks like Irene and presumes what climatologically seems to happen which is a NNE to NE track this time of year from where the system is now.
Ida does look a lot Irene and I read up on the archive of that storm in 1999 which has been mentioned earlier in this thread. NHC had Irene progged to go North and she defied the predictions and headed NNE and never really turned North. They had her hitting the Keys and West Coast and she came across Key West , Cape Sable and then across the SE peninsula through Palm Beach County and then offshore by Vero Beach. Wilma had "some" similarities track-wise although she was predicted to go NE and subsequently did.
All goes to climatology which leads me to be very skeptical of the present prediction of Ida going through the East Central GOM.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.Thanks again

[wyq614]

I think they're defenitely ignoring the possible influence of Ida towards Cuba

Estará mayormente nublado en todo el archipiélago con numerosas lluvias principalmente en zonas de la costa norte de la mitad occidental, los que serán aislados en el resto

mostly cloudy all over the country with numerous rain mainly in the zone of north coast of the western Cuba (?), which will be scattered in the rest parts of the island.

Los vientos soplarán de región Nordeste, con velocidades entre 15 y 30 kilómetros por hora, que serán superiores en zonas de la costa norte occidental.

Northeast winds of 15-30 km/h (?) and will be superior in the northern coastal zone of the Western Cuba...

I don't know why they're focusing only just the northern coast... without even mention what may happen to the Isle of Youth and Southern Pinar del Rio...

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... o/pttn.txt

[wyq614]

model mm5-Cuba goes with CMC

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... s/presion/

[Thunder44]

4am advisory now has TS Watches for parts of Yucatan Penn and Western Cuba. Also winds have increased to 45mph.

[wyq614]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 070834
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009

AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 4 AM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 84.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 84.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 070857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED
LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND
45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE
THE DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IDA
AND THE TROUGH DIFFER...MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...SHOW IDA TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL DURING THIS TIME AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY DAY 5
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA...
TURNING SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW OFFICIAL THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...AS
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
FURTHER AS IDA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE GIVEN
THE OBSERVED INTENSITY TRENDS...AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 50 KT IN 36
HOURS. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON DAY 2 AS IDA ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR AND BEGINS TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO
IDA.

THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.1N 84.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 84.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.5N 85.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 87.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 26.5N 88.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 85.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KWT]

I just don't think we are going to see much more then a slight kink to the NNW over the next 24hrs, I think this is just going to dart straight north then bend NE. If it doesn't take much of a NW turn then odds of a landfall do have to increase.

Also starting to remind me in terms of structure alot of Irene, not as developed but its got plenty of time yet.

[jlauderdal]

IDA has really turned into a very efficient system taking advantage of heat and fighting off negative influences e.g land. The setup downstream is becoming very complicated and it will be interesting post-mortem to see how the modeling handled the interaction with the shortwave and the expected shearing. Looking forward to watching everyone battle it out the next few days on intensity and course because this one is not looking to be real straightforward.

[cycloneye]

Mobile NWS discussion.Interesting what they talk about the front.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL
GET STRETCHED BY ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS/CA
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT IS A GENERAL EASTERLY. IDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF...WITH MODERATE FLOW BECOMING STRONG
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. AS IDA
MOVES PAST CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE SUDNAY...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THIS
IS LATER THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING...SO THE FARTHEST
NORTH POINT OF IDA`S TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
CENTER AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE 34 KNOTS WINDS STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA.".........

[cycloneye]

Pinar del Rio in Western Cuba radar.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... B1=RADARES

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF makes landfall at Florida Panhandle.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation



06z GFDL does a big loop in the GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ida getting her act back together this morning. I expect further strengthening and with that a continued poleward path. I don't expect a NW motion out of her at all. NNNW at the most over the next 2 days, with occassional NNE jogs. Storm will begin to elongate as the pressure gradient increases as she heads north through the eastern gulf, bringing copious amounts of rain to tampa northward. system will stall nw of tampa, at least the center will appear to, though the cloud field will continue to grow to the northeast as the storm transitions to a subtropical system ahead of, and then merging with, the approaching front. When it meets and becomes absorbed by it, all of its moisture and energy will scream northeastward over central and northern florida. Looks to be a very wet and windy early part of the week for northcentral florida and southeast georgia.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

cycloneye,
So, are you buying the loop scenarios?

[ronjon]

Checking the latest dynamical models (HWRF and GFDL) leads me to believe we'll end up with a track closer to HWRF but adjusted eastward for a landfall in the big bend region of FL. I think the latest 06Z HWRF might be on to something but is perhaps still a bit too far west (and fast) with its FL panhandle LF. The latest HWRF looks more realistic with a turn toward the east in the panhandle and exiting out to the Atlantic. I'm not buying the semi-circle path of the GFDL from Mobile all the way down the west coast of FL.

[cycloneye]

cycloneye,
So, are you buying the loop scenarios?

Not sold yet.I prefer to wait another 24 hours to see how are all the factors playing at that time.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...

...PERIPHERAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM IDA POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WITH A NORTH
COMPONENT WILL RESTRICT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
OTHERWISE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. OPEN CELL STRATO-CU OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL MOVE ASHORE
AND TO SOME DEGREE INLAND BEFORE ERODING IN DRY AIRMASS. LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE 60S WITH SOME NEAR 70 DEGREE READINGS ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS AND TREASURE COAST.

MON-TUE...THE TWO MAIN FEATURES AT PLAY WILL BE THE RATHER LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SEAWARD/EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS AND TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MON MORN WILL FIND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND
THE EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING CONTINUED LONG FETCH
EASTERLIES...WHILE IDA SHOULD BE FINDING HER WAY TOWARD THE OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WILL
REINFORCE A BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL WINDY PATTERN WITH A PROLONGED
CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. IDA WILL
ENDEAVOR TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF THE MARITIME FLOW
ACROSS ECFL...WILL OFFER A REINTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN MON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/COUNTIES...THEN INCREASING AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE. THE GFS REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ITS HANDLING OF IDA BUT ITS SOLUTION
IS WITHIN THE REALM OF REASONABLE POSSIBILITIES. THUS...THE
FORECAST FOR TUE BEARS WATCHING AS IDA`S EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FACTORS. IDA MAY MOVE NORTH A LITTLE
FASTER AND THEREBY OFFER A HYBRID-STYLE TORNADO OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE PENINSULA TUE INTO WED. YET...OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN ALSO IMPROVE WITH IDA`S CLOSEST APPROACH.

EXTENDED...IDA SEEMS DESTINED FOR A TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL AS
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AND BRING ADVERSE
MID-LEVEL SHEAR TO THE REGION. IDA WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED DUE TO
THE ADDED VERTICAL SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ASSIMLATED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...IT WILL INVIGORATE THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ITS REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TUE NITE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY REDUCING. FOR THU AND
FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ALONG WITH SOME OVERALL
DEEP LAYER DRYING.



SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....DS

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 071156
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

...IDA CONTINUING NORTHWARD...

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE...AND FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...360 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Warning issued for Cayman Islands.

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

[jinftl]

Center is underneath 'ball of convection'.....17.4N 84.1W...