ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Ida should start tapping those warmest waters very soon. Could she explode like Charlie did?

[Blown Away]

Looking at the satellite this morning I'm thinking the NHC may be a little conservative with their wind forecast? If Ida deepens into a hurricane I wonder how that will influence the track?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Here I am at Disney World, now obsessed with Ida.
The increase in forward speed concerns me. If its going to raise the water level at home, I need to secure my boat and spyder but won't be back home until late tomorrow night. Hopefully this slows way down and ends up shunted to the NE south of florida! -not to throw the cubans under the bus, but you know what I mean.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the satellite this morning I'm thinking the NHC may be a little conservative with their wind forecast?

Crew will find stronger winds than 40kts when they reach Ida later today.

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak T numbers go up to 45kts.

07/1145 UTC 17.6N 84.0W T3.0/3.0 IDA -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Blown Away]

SSD dvorak T numbers go up to 45kts.

07/1145 UTC 17.6N 84.0W T3.0/3.0 IDA -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Not a big deal, but slightly east.

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

What a nice morning here! cool, rainy and gray. We've had precipitation for 18 hours now, we even had a dense fog last night. Even though the rains are not directly related to Ida the complex pattern of Ida, the BOC system and 96 E is responsible for this weather. Ida looks very good at this time, the convection is strong and the CDO is symmetrical although outflow and banding are restricted on the southern semicircle I still believe that Ida could regain hurricane statue before she enters in the GOM.

[jinftl]

Confirms that what we still have is a storm moving essentially due north....a wobble west or a wobble east....but there has been no meaningful change in longitude in the last 33 hours...on the other hand, ida is gaining latitude faster than expected - the 4am forecast called for her to reach 18.1N at 4pm today. She is already halfway there at 7am (in just 3 hours).

03 GMT 11/06/09 13.8N 84.1W
09 GMT 11/06/09 14.4N 84.1W
15 GMT 11/06/09 15.0N 84.0W
21 GMT 11/06/09 15.7N 83.9W
03 GMT 11/07/09 16.2N 84.0W
09 GMT 11/07/09 17.1N 84.1W
1145 GMT 11/07/09 17.6N 84.0W (current estimate from post below)

SSD dvorak T numbers go up to 45kts.

07/1145 UTC 17.6N 84.0W T3.0/3.0 IDA -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Not a big deal, but slightly east.

[xironman]

Actually if it stays east and south the conditions aren't horrible

[ocala]

The way that CDO is growing it looks like an eye should pop up out of there.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

In line with SSD Dvorak,45kts.

AL, 11, 2009110712, , BEST, 0, 174N, 841W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

First visible image.Eye feature trying to pop out?

[Blown Away]

Actually if it stays east and south the conditions aren't horrible

I agree, if Ida were to take a Wilma type track I think we could see a hurricane for Florida, fortunately Ida is going to plow into the shear and cooler waters of the East/Central GOM.

[HURAKAN]

No time to waste for Ida

[cycloneye]

The mission for today was supposed to haved been in the air since 6:15 AM EST.But still no obs yet.Maybe,they will depart from a base much closer,Homestead base?

[jlauderdal]

No time to waste for Ida

impressive towers for a system that came offshore 24 hours ago, if i were in western cuba i would be preparing the tin roof

[robbielyn]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. AS IDA TRACKS NORTH OUT OF
THE CARRIBEAN BY SUNDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO RAISE SKY
COVER A BIT EACH DAY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE SHIELD OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN H5 RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ATOP FLORIDA. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND THE ACTUAL H8
TEMPERATURES THE MAV MOS SEEMED TO BE TOO HIGH ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD AND SO WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CLARITY THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. WITH IDA CURRENTLY IN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...A NORTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE
GOMEX AS A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BY NHC. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL PATH OF IDA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL TRACKS A
LITTLE MORE WEST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.

I didn't put all of the discussion on here but they are saying it will decouple d/t low and get absorbed so increase pops to 30% and go extratropical. no mention of possible tornado threat possibilities or anything just another day in tampa.

[Cryomaniac]

Looking very impressive now.

[cycloneye]

Panoramic view.

[cycloneye]

:( AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. AS IDA TRACKS NORTH OUT OF
THE CARRIBEAN BY SUNDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO RAISE SKY
COVER A BIT EACH DAY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE SHIELD OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN H5 RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ATOP FLORIDA. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND THE ACTUAL H8
TEMPERATURES THE MAV MOS SEEMED TO BE TOO HIGH ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD AND SO WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CLARITY THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. WITH IDA CURRENTLY IN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...A NORTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE
GOMEX AS A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BY NHC. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL PATH OF IDA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL TRACKS A
LITTLE MORE WEST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.

I merged the topic that you made with the main discussion thread of Ida as only threads for Invest and Tropical Cyclones are allowed in this forum.