ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

thanks Aric, could that low in the BOC somehow weaken the ridge that is supposed to turn Ida NW into the Central GOM?

Could the models not be handling the BOC low properly?

the models are not handling anything well right now.. the BOC is not getting any stronger really and if IDa continues to strengthen then the BOC low will have less of an effect on IDA. The trough should begin to move both of them and depending on IDA strength and the strength of that low will depend on if they merge and we get this transitioning system or not.

[cycloneye]

OB 31

URNT15 KNHC 071817
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 31 20091107
180900 1753N 08317W 8427 01550 0081 +161 +127 200029 029 034 000 00
180930 1754N 08318W 8429 01549 0077 +167 +124 200028 029 034 000 03
181000 1756N 08319W 8430 01547 0077 +164 +124 205028 029 034 000 03
181030 1757N 08321W 8430 01547 0074 +167 +125 201030 030 035 000 03
181100 1758N 08322W 8429 01545 0070 +169 +126 200031 031 035 000 03
181130 1759N 08323W 8432 01543 0070 +168 +129 199031 032 034 000 03
181200 1800N 08325W 8428 01545 0069 +168 +130 202030 031 999 999 03
181230 1802N 08326W 8430 01542 0067 +170 +131 201031 032 036 000 03
181300 1803N 08327W 8429 01541 0065 +173 +133 204034 036 037 000 03
181330 1804N 08328W 8432 01537 0062 +173 +133 206036 036 037 000 03
181400 1805N 08330W 8430 01538 0063 +171 +134 204033 034 037 000 00
181430 1807N 08331W 8428 01542 0063 +171 +134 207033 033 034 003 00
181500 1808N 08332W 8429 01540 0064 +164 +136 210036 037 035 002 00
181530 1809N 08334W 8423 01549 0064 +165 +135 203034 035 033 006 00
181600 1810N 08335W 8430 01537 0062 +168 +134 209037 038 034 005 00
181630 1812N 08336W 8432 01534 0062 +165 +132 212038 038 037 003 00
181700 1813N 08337W 8431 01534 0061 +163 +131 215036 037 037 005 00
181730 1814N 08339W 8428 01532 0059 +164 +129 219035 035 037 006 00
181800 1815N 08340W 8429 01527 0054 +162 +127 218037 039 039 006 00
181830 1816N 08341W 8427 01527 0048 +166 +125 215039 039 038 006 00

[KWT]

Ita really interesting how these models are still having monster systems even in the central-north GOM but I'd be shocked if we saw anything as strong as HWRF has up there.

[RattleMan]

32

URNT15 KNHC 071827
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 32 20091107
181900 1818N 08342W 8429 01521 0040 +170 +122 209040 042 039 004 00
181930 1819N 08344W 8429 01518 0037 +169 +122 209044 044 041 003 00
182000 1820N 08345W 8429 01514 0036 +171 +122 215046 048 042 004 00
182030 1821N 08346W 8428 01509 0022 +180 +124 215048 050 045 003 00
182100 1822N 08347W 8438 01495 0016 +184 +127 220051 052 046 004 00
182130 1823N 08349W 8426 01498 0005 +186 +131 218052 053 047 002 00
182200 1825N 08350W 8435 01488 0003 +187 +135 221055 057 048 003 00
182230 1826N 08351W 8429 01489 9998 +183 +139 223054 055 048 003 00
182300 1827N 08352W 8428 01485 9989 +188 +142 216058 062 048 003 00
182330 1828N 08353W 8428 01484 9983 +193 +145 215060 061 048 003 00
182400 1829N 08355W 8427 01478 9968 +211 +148 222061 062 039 002 00
182430 1831N 08356W 8425 01473 9954 +221 +151 238053 055 040 004 00
182500 1832N 08357W 8431 01461 9932 +248 +156 240058 060 037 002 03
182530 1833N 08358W 8434 01451 9924 +247 +162 240060 062 037 003 00
182600 1834N 08359W 8433 01448 9918 +246 +168 238061 062 037 001 00
182630 1836N 08359W 8429 01447 9909 +252 +173 241062 063 037 002 03
182700 1838N 08400W 8434 01430 9899 +246 +179 238052 058 037 003 00
182730 1839N 08400W 8428 01426 9892 +239 +184 226043 045 034 003 00
182800 1841N 08400W 8424 01422 9888 +228 +187 211038 040 033 002 00
182830 1843N 08401W 8433 01410 9884 +227 +188 207030 033 034 003 00
$$
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Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
18:19:00z   18°18'N   83°42'W   842.9 hPa   1521m   1004.0 hPa   17°C   12.2°C   209° @ 40kt     42kt   39kt   4mm   OK
18:19:30z   18°19'N   83°44'W   842.9 hPa   1518m   1003.7 hPa   16.9°C   12.2°C   209° @ 44kt     44kt   41kt   3mm   OK
18:20:00z   18°20'N   83°45'W   842.9 hPa   1514m   1003.6 hPa   17.1°C   12.2°C   215° @ 46kt     48kt   42kt   4mm   OK
18:20:30z   18°21'N   83°46'W   842.8 hPa   1509m   1002.2 hPa   18°C   12.4°C   215° @ 48kt     50kt   45kt   3mm   OK
18:21:00z   18°22'N   83°47'W   843.8 hPa   1495m   1001.6 hPa   18.4°C   12.7°C   220° @ 51kt     52kt   46kt   4mm   OK
18:21:30z   18°23'N   83°49'W   842.6 hPa   1498m   1000.5 hPa   18.6°C   13.1°C   218° @ 52kt     53kt   47kt   2mm   OK
18:22:00z   18°25'N   83°50'W   843.5 hPa   1488m   1000.3 hPa   18.7°C   13.5°C   221° @ 55kt     57kt   48kt   3mm   OK
18:22:30z   18°26'N   83°51'W   842.9 hPa   1489m   999.8 hPa   18.3°C   13.9°C   223° @ 54kt     55kt   48kt   3mm   OK
18:23:00z   18°27'N   83°52'W   842.8 hPa   1485m   998.9 hPa   18.8°C   14.2°C   216° @ 58kt     62kt   48kt   3mm   OK
18:23:30z   18°28'N   83°53'W   842.8 hPa   1484m   998.3 hPa   19.3°C   14.5°C   215° @ 60kt     61kt   48kt   3mm   OK
18:24:00z   18°29'N   83°55'W   842.7 hPa   1478m   996.8 hPa   21.1°C   14.8°C   222° @ 61kt     62kt   39kt   2mm   OK
18:24:30z   18°31'N   83°56'W   842.5 hPa   1473m   995.4 hPa   22.1°C   15.1°C   238° @ 53kt     55kt   40kt   4mm   OK
18:25:00z   18°32'N   83°57'W   843.1 hPa   1461m   993.2 hPa   24.8°C   15.6°C   240° @ 58kt     60kt   37kt   2mm   ?:SFMR
18:25:30z   18°33'N   83°58'W   843.4 hPa   1451m   992.4 hPa   24.7°C   16.2°C   240° @ 60kt     62kt   37kt   3mm   OK
18:26:00z   18°34'N   83°59'W   843.3 hPa   1448m   991.8 hPa   24.6°C   16.8°C   238° @ 61kt     62kt   37kt   1mm   OK
18:26:30z   18°36'N   83°59'W   842.9 hPa   1447m   990.9 hPa   25.2°C   17.3°C   241° @ 62kt     63kt   37kt   2mm   ?:SFMR
18:27:00z   18°38'N   84°00'W   843.4 hPa   1430m   989.9 hPa   24.6°C   17.9°C   238° @ 52kt     58kt   37kt   3mm   OK
18:27:30z   18°39'N   84°00'W   842.8 hPa   1426m   989.2 hPa   23.9°C   18.4°C   226° @ 43kt     45kt   34kt   3mm   OK
18:28:00z   18°41'N   84°00'W   842.4 hPa   1422m   988.8 hPa   22.8°C   18.7°C   211° @ 38kt     40kt   33kt   2mm   OK
18:28:30z   18°43'N   84°01'W   843.3 hPa   1410m   988.4 hPa   22.7°C   18.8°C   207° @ 30kt     33kt   34kt   3mm   OK

Max:   18°43'N   84°01'W   843.8 hPa   1521m   1004 hPa   25.2°C   18.8°C   62kt   63kt   48kt   4mm   
Min:   18°18'N   83°42'W   842.4 hPa   1410m   988.4 hPa   16.9°C   12.2°C   30kt   33kt   33kt   1mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   843 hPa   1472m   996.5 hPa   20.9°C   15°C   51kt   53kt   41kt   3mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   


[cycloneye]

988 mbs lowest pressure at second pass

[KWT]

Yep 70mph as others have noted looks about right, pretty interesting system this one is, really think this one is heading for hurricane status soon, may have a hard time getting above 80kts however IMO, remins me a lot of Irene at the moment.

[hurricanefloyd5]

thanks Aric, could that low in the BOC somehow weaken the ridge that is supposed to turn Ida NW into the Central GOM?

Could the models not be handling the BOC low properly?

the models are not handling anything well right now.. the BOC is not getting any stronger really and if IDa continues to strengthen then the BOC low will have less of an effect on IDA. The trough should begin to move both of them and depending on IDA strength and the strength of that low will depend on if they merge and we get this transitioning system or not.

How strong do you see her going aric a possible cat.2?

[WindRunner]

Just wanted to comment that it seems like the SFMR might be having a slight problem in that most recent set of HDOB data...either that, or there's a massive low-level inversion in the storm that's preventing the stronger winds from mixing down, and that's quite unlikely.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure under 990 now.. recon almost to center with winds of 33kts and 988 pressure.. so center fix should come back with around 986 987 or so ..

[KWT]

Yep Aric looks like its about 987-988mbs IMO, got to expect this one will be a hurricane within the next 12hrs again but we shall see.

[WindRunner]

She has an eye

Ummm, no. The white is the next colder cloud tops after the yellow color, not a clear spot. Just a very tall/cold thunderstorm, not an eye.

[Ivanhater]

[brunota2003]

Just wanted to comment that it seems like the SFMR might be having a slight problem in that most recent set of HDOB data...either that, or there's a massive low-level inversion in the storm that's preventing the stronger winds from mixing down, and that's quite unlikely.

Considering earlier the winds were in the 50's on the SFMR. Also, pressure is down into the 988's right now (still away from the center)

[hurricanefloyd5]

it still looks to be moving northward still with a wobble to the nnw just a bit.

[PTrackerLA]

We're about to have a hurricane on our hands it seems. I'm worried about a strong extratropical storm impacting the gulf coast, could be a significant wind and flooding event.

[Aric Dunn]

thanks Aric, could that low in the BOC somehow weaken the ridge that is supposed to turn Ida NW into the Central GOM?

Could the models not be handling the BOC low properly?

the models are not handling anything well right now.. the BOC is not getting any stronger really and if IDa continues to strengthen then the BOC low will have less of an effect on IDA. The trough should begin to move both of them and depending on IDA strength and the strength of that low will depend on if they merge and we get this transitioning system or not.

How strong do you see her going aric a possible cat.2?

possibly while in the carribean.. once in the gulf things get tricky and maintaining that will be hard unless its moving faster..

[Blown Away]

12Z: Ukmet, CMC, GFDL, HWRF, and GFS all swing Ida or the remains of Ida back through the Florida peninsula. These models also rapidly move the system near or onto the N Gulf Coast in about 72 hours. Ida better pick up some forward speed for those models to verify if not I think the ENE turn could happen farther S in the GOM.

[shortwave]

if the center is where the recon has located it, there seems to be some mlc to the northeast, maybe the storm is tilted

[Ivanhater]

Look at the loop, Looks like an eye to me. Could be wrong though

[gatorcane]

looks like an escape route out to the NE/ENE looking at the 00Z NAM H5 flow. Now that she is much stronger than any of the models initialize her to be you wonder. She may be "eyeing" that

She's also more north of where the NAM has the X. That H5 ridge is still over Texas/LA here and has not got to her yet. Thoughts? Obviously a weaker system wouldn't feel that weakness to the ENE. Would follow climo if she hits that weakness.