ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[gatorcane]

One thing to say looking at this tonight:

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye -

Keep in mind that the GFDL graphic you posted shows 35 meter winds!
The highest surface winds around the time of landfall are strong category 1/borderline category 2:
ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov//pub/data/nc ... tats.short

Ok thanks for the clarification.

[Aric Dunn]

well aric if your scenario pans out, and it stays tropical hits mobile than the west coast of fl misses the majority of the storm if not all and we'll get some rain and gradient winds. I was hoping for et winds from the storm itself not just boring gradient winds as we have had many times.

well actually they are still farther west than what I think.. I was thinking Big bend area.. north of tampa.. no more west then pensecola..

[ozonepete]

Latest

Hi Hurakan, and thanks for this latest. Can you explain why those two microwave satellites (there's one just before yours) at the same frequency and time have two different images?

[Sanibel]

Hurakan's image keeps the intensity surge. I'll stick with 80mph when the hunters get there.

[Derek Ortt]

just checked the 18Z GFS, UL shear is primarily anti-cyclonic around Ida until landfall

[Aric Dunn]

Latest

Hi Hurakan, and thanks for this latest. Can you explain why those two microwave satellites (there's one just before yours) at the same frequency and time have two different images?

its the intensity used .. same frequency less power ...

[Normandy]

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

Radar shows a very nice eyewall. A new burst is starting as well. It might get pretty intense before passing near Cuba.

[jconsor]

What is significant about the GFDL is that:

1) The 18z run peaks 15 kt stronger than the 12z (97 kt vs 82 kt). The 12z run greatly underestimated Ida's strengthening this afternoon.

2) The 18z run is further north than the 12z (it reaches 30.5N latitude vs 29.7N) and now shows landfall on the FL Panhandle. This is likely due to the 18z GFDL's recognition of Ida's current northward acceleration, which the 12z GFDL missed.

3) The 12z and 18z GFDL are showing the strongest winds on the northwest (left) side of the storm, due to strong high pressure to the northwest of Ida enhancing the gradient. Normally, hurricanes have the strongest winds to the right of the track. The GFDL scenario would reduce the storm surge potential because the strongest winds are blowing from an offshore (northeast) direction

[Blown Away]

Cloud tops have warmed a little and it does appear to be moving a hair west of due north.

[Derek Ortt]

a note from the above about the GFDL, even though both the PSU and FSU sites say the GFDL winds are 35m, I THINK the winds from FSU are closer to 10m

[Sanibel]

Better symmetry in latest black IR burst. Nautilus shape in convection to east:

[jinftl]

It is going to be on the very right edge of the 'cone' before long....possibly to the east of the cone if it gets to 21N before hitting 85W. Barring a curve to the nnw or nw between now and 10pm, the short-term track would almost seem to have to be shifted right at 10pm.

On the other hand.. with that.. although completely representative of where the center is but close... but its nearly to 20N !!

which according to the nHC forecast should not occur till 6z

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 84.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW

[ozonepete]

Latest

Hi Hurakan, and thanks for this latest. Can you explain why those two microwave satellites (there's one just before yours) at the same frequency and time have two different images?

its the intensity used .. same frequency less power ...

Thanks, Aric. Now that you said that, I can see it by comparing the two.

But where do you get the higher power image?

[gatorcane]

definitely ahead of the NHC forecast points already, she's starting to get her move on now....

[HURAKAN]

536
WTNT31 KNHC 072347
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

...IDA TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER IT ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42056 IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.5N 84.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

[KWT]

Structure has improved so its quite possible that hurricane hunters will find hurricane strength winds, remember recon went into Ida when it started to degrade a little, but that has since reversed again it seems.
nw quadrant strongest in terms of convection still, as models were progging.

[Bocadude85]

Cloud tops have warmed a little and it does appear to be moving a hair west of due north.

Still looks due north to me

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.5N 84.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

[Sanibel]

The damage reports from Nicaragua show what even a category 1 storm can do if it bursting. Especially an RI event landfall.