ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#1721 Postby lonelymike » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:14 pm

JB and Derek......please :roll:
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon

#1722 Postby littlevince » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:15 pm

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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon

#1723 Postby RattleMan » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:16 pm

Ob 23

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
16:49:00z   17°56'N   84°26'W   842.8 hPa   1534m   1005.6 hPa   16.4°C   15.4°C   307° @ 31kt     32kt   34kt   1mm   OK
16:49:30z   17°55'N   84°27'W   843.0 hPa   1532m   1005.7 hPa   16.4°C   15.1°C   310° @ 28kt     29kt   34kt   1mm   OK
16:50:00z   17°54'N   84°28'W   842.9 hPa   1535m   1005.8 hPa   16.5°C   14.9°C   316° @ 27kt     28kt   31kt   2mm   OK
16:50:30z   17°53'N   84°29'W   843.0 hPa   1535m   1005.5 hPa   17.5°C   14.7°C   310° @ 31kt     31kt   31kt   1mm   OK
16:51:00z   17°52'N   84°31'W   843.0 hPa   1536m   1005.8 hPa   17.6°C   14.6°C   310° @ 31kt     31kt   30kt   3mm   OK
16:51:30z   17°51'N   84°32'W   842.9 hPa   1541m   1005.9 hPa   17.8°C   14.6°C   306° @ 28kt     29kt   30kt   1mm   OK
16:52:00z   17°50'N   84°33'W   843.0 hPa   1541m   1006.0 hPa   17.8°C   14.7°C   306° @ 26kt     27kt   28kt   2mm   OK
16:52:30z   17°49'N   84°34'W   843.1 hPa   1541m   1005.9 hPa   18.1°C   14.7°C   303° @ 25kt     26kt   30kt   1mm   OK
16:53:00z   17°48'N   84°36'W   842.6 hPa   1547m   1006.2 hPa   17.9°C   14.8°C   302° @ 26kt     26kt   29kt   1mm   OK
16:53:30z   17°47'N   84°37'W   842.9 hPa   1546m   1006.1 hPa   18.5°C   14.8°C   299° @ 27kt     27kt   30kt   0mm   OK
16:54:00z   17°46'N   84°38'W   842.9 hPa   1547m   1006.1 hPa   18.5°C   14.9°C   302° @ 27kt     28kt   29kt   1mm   OK
16:54:30z   17°44'N   84°39'W   843.0 hPa   1547m   1006.4 hPa   18°C   14.9°C   306° @ 27kt     27kt   28kt   0mm   OK
16:55:00z   17°43'N   84°40'W   842.9 hPa   1549m   1006.7 hPa   18°C   15°C   305° @ 25kt     26kt   26kt   2mm   OK
16:55:30z   17°42'N   84°42'W   843.2 hPa   1546m   1006.9 hPa   17.8°C   15°C   307° @ 25kt     25kt   27kt   2mm   OK
16:56:00z   17°41'N   84°43'W   842.9 hPa   1552m   1006.9 hPa   17.5°C   15°C   310° @ 25kt     27kt   24kt   3mm   OK
16:56:30z   17°40'N   84°44'W   842.9 hPa   1551m   1007.3 hPa   17.5°C   14.9°C   312° @ 26kt     27kt   24kt   2mm   OK
16:57:00z   17°39'N   84°45'W   843.1 hPa   1551m   1007.3 hPa   17.5°C   14.8°C   312° @ 27kt     27kt   26kt   1mm   OK
16:57:30z   17°38'N   84°47'W   842.9 hPa   1553m   1007.5 hPa   17.5°C   14.8°C   306° @ 26kt     27kt   25kt   1mm   OK
16:58:00z   17°37'N   84°48'W   843.0 hPa   1554m   1007.5 hPa   17.5°C   14.7°C   301° @ 26kt     26kt   22kt   3mm   OK
16:58:30z   17°36'N   84°49'W   843.1 hPa   1554m   1007.8 hPa   17.1°C   14.7°C   303° @ 25kt     26kt   23kt   2mm   OK

Max:   17°56'N   84°49'W   843.2 hPa   1554m   1007.8 hPa   18.5°C   15.4°C   31kt   32kt   34kt   3mm   
Min:   17°36'N   84°26'W   842.6 hPa   1532m   1005.5 hPa   16.4°C   14.6°C   25kt   25kt   22kt   0mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   843 hPa   1545m   1006.4 hPa   17.6°C   14.9°C   27kt   28kt   28kt   2mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   


Ob 24

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
16:59:00z   17°35'N   84°50'W   843.0 hPa   1553m   1007.9 hPa   17°C   14.6°C   307° @ 24kt     25kt   22kt   1mm   OK
16:59:30z   17°34'N   84°52'W   842.9 hPa   1557m   1008.3 hPa   16.7°C   14.6°C   310° @ 22kt     23kt   23kt   1mm   OK
17:00:00z   17°33'N   84°53'W   843.1 hPa   1556m   1008.7 hPa   16.5°C   14.5°C   312° @ 22kt     22kt   22kt   1mm   OK
17:00:30z   17°31'N   84°54'W   843.2 hPa   1556m   1008.8 hPa   16.5°C   14.3°C   314° @ 22kt     22kt   22kt   1mm   OK
17:01:00z   17°30'N   84°55'W   842.7 hPa   1561m   1008.9 hPa   16.2°C   14.2°C   313° @ 23kt     24kt   22kt   1mm   OK
17:01:30z   17°29'N   84°57'W   843.2 hPa   1557m   1009.1 hPa   16.3°C   14.1°C   308° @ 23kt     23kt   20kt   1mm   OK
17:02:00z   17°28'N   84°58'W   842.9 hPa   1560m   1009.2 hPa   15.8°C   14°C   307° @ 21kt     22kt   22kt   1mm   OK
17:02:30z   17°27'N   84°59'W   843.0 hPa   1558m   1009.3 hPa   15.6°C   13.9°C   307° @ 21kt     21kt   20kt   2mm   OK
17:03:00z   17°26'N   85°00'W   843.2 hPa   1558m   1009.3 hPa   16°C   13.8°C   305° @ 19kt     20kt   21kt   1mm   OK
17:03:30z   17°25'N   85°02'W   842.9 hPa   1559m   1009.3 hPa   16°C   13.6°C   307° @ 19kt     20kt   23kt   0mm   OK
17:04:00z   17°24'N   85°03'W   843.0 hPa   1560m   1009.2 hPa   16.2°C   13.5°C   302° @ 19kt     20kt   25kt   0mm   OK
17:04:30z   17°23'N   85°04'W   842.5 hPa   1564m   1009.1 hPa   16.2°C   13.4°C   301° @ 18kt     19kt   21kt   2mm   OK
17:05:00z   17°22'N   85°05'W   843.0 hPa   1558m   1008.8 hPa   16.7°C   13.3°C   305° @ 18kt     18kt   20kt   2mm   OK
17:05:30z   17°20'N   85°07'W   842.9 hPa   1560m   1008.6 hPa   17°C   13.3°C   308° @ 18kt     18kt   23kt   0mm   OK
17:06:00z   17°19'N   85°08'W   843.0 hPa   1560m   1009.0 hPa   16.5°C   13.4°C   306° @ 18kt     18kt   19kt   2mm   OK
17:06:30z   17°18'N   85°09'W   842.9 hPa   1561m   1009.0 hPa   16.5°C   13.5°C   308° @ 17kt     17kt   21kt   0mm   OK
17:07:00z   17°17'N   85°10'W   843.0 hPa   1560m   1009.3 hPa   16.3°C   13.6°C   307° @ 17kt     17kt   25kt   0mm   OK
17:07:30z   17°16'N   85°12'W   843.0 hPa   1562m   1009.1 hPa   16.5°C   13.6°C   313° @ 18kt     19kt   26kt   0mm   OK
17:08:00z   17°15'N   85°13'W   842.8 hPa   1564m   1009.3 hPa   16.5°C   13.7°C   314° @ 20kt     20kt   24kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
17:08:30z   17°14'N   85°14'W   843.2 hPa   1563m   1009.4 hPa   16.1°C   13.7°C   316° @ 19kt     20kt   25kt   0mm   ?:SFMR

Max:   17°35'N   85°14'W   843.2 hPa   1564m   1009.4 hPa   17°C   14.6°C   24kt   25kt   26kt   2mm   
Min:   17°14'N   84°50'W   842.5 hPa   1553m   1007.9 hPa   15.6°C   13.3°C   17kt   17kt   19kt   0mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   843 hPa   1559m   1009 hPa   16.4°C   13.8°C   20kt   20kt   22kt   1mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   
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#1724 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:17 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 071705
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 07/16:36:20Z
B. 18 deg 25 min N
084 deg 01 min W
C. 850 mb 1355 m
D. 56 kt
E. 056 deg 21 nm
F. 144 deg 65 kt
G. 055 deg 24 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 25 C / 1521 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF306 0211A IDA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 65 KT NE QUAD 16:28:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 67 KT SW QUAD 16:41:10Z
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN
;
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1725 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:18 pm

Vortex msg has the center right on 84W, still. Not moving very much to the west. Center is on the NE side of heavier convection. I do like the idea of the 12Z GFS in accelerating it northward Monday and inland into the FL panhandle as a sheared storm that's transitioning to ET. But I wouldn't buy the SE movement back over the Gulf. If it gets embedded in that jet core then it's gone.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#1726 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:20 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
lonelymike wrote:What's to worry about? All the professional mets I've heard expects a weak and sheared tropical storm. Not an Ivan for sure.


I would suggest reading Derek's forecast, 70kts landfalling in the Pensacola area, JB is also predicting hurricane conditions for the Panhandle are possible.

Why things can change, there is plenty of reason to be cautious.


I think a cane landfall is possible along the Panhandle if Ida becomes a modest Cat 1 or 2 in the next 48 hours then accelerates quickly to the north and the cooler SST along coast may not be enough to slow Ida down before landfall. Possible, but not likely IMO.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#1727 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:20 pm

lonelymike wrote:JB and Derek......please :roll:


JB wouldn't be high ranking on AccuWeather if he wasn't professional, and Derek wouldn't have his "Pro-Met" ranking here if he was not a professional.
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#1728 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:21 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 071716
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 25 20091107
170900 1714N 08514W 8432 01563 0095 +160 +138 313017 019 026 000 03
170930 1712N 08517W 8430 01562 0096 +160 +137 315016 017 024 000 03
171000 1710N 08518W 8429 01566 0097 +162 +137 316015 016 023 000 03
171030 1709N 08519W 8429 01567 0095 +163 +136 318014 015 026 000 00
171100 1708N 08521W 8428 01566 0098 +160 +136 316014 015 025 000 03
171130 1707N 08522W 8433 01564 0100 +160 +136 313014 015 021 001 03
171200 1706N 08521W 8425 01571 0101 +160 +137 305013 013 999 999 03
171230 1706N 08520W 8433 01563 0099 +160 +138 303013 013 023 000 03
171300 1706N 08518W 8429 01567 0098 +160 +138 304012 013 022 002 00
171330 1706N 08516W 8430 01562 0095 +163 +137 301012 012 019 002 00
171400 1706N 08514W 8430 01562 0096 +160 +136 294013 014 018 001 00
171430 1707N 08513W 8429 01563 0094 +161 +135 291015 015 019 000 00
171500 1707N 08511W 8429 01561 0093 +165 +134 287015 016 015 001 00
171530 1707N 08509W 8432 01559 0092 +163 +134 287015 016 017 001 00
171600 1707N 08507W 8429 01563 0091 +165 +133 285016 016 014 002 00
171630 1707N 08505W 8430 01561 0092 +165 +133 290016 016 016 002 00
171700 1707N 08503W 8429 01563 0091 +166 +134 294015 015 022 003 00
171730 1707N 08501W 8429 01563 0092 +165 +133 287014 014 025 002 00
171800 1708N 08500W 8430 01561 0092 +165 +133 280014 015 025 003 00
171830 1708N 08458W 8429 01562 0092 +167 +133 273015 015 026 001 00
$$
;
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#1729 Postby Frank2 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:21 pm

Could be a Kate (1985) type of situation - we'll see, though Kate had a much more favorable environment to deal with when it moved into the Gulf - almost an Indian Summer pattern, from what I recall (and it was not an El Nino year)...

Frank

P.S. Very breezy here in South Florida at this time, so that's certain proof of the squeeze between the high to the northeast and the low to the southwest...
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#1730 Postby KWT » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:21 pm

To be honest WxmaN57 I never really thought there was going to be much NW motion but I have to admit I expected a little more by now...west Cuba also needs to watch this closely.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#1731 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:21 pm

12 Canadian..OUCH!

Image
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Re: Re:

#1732 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:23 pm

Blown_away wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
Blown_away wrote:
Well said Gator, that seems the most obvious solution for this time of year. IMO, the SST's really don't support anything more than a TS in the NGOM. That being said, 40+ mph winds in a condo on the beach or in a mobile home can be scary and the water piles up quickly especially in the Big Bend area.


Well, important things to remember are such: 1, it likely won't get that far north, what with the frontal zone charging southward by that point. Secondly, even if it does go that far north, it will be mostly extraropical by then, at which point the roughest part of the storm will be displaced well north and west of the center, especially with such a strong high pressure system coming in from behind the front. Wouldn't be surprised to see the entire northern Gulf coast get a prolonged period 40-50kt gusts, if not sustained winds, out of this. Because by that point, warm waters won't even play a role in its strength.


I agree, I was implying w/ the synoptic setup there would be high winds w/o a landfall TS. I'm seeing more of a west component w/ Ida recently and IMO the farther W Ida goes from the NHC track it will be less likely to make it to the Panhandle before being swept NE or ENE.



The last recon fix has it at 84w.. still moning due north
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon

#1733 Postby RattleMan » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:23 pm

Ob 25

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
17:09:00z   17°14'N   85°14'W   843.2 hPa   1563m   1009.5 hPa   16°C   13.8°C   313° @ 17kt     19kt   26kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
17:09:30z   17°12'N   85°17'W   843.0 hPa   1562m   1009.6 hPa   16°C   13.7°C   315° @ 16kt     17kt   24kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
17:10:00z   17°10'N   85°18'W   842.9 hPa   1566m   1009.7 hPa   16.2°C   13.7°C   316° @ 15kt     16kt   23kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
17:10:30z   17°09'N   85°19'W   842.9 hPa   1567m   1009.5 hPa   16.3°C   13.6°C   318° @ 14kt     15kt   26kt   0mm   OK
17:11:00z   17°08'N   85°21'W   842.8 hPa   1566m   1009.8 hPa   16°C   13.6°C   316° @ 14kt     15kt   25kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
17:11:30z   17°07'N   85°22'W   843.3 hPa   1564m   1010.0 hPa   16°C   13.6°C   313° @ 14kt     15kt   21kt   1mm   ?:SFMR
17:12:00z   17°06'N   85°21'W   842.5 hPa   1571m   1010.1 hPa   16°C   13.7°C   305° @ 13kt     13kt   -----   -----   ?:SFMR
17:12:30z   17°06'N   85°20'W   843.3 hPa   1563m   1009.9 hPa   16°C   13.8°C   303° @ 13kt     13kt   23kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
17:13:00z   17°06'N   85°18'W   842.9 hPa   1567m   1009.8 hPa   16°C   13.8°C   304° @ 12kt     13kt   22kt   2mm   OK
17:13:30z   17°06'N   85°16'W   843.0 hPa   1562m   1009.5 hPa   16.3°C   13.7°C   301° @ 12kt     12kt   19kt   2mm   OK
17:14:00z   17°06'N   85°14'W   843.0 hPa   1562m   1009.6 hPa   16°C   13.6°C   294° @ 13kt     14kt   18kt   1mm   OK
17:14:30z   17°07'N   85°13'W   842.9 hPa   1563m   1009.4 hPa   16.1°C   13.5°C   291° @ 15kt     15kt   19kt   0mm   OK
17:15:00z   17°07'N   85°11'W   842.9 hPa   1561m   1009.3 hPa   16.5°C   13.4°C   287° @ 15kt     16kt   15kt   1mm   OK
17:15:30z   17°07'N   85°09'W   843.2 hPa   1559m   1009.2 hPa   16.3°C   13.4°C   287° @ 15kt     16kt   17kt   1mm   OK
17:16:00z   17°07'N   85°07'W   842.9 hPa   1563m   1009.1 hPa   16.5°C   13.3°C   285° @ 16kt     16kt   14kt   2mm   OK
17:16:30z   17°07'N   85°05'W   843.0 hPa   1561m   1009.2 hPa   16.5°C   13.3°C   290° @ 16kt     16kt   16kt   2mm   OK
17:17:00z   17°07'N   85°03'W   842.9 hPa   1563m   1009.1 hPa   16.6°C   13.4°C   294° @ 15kt     15kt   22kt   3mm   OK
17:17:30z   17°07'N   85°01'W   842.9 hPa   1563m   1009.2 hPa   16.5°C   13.3°C   287° @ 14kt     14kt   25kt   2mm   OK
17:18:00z   17°08'N   85°00'W   843.0 hPa   1561m   1009.2 hPa   16.5°C   13.3°C   280° @ 14kt     15kt   25kt   3mm   OK
17:18:30z   17°08'N   84°58'W   842.9 hPa   1562m   1009.2 hPa   16.7°C   13.3°C   273° @ 15kt     15kt   26kt   1mm   OK

Max:   17°14'N   85°22'W   843.3 hPa   1571m   1010.1 hPa   16.7°C   13.8°C   17kt   19kt   26kt   3mm   
Min:   17°06'N   84°58'W   842.5 hPa   1559m   1009.1 hPa   16°C   13.3°C   12kt   12kt   14kt   0mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   843 hPa   1563m   1009.5 hPa   16.3°C   13.5°C   14kt   15kt   21kt   1mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   
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Blown Away
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Re:

#1734 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:24 pm

Frank2 wrote:Could be a Kate (1985) type of situation - we'll see, though Kate had a much more favorable environment to deal with when it moved into the Gulf - almost an Indian Summer pattern, from what I recall (and it was not an El Nino year)...

Frank

P.S. Very breezy here in South Florida at this time, so that's certain proof of the squeeze between the high to the northeast and the low to the southwest...


Yep, the squeeze is bringing wonderful breezy weather to Hobe Sound, just loving it!!!
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon

#1735 Postby littlevince » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:25 pm

Image
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Maybe cat 4 already???

#1736 Postby bdabye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:26 pm

Check out the latest conditions on Cayman Brac..........Hmmm
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCB.html
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#1737 Postby lonelymike » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:27 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
lonelymike wrote:JB and Derek......please :roll:


JB wouldn't be high ranking on AccuWeather if he wasn't professional, and Derek wouldn't have his "Pro-Met" ranking here if he was not a professional.



True no disrespect to them but they are in the minority of meterologoists at this time.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#1738 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:27 pm

Next advisory shortly.I say they will bump to 60kts.
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Re: Maybe cat 4 already???

#1739 Postby Blown Away » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:27 pm

:D
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#1740 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:28 pm

looks like it is slowing down and drifting north now....quite interesting.
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