ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[artist]

I happen to be in Playa Del Carmen, MX for a friend's wedding currently. Have limited internet access so getting information in bits. Rain has picked up yesterday and we're getting showers with some 20-30mph gusts in them about once an hour. Doesn't seem to be much concern right now, but might get quite wild around here tomorrow, especially if the current strengthening trend and forecast track holds. Will update conditions when I can.

take care, have fun and will look forward to your updates.

[Aric Dunn]

That position is toward the lower left of that X on my satellite image. Just a hair west of 84W now.

Think we should wait for the next pass.. to much cloud debris but I dont see much westward components ...

[gatorcane]

Recall the GFS a day or so ago had Ida moving N to NNE to near the Isle of Youth just south of the Western tip of Cuba and slowing down in the process......of course now the GFS is showing a completely different solution, but you have to wonder what it was seeing and maybe there Ida will move slower in the Caribbean then some of these models are showing currently.

The models have had a tough time with the speed of Ida, in fact most models were originally showing Ida emerging from Honduras this morning...we know that happened much quicker. How long it takes to get out of the NW Caribbean would have some implications on the future path of Ida in the long-term.

[littlevince]

[shortwave]

love this loop, takes a bit to load...still a bit hard to see a tight defined center.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... st_full+12

[Aric Dunn]

looks like when they shoot NW for another pass, they might be passing through the deepest convection...and I think they'll find readings the highest there.

well technically if its moving north than they are about to fly through the right front quad..

[cycloneye]

OB 30

000
URNT15 KNHC 071807
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 30 20091107
175900 1728N 08251W 8431 01558 0090 +165 +128 199027 027 026 001 00
175930 1729N 08252W 8429 01562 0089 +169 +127 201025 026 026 002 00
180000 1731N 08254W 8428 01562 0090 +165 +127 198024 025 027 003 00
180030 1732N 08255W 8430 01561 0091 +165 +128 200023 024 028 002 00
180100 1733N 08256W 8430 01559 0092 +160 +129 195022 023 028 002 00
180130 1734N 08258W 8432 01557 0093 +160 +131 194025 025 027 003 00
180200 1736N 08259W 8429 01560 0090 +163 +131 192024 024 027 003 00
180230 1737N 08300W 8429 01561 0086 +169 +131 195022 022 029 003 00
180300 1738N 08301W 8432 01557 0084 +170 +132 195020 020 029 003 00
180330 1739N 08303W 8428 01560 0085 +170 +132 191021 022 030 002 00
180400 1741N 08304W 8431 01555 0084 +169 +133 189023 023 030 002 00
180430 1742N 08305W 8430 01556 0083 +170 +133 195023 024 032 001 00
180500 1743N 08307W 8426 01560 0081 +171 +133 194025 025 030 003 00
180530 1744N 08308W 8432 01554 0080 +175 +134 199025 026 030 004 00
180600 1746N 08309W 8429 01556 0081 +170 +135 200026 026 032 003 00
180630 1747N 08310W 8431 01553 0079 +171 +136 205025 026 034 002 00
180700 1748N 08312W 8430 01553 0081 +167 +137 207026 028 035 000 03
180730 1749N 08313W 8429 01553 0081 +166 +137 203025 026 035 000 03
180800 1750N 08314W 8432 01547 0089 +147 +136 195030 032 037 010 00
180830 1752N 08316W 8416 01565 0083 +157 +133 191029 029 041 008 00

[Blown Away]

Recall the GFS a day or so ago had Ida moving N to NNE to near the Isle of Youth just south of the Western tip of Cuba and slowing down in the process......of course now the GFS is showing a completely different solution, but you have to wonder what it was seeing and maybe there Ida will move slower in the Caribbean then some of these models are showing currently.

The models have had a tough time with the speed of Ida, in fact most models were originally showing Ida emerging from Honduras this morning...we know that happened much quicker. How long it takes to get out of the NW Caribbean would have some implications on the future path of Ida in the long-term.

I agree, I have to remember it's November and there have been some crazy tracks in November, but it is difficult to accept this big giant loop that some models are showing.

[Aric Dunn]

Recall the GFS a day or so ago had Ida moving N to NNE to near the Isle of Youth just south of the Western tip of Cuba and slowing down in the process......of course now the GFS is showing a completely different solution, but you have to wonder what it was seeing and maybe there Ida will move slower in the Caribbean then some of these models are showing currently.

The models have had a tough time with the speed of Ida, in fact most models were originally showing Ida emerging from Honduras this morning...we know that happened much quicker. How long it takes to get out of the NW Caribbean would have some implications on the future path of Ida in the long-term.

here is the wrinkle except for the gfdl and hwrf. none of the other models had a hurricane or anything remotely close to one except the gfdl and hwrf. with that said those models are going to completely change by the 00z run as a stronger system will change not only the track but the idea of transition since a full fledged hurricane will take more time vs. a weak tropical storm..

[littlevince]

[gatorcane]

Aric what are your thoughts on a strong system vs weak system as far as track?

[Bocadude85]

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

That sounds about right.. looks like they are going to have to up it in there forecast to a hurricane now at the 4pm...

Not a big deal but did want to point it out.. at the 4am advisory she was moving North or 350 degrees.. now she is moving N or 360 degrees

[xironman]

I love when they do rapid fire satellite images just watch the full 30 images http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

full zoom .. just give a whole new perspective on the evolution of the cloud structure..

Looks like it is filling in the bare areas, once that happens maybe it can get organized. Not bad considering it was a naked swirl over land 24 hrs ago.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric what are your thoughts on a strong system vs weak system as far as track?

A stronger deeper system should have a much more Northerly or even NNE track and at a slightly faster speed. This could potentially allow the trough to pick it up rather than this stalling and transitioning idea. its possible of a irene track or even as far north as the big bend area of florida. I should probably track through the Yucatan channel or over western cuba than start to bend NNE, how far north it gets and when it gets there is the question, if its faster the trough should pick it up if its slower than it could get left behind. but given the trend over the last few days of it being faster, I am leaning towards the trough picking it up.. the other wrinkle is the low in the BOC not sure what that will do yet.

[cycloneye]

HWRF has a cat 4 in the central GOM.

[littlevince]

[gatorcane]

thanks Aric, could that low in the BOC somehow weaken the ridge that is supposed to turn Ida NW into the Central GOM?

Could the models not be handling the BOC low properly? Ida appears to be slowing to a crawl in the NW Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

She has an eye

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET does a big loop after making landfall at panhandle.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[hurricanefloyd5]

this is something for florida to watch because tropical or not I could see high winds from this system and some tornados too and heavy rains. I bet thats what the models are showing either way right? What are the models show as of now for central florida in the terms of how strong my winds could get?