ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[IvanSurvivor]

Mobile NWS discussion.Interesting what they talk about the front.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL
GET STRETCHED BY ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS/CA
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT IS A GENERAL EASTERLY. IDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF...WITH MODERATE FLOW BECOMING STRONG
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. AS IDA
MOVES PAST CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE SUDNAY...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THIS
IS LATER THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING...SO THE FARTHEST
NORTH POINT OF IDA`S TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
CENTER AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE 34 KNOTS WINDS STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA.".........

Was just reading a few pages back...between this from Mobile NWS discussion, Ivanhater's shear map and what I just heard on the tropical update, starting to think the NGOM coast may not be as much in the clear as we were starting to think. If, Ida was to move faster than expected and that shear map is right, it could get interesting around here instead of SFL. Any thoughts?

[drezee]

000
URNT11 KNHC 071423
97779 13474 70285 89200 76200 26025 73742 /5755
RMK AF306 0211A IDA OB 01
SWS = 13 KTS


RECON ON THE WAY!!!

[jinftl]

Impacts (direct and indirect, due largely to tightening pressure gradient) like the ones described below may be felt across a very wide area....from the entire atlantic coast of florida down through the keys and north up the gulf coast and west across the panhandle into the northcentral gulf.

Mobile NWS discussion.Interesting what they talk about the front.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL
GET STRETCHED BY ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS/CA
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT IS A GENERAL EASTERLY. IDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF...WITH MODERATE FLOW BECOMING STRONG
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. AS IDA
MOVES PAST CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE SUDNAY...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THIS
IS LATER THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING...SO THE FARTHEST
NORTH POINT OF IDA`S TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
CENTER AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE 34 KNOTS WINDS STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA.".........

Was just reading a few pages back...between this from Mobile NWS discussion, Ivanhater's shear map and what I just heard on the tropical update, starting to think the NGOM coast may not be as much in the clear as we were starting to think. If, Ida was to move faster than expected and that shear map is right, it could get interesting around here instead of SFL. Any thoughts?

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 071500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF
HOOKING BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH
AGENCIES...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM.

IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/8. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48
HOURS AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
HWRF ALL MOVE THE CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW IT REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD...BUT TURNS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY EASTWARD BEFORE REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...WHILE NOT IDEAL...APPEAR CONDUCIVE ENOUGH
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
ONCE IDA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AND WATERS BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAKENING...HOWEVER THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND AN
EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS
WEAKENING THAN TYPICAL...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 84.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 86.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 88.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 86.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

[drezee]

Recon has finally left and is sending obs! I expect a hurricane by the 400pm advisory.

[WindRunner]

URNT11 KNHC 071458
97779 14504 70235 87019 76200 15015 70733 /5757
RMK AF306 0211A IDA OB 02
SWS = 31 KTS
;

Looks like I got beat to it...but yeah, they're definitely up, probably about to start going into the storm.

[pojo]

The mission for today was supposed to haved been in the air since 6:15 AM EST.But still no obs yet.Maybe,they will depart from a base much closer,Homestead base?

They didn't send out a new TCPOD on Friday. So there could of been changes to schedule.

give CARCAH/forecasters some time.... they need their morning coffee.

[AdamFirst]

IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/8. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48
HOURS AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
MODELS AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
HWRF ALL MOVE THE CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW IT REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
NORTHWARD...BUT TURNS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY EASTWARD BEFORE REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.



NHC doesn't know what it's going to do.

Plus they're going conservative on the intensity forecast, as they tend to do.

[Evil Jeremy]

INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 84.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W 60 KT

That is conservative IMO. The Discussion said that they were factoring current trends into their new intensity forecast. Well, recent trends would suggest more than just a 5 MPH increase over the next 12 hours, wouldn't they? This is not a fish, the NHC should not be this conservative.

[cycloneye]

[drezee]

INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 84.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W 60 KT

That is conservative IMO. The Discussion said that they were factoring current trends into their new intensity forecast. Well, recent trends would suggest more than just a 5 MPH increase over the next 12 hours, wouldn't they? This is not a fish, the NHC should not be this conservative.

My earlier point exactly, I agree 100%! recon will be in the center in about 1 hour! Let the count down begin!!

[AdamFirst]

[ericinmia]

This shows the strength of Ida relative to the rest of the local basin...
The old PAC Invest 96E is coming across land, interestingly toward Ida... not toward the BOC Low as the many of the models had been predicting a while back. I wonder what difference this will make, as it is showing that Ida appears to be winning as the dominant feature and not the BOC low... ???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-ft.html

[Ivanhater]

Don't like the recent NHC disco. May not weaken as much as previously thought. Derek's forecast is for a landfall in the Greater Pensacola area at 70 knots I believe.

[jinftl]

Again, not a map showing an 'all clear' for anywhere in florida or the easternhalf of the northen gulf coast...esp given that this could be a large extratropical cyclone with a windfield more expansive than a typical ts/weak hurricane.

[ocala]

This from the 10 AM Public:
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph...95
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so and Ida could approach hurricane
strength on Sunday. Some weakening is expected after Ida enters
the Gulf of Mexico.

The way this thing ramped up this morning I'm surprised they think a cane by Sunday. Being kind of conservative I think.

[ericinmia]

The NHC has always been VERY reluctant to jump on an intensity bandwagon, but instead move slowly in one direction or another.

I have seen them slowly ramp up speed on rapidly intensifying systems, and also keep storms alive well after they should have been downgraded. This may be one of those cases...

They had the storm originally as barely a tropical storm today... and we are looking at possibly hitting cat2 by this evening at the current rates of intesification....

So they are nudging their foreacast slowly in the direction of what Ida is doing....... slowly.

[Evil Jeremy]

This from the 10 AM Public:
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph...95
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so and Ida could approach hurricane
strength on Sunday. Some weakening is expected after Ida enters
the Gulf of Mexico.

The way this thing ramped up this morning I'm surprised they think a cane by Sunday. Being kind of conservative I think.

Actually, the NHC does not forecast a hurricane. It could be because they think it might be a hurricane in between their intensity forecast points, but they are not officially forecasting this to become a hurricane at all, just a borderline TS/Hurricane.

[drezee]

I just don't get it. This is not a NHC bash! They have seen this before:
1. An expanding deep uniform anvil canopy
2. Outflow feathers on the SW side in the face of the possible shear...
3. TCHP in the stratosphere in virgin waters (not traveresed by hurricane previously this year)
4. Two outflow jets
5. And a partridge in a pear tree

If the current trend continues, this thing is going Cane and not just minimal!!

[IvanSurvivor]

Just heard on Weather Channel...surf's gonna be way up from LA to Fl Panhandle! Was just at Pensacola Beach yesterday for lunch...the water is cold and beautiful!