ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[drezee]

I am not sure what the NHC is seeing, but i see a TC with beautiful outflow in all quads w/ an exploding anvil over heading toward the warmest TCHP in the Atlantic in about 12 hours...I would be forecasting a hurricane for sure!!!

[tgenius]

I meant with a direct landfall in South FL.. I was around for Irene so I remember the predictions and the result.. all of Miami got flooded pretty bad.

[ericinmia]

Yeah Eric, notice the blow up of convection on the southeast side? As Ida moves further from the coast, the inflow is becoming better established on the Southeast side.

Agreed. definately showing good potential with fairly good outflow all around. You can still see a little shear from that outflow jet, but the shear is doing the storm a favor in how divergent it is. It's allowing Ida to regain strength much faster...

[jinftl]

One thing to keep in mind is that systems that are tranisitioning to extratropical typically have expansive wind fields.. esp on the east side. Add in the pressure gradient, and there could be gale force winds over an enormous area of real estate, particularly on the immediate coast.

NWS Miami already talking about a possible wind advisory...

.AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER. SO IT WILL CONTINUE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS SHOW WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN THE 25-28KT
RANGE TODAY BUT INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH WILL PREVAIL TODAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...BUT
SUN-MON EXPECT THE GUSTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY 40 MPH. SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON.

It will be interesting to see the extent of Ida's wind field since the passage overland.....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

I meant with a direct landfall in South FL.. I was around for Irene so I remember the predictions and the result.. all of Miami got flooded pretty bad.

The 06z GFDL loves the chances of a SFL landfall.

[pojo]

The mission for today was supposed to haved been in the air since 6:15 AM EST.But still no obs yet.Maybe,they will depart from a base much closer,Homestead base?

Keesler

[tgenius]

I meant with a direct landfall in South FL.. I was around for Irene so I remember the predictions and the result.. all of Miami got flooded pretty bad.

The 06z GFDL loves the chances of a SFL landfall.

and how reliable has GFDL been this year? There's been so few storms I haven't followed much on the models.

[robbielyn]

That was from 5 am. what are we on a 6 hour right now? I got my info from ruskin in the 7 day forecast for spring hill, fl north of tampa and it didn't say that. Ask Cyclone he moved my thread but it said the forecast is more clear this morning. It will decouple and merge with the low and become extratropical. No high winds above 21mph for my area. What is the exact url you used? Maybe mine was too local. I went to noaa.gov and typed in my zip.

[gatorcane]

I meant with a direct landfall in South FL.. I was around for Irene so I remember the predictions and the result.. all of Miami got flooded pretty bad.

The 06z GFDL loves the chances of a SFL landfall.

Wouldn't be much left of Ida by then so no worries.

[Evil Jeremy]

Yeah Eric, notice the blow up of convection on the southeast side? As Ida moves further from the coast, the inflow is becoming better established on the Southeast side.

Agreed. definately showing good potential with fairly good outflow all around. You can still see a little shear from that outflow jet, but the shear is doing the storm a favor in how divergent it is. It's allowing Ida to regain strength much faster...

I see Ida heading north with a few wobbles. If she wants to make the passage between Cuba and the Yucatan, she needs to start turning westward now.

[Thunder44]

The mission for today was supposed to haved been in the air since 6:15 AM EST.But still no obs yet.Maybe,they will depart from a base much closer,Homestead base?

They didn't send out a new TCPOD on Friday. So there could of been changes to schedule.

[jinftl]

NWS Tampa Bay Hazardous Weather Outlook...they issue 4 each day, so another should be issued around lunchtime
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=61

That was from 5 am. what are we on a 6 hour right now? I got my info from ruskin in the 7 day forecast for spring hill, fl north of tampa and it didn't say that. Ask Cyclone he moved my thread but it said the forecast is more clear this morning. It will decouple and merge with the low and become extratropical. No high winds above 21mph for my area. What is the exact url you used? Maybe mine was too local. I went to noaa.gov and typed in my zip.

[fci]

I meant with a direct landfall in South FL.. I was around for Irene so I remember the predictions and the result.. all of Miami got flooded pretty bad.

Understood.
What I am saying is that I would not be shocked if Ida followed a similar path, landfall on SW coast and across the Peninsula.
I think a direct landfall in South Florida is not at all out of the question.
If she crosses Western Cuba and does not go between Cuba and The Yucatan, this becomes even more likely.
That is a key thing I will be watching.
Irene dropped copious amounts of rain and caused flooding well beyond expectation.
I hope that I am incorrect and Ida follows the projected path which is contrary to climatology.

[Evil Jeremy]

...IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH

[cycloneye]

The mission for today was supposed to haved been in the air since 6:15 AM EST.But still no obs yet.Maybe,they will depart from a base much closer,Homestead base?

They didn't send out a new TCPOD on Friday. So there could of been changes to schedule.

This was the thursday TCPOD.They made a typing error on the date of fridays TDPOD.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EST THU 05 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z

[pepeavilenho]

[AdamFirst]

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.9N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 071452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

...IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES...
430 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.9N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

[Evil Jeremy]

Also important, the windfield has grown significantly since the 5 AM advisory: TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES

[Ivanhater]

This shows the rapid strengthening and the turn toward the NW