ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[littlevince]

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I believe the center is where the NHC has it positioned, but there is a some kind of spin to the ENE of that position (big circle).

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I believe the center is where the NHC has is positioned, but there is a some kind of spin to the ENE of that position (big circle).

that is just a illusion ...

[Sanibel]

Yeah, you have to be careful. A sharp eye will see the red IR area spread slightly SW in the CDO. In a system sheared from the SW that would show the center is moving with a NW component. All solved by tonight when Ida pulls up into Cancun radar.

[brunota2003]

perhaps looking to see how far north the TS force winds extend.

[Aric Dunn]

Crew is finding a broader windfield.

yeah not surprising.. on the north side with such a tight pressure gradient...

[shortwave]

Derek, whats your take on the current stucture of this system?

[KWT]

Circulation is right under the deepest convection it seems to me, the structure seems a touch more lopsided then about 6hrs ago and may have even out a touch in terms of the strengthening trend but we shall see!

[Sanibel]

Possibly because the disrupted core from land interaction hit a ridge border before it could reorganize structure.

This could delay hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

DO however have quite a bit of mid level shear kicking up now..

[hurricanefloyd5]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
434 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL AS BREEZY EAST WINDS
PUSH A MODERATE SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Aric Dunn]

perhaps looking to see how far north the TS force winds extend.

That and probably re adjusting their flight plan to account for the shift in the center..

[tolakram]

GOES Selector link for the rapid scan view.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15

[Evil Jeremy]

So this time yesterday, most of the models were pointing at the Florida west coast in 5 days. Now, some of them are showing north gulf coast landfalls in as soon as 3 days. What do you guys think on the latest model runs turning the focus to the northern gulf coast?

[WindRunner]

Nope...like, I said, flight's over. We have liftoff...

URNT15 KNHC 071906
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 36 20091107
185900 2002N 08432W 8429 01540 0071 +160 +121 087047 048 038 005 00
185930 2004N 08432W 8434 01536 0073 +160 +121 086046 047 035 005 00
190000 2005N 08432W 8425 01547 0073 +159 +121 086047 048 035 006 00
190030 2007N 08432W 8430 01544 0075 +158 +121 086047 049 034 005 03
190100 2008N 08433W 8428 01547 0077 +158 +122 082047 048 999 999 03
190130 2008N 08435W 8400 01572 0072 +161 +123 082046 047 036 005 03
190200 2008N 08437W 8115 01870 0071 +146 +123 079044 045 999 999 03
190230 2008N 08439W 7775 02231 0066 +127 +122 077041 044 999 999 03
190300 2008N 08441W 7419 02624 0055 +112 +112 075034 038 999 999 03
190330 2008N 08443W 7073 03022 0048 +097 +097 079020 025 999 999 03
190400 2009N 08445W 6756 03411 9990 +080 +999 079018 019 999 999 05
190430 2009N 08447W 6503 03727 9990 +054 +999 080020 022 999 999 05
190500 2009N 08449W 6304 03987 9990 +036 +999 076025 025 999 999 05
190530 2009N 08451W 6079 04283 9990 +021 +999 074026 027 999 999 05
190600 2009N 08453W 5862 04554 9990 +005 +999 076024 025 999 999 05
190630 2009N 08455W 5649 04854 9990 -006 +999 084019 020 999 999 05
190700 2010N 08457W 5479 05113 0221 -017 +999 089020 021 999 999 05
190730 2010N 08459W 5299 05380 0237 -028 +999 101018 020 999 999 05
190800 2010N 08501W 5166 05582 0253 -039 +999 102021 021 999 999 05
190830 2010N 08503W 5025 05811 0268 -050 +999 099021 022 039 000 05
$$
;

Back at cruising altitude to head back to Keesler.

[jinftl]

Agree, but along the same lines, i don't think we are ever going to be talking about a landfalling hurricane with ida in the u.s.

A tropical storm watch for the Lower Keys and esp. the Dry Torutgas would not be impossible if the storm doesn't get 50-100 miles further west by tomorrow. Key West is at 81.8W. The forecast is for Ida to have 34kt winds expanding out to 150 miles to the northeast of the center by tomorrow. A track coming up 84W or 84.5W would put Key West very close to being in the sustained ts wind field.

Grand Cayman is a full 3 deg of longitude east of Ida....about 180 miles....and is in a ts warning.

key west could see a hurricane watch/warning in the next 24-36hrs. if this keeps up!!!!!!

No offense, but you should calm down. Hurricane force winds will not be effecting the keys from Ida. Even if it moves due north from where it is now, the hurricane wind field would not be big enough to effect the Keys. Oh, and it would pass through Cuba, likely getting rid of most hurricane winds.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty short mission.. oh well whens the next one..

[cycloneye]

The mision is over.Next one will be tonight with plane departing at 9:45 PM EST.

[WindRunner]

The center is being found fine by recon - there are no issues with that. They may be missing it by a mile or two, not by 60-100 miles - we're talking professionals inside the storm here, and if they find a circulation with a well-defined ~991mb low pressure associated with it, I think THAT is the storm, not a pseudo-swirl offset to the east of the deep convection, like due to some subsidence from the intense thunderstorms over the actual center.

The issue is not the little warm spot on satellite.. its with the recon data.. there is probably 2 vorts in there now. the old one with the pressure of that 988 and the one they seemed to have just did a drop in with 991. thes types of reading are very normal for multiple vorts or a center relocation..

Not really...typically reforming centers happen in systems with poorly organized convection (i.e. sporadic, randomly forming deep-layered storms) and weak circulation centers to begin with. Hence, it's rare to see center reformations in any system with central pressures lower than 1000hPa, and that's being generous. Center reformations certainly will not occur in a storm nearing hurricane strength with organized convection and a very strong low level circulation.

[cycloneye]

Next Mission tonight with plane departing at 0145Z

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A IDA
C. 08/0145Z
D. 18.7N 85.4W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT