ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[LSU2001]

Can't respond to you Ivan I may be banned
Heck of a game and I don't know who to root for in the SECCG.
But tonight I am feeling Geaux Gators

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm... Looks like symmetry may be starting to degrade, even though convection is increasing. If the forward speed keeps increasing, as it looks likely, Ida may have reached its peak. I'm not sure at all, but it's really losing its symmetry in the last few images. I can also see the NNW movement now, finally.

looks pretty round too me now..

LOL. I sure jumped off the bandwagon too quick. I guess I'm getting that weird double vision from staring at every loop until my eyes glaze over...

if thats not a eyewall .. i must be blind.. ( no pun lol )

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

[Aric Dunn]

WOW this so a hurricane.. that is very impressive!! finally the cuban radar loaded !! nearly closed eyewall but it may just be that the radar cant see to the other side right now..

[ozonepete]

LOL. I sure jumped off the bandwagon too quick. I guess I'm getting that weird double vision from staring at every loop until my eyes glaze over...

if thats not a eyewall .. i must be blind.. ( no pun lol )

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

Yeah, looks like the eye is finally coming. Looks like it might go right up the middle of the Yucatan Channel.

[Aric Dunn]

LOL. I sure jumped off the bandwagon too quick. I guess I'm getting that weird double vision from staring at every loop until my eyes glaze over...

if thats not a eyewall .. i must be blind.. ( no pun lol )

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

Yeah, looks like the eye is finally coming. Looks like it might go right up the middle of the Yucatan Channel.

just dont confuse all that convection rotating to the west side as the motion of the storm... block most of it out and watch the center move..

[ozonepete]

And you are most likely right, Aric, that the eye is closed. The radar can't "see" through the tall thunderstorms to the south side of the eyewall. I'd bet the rent this has closed off. Just wondering when we'll see it on the IR. Although I'm well aware that too much southerly shear at high levels could keep the eye obscured by high clouds.

[Aric Dunn]

And you are most likely right, Aric, that the eye is closed. The radar can't "see" through the tall thunderstorms to the south side of the eyewall. I'd bet the rent this has closed off. Just wondering when we'll see it on the IR. Although I'm well aware that too much southerly shear at high levels could keep the eye obscured by high clouds.

exactly.. humberto never developed a eye do to the Southerly shear...

[cycloneye]

Recon will tell us what is really there in less than 5 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure at the nearby bouy is down to 999 or so ..
winds are still going up there another hour or 2 and it should make its closest approach to the bouy..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (CST) 5-day plot - 1-Minute Wind Speed WSPD 5-day plot - 1-Minute Wind Direction WDIR
6:20 pm 47.0 kts NE ( 40 deg true )

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon will tell us what is really there in less than 5 hours.

I think the 5 hour wait is going to kill some of us though! lol Will be interesting to see what they find I sure can't wait. I have an idea You can call them up and order them to fly sooner! lol j/k

[Aric Dunn]

Recon will tell us what is really there in less than 5 hours.

I think the 5 hour wait is going to kill some of us though! lol Will be interesting to see what they find I sure can't wait. I have an idea You can call them up and order them to fly sooner! lol j/k

we should just be like MACgyver .... just give me a boat, some duck-tape, and a lighter... oh and a anemometer .. then we will be well on our way.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

I still say western tip of cuba will see part of the eye wall..

[somethingfunny]

Regarding these intense landfalls being predicted by the models, is there a way to tell if the landfall is predicted to be as a tropical system or an extratropical system? Will it mean much of a difference in terms of storm surge?

[ozonepete]

I still say western tip of cuba will see part of the eye wall..

I'm on board with that.

[ozonepete]

Recon will tell us what is really there in less than 5 hours.

I think the 5 hour wait is going to kill some of us though! lol Will be interesting to see what they find I sure can't wait. I have an idea You can call them up and order them to fly sooner! lol j/k

It's killin' me. It's killing my social life.

[Aric Dunn]

I still say western tip of cuba will see part of the eye wall..

I'm on board with that.

just did some over lay stuff and it has past 20 N its at about 20.2 north now and nearly 85 west probably 84.7 or so ..

[jabber]

If this was a month ago.... watch out..... now not so much the more north the weaker ida will be.

[Blown Away]

I still say western tip of cuba will see part of the eye wall..

It's gonna be close, but Ida would have to stop the NNW movement to hit that tip.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

If this was a month ago.... watch out..... now not so much the more north the weaker ida will be.

Are you sure about that? You are prob. right but I remember many storms through the past several years that just when we thought we had tracking and forecasting down to a science Nature showed us just how little we truely know.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear is still decreasing .. ahead of it..

i have notice the upper low over the eastern pacific halt its eastward progression if that the case the forecast may improve..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... wg8sht.GIF