ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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Aric Dunn
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#2241 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:16 pm

last few images showing a clear and well defined western and NW eyewall.. and you can start to see the eastern portion..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2242 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:17 pm

Any wagers on recon for winds.. I say 80 +
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon=Plane is flying towards Ida

#2243 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:18 pm

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 03:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 01

Observation Time: Sunday, 3:12Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.7N 89.4W
Location: 97 miles (155 km) to the SSE (156°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 8,230 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 220° at 32 knots (From the SW at ~ 36.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -27°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -28°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
D-value: 42 geopotential meters
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Re:

#2244 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Any wagers on recon for winds.. I say 80 +


Yea I was guessing 80-85 an hour and a half ago in chat. I think that still holds.
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#2245 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:20 pm

Image
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#2246 Postby jinftl » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:20 pm

Just so no one gets confused by the discussion here....the discussion is a general one....there is no forecast that is calling for Ida to have 115 mph winds...either as a hurricane or extratropical system...as she approaches the Gulf Coast and Florida. The current forecast calls for a 50 mph tropical storm transitioning into an equally squally extratropical low pressure late Tuesday. The biggest threats could be from coastal flooding and beach erosion in susceptible areas like the Florida Big Bend.

The probability of hurricane force winds during the next 5 days is under 5% for the entire U.S.

Image

RNGR wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote: Ok like I said I could be wrong. All I know is what I was told but I guess I was told inaccurate information. So could a extratropical system have 115mph winds then?
Some extremely intense (sub 950MB) north Atlantic gales have had sustained winds approaching 100 knots. I don't keep tabs on them nearly as close, but 90-100 knots would be pretty rare, and probably be close to the upper limit of intensity for a gale.


looking at the windfield of Ida per predictions from the models, it looks like they think she will be tropical. the highest winds tightly wrapped around the center. and i would think that a gale of that strength would be nearly impossible this far south. the 93' storm was probably a 1000 year event, though im just guessing at that one. lol
Last edited by jinftl on Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon=Plane is flying towards Ida

#2247 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:22 pm

OB 5

URNT15 KNHC 080318
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 05 20091108
031030 2848N 08929W 3443 08647 0422 -267 +999 223030 031 005 000 01
031100 2846N 08928W 3443 08653 0420 -266 +999 224033 035 002 000 05
031130 2844N 08927W 3441 08650 0420 -265 -340 221033 034 008 000 05
031200 2842N 08926W 3442 08649 0419 -265 -337 222031 031 014 000 03
031230 2840N 08925W 3443 08650 0421 -265 -311 224031 032 016 000 00
031300 2838N 08924W 3443 08650 0422 -265 -284 223031 031 017 000 00
031330 2836N 08923W 3443 08654 0422 -265 -301 220029 031 016 001 00
031400 2834N 08922W 3442 08658 0423 -265 -291 216027 027 019 001 00
031430 2832N 08921W 3443 08648 0423 -265 -302 217027 027 019 001 00
031500 2831N 08920W 3445 08649 0426 -265 -303 215026 027 023 000 00
031530 2829N 08919W 3442 08654 0426 -265 -302 212027 027 023 000 03
031600 2827N 08918W 3441 08661 0425 -265 -305 214027 027 023 000 00
031630 2825N 08917W 3445 08646 0425 -265 -297 214028 028 021 000 00
031700 2823N 08916W 3442 08656 0424 -264 -299 215028 028 021 000 00
031730 2821N 08915W 3442 08656 0425 -260 -298 214026 027 020 000 00
031800 2819N 08914W 3443 08659 0426 -260 -288 212025 025 022 000 00
031830 2819N 08914W 3443 08659 0428 -260 -283 212025 027 019 001 03
031900 2815N 08912W 3443 08658 0427 -260 -277 209028 029 023 000 03
031930 2813N 08911W 3442 08660 0428 -260 -271 208027 028 022 000 00
032000 2811N 08911W 3441 08657 0426 -260 -275 215025 026 021 000 00
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Re:

#2248 Postby ozonepete » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Any wagers on recon for winds.. I say 80 +


I'm in at 80.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#2249 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:23 pm

I've never seen a 70mph tropical storm with such an active tight eye...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon=Plane is flying towards Ida

#2250 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:24 pm

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 03:18Z
Date: November 8, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 05
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:10:30 28.800N 89.483W 344.3 mb 8,647 m - From 223° (SW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 5 kts 0 mm/hr
03:11:00 28.767N 89.467W 344.3 mb 8,653 m - From 224° (SW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 2 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:11:30 28.733N 89.450W 344.1 mb 8,650 m - From 221° (SW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 8 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:12:00 28.700N 89.433W 344.2 mb 8,649 m - From 222° (SW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 14 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:12:30 28.667N 89.417W 344.3 mb 8,650 m - From 224° (SW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 16 kts 0 mm/hr
03:13:00 28.633N 89.400W 344.3 mb 8,650 m - From 223° (SW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 17 kts 0 mm/hr
03:13:30 28.600N 89.383W 344.3 mb 8,654 m - From 220° (SW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 16 kts 1 mm/hr
03:14:00 28.567N 89.367W 344.2 mb 8,658 m - From 216° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 19 kts 1 mm/hr
03:14:30 28.533N 89.350W 344.3 mb 8,648 m - From 217° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 19 kts 1 mm/hr
03:15:00 28.517N 89.333W 344.5 mb 8,649 m - From 215° (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
03:15:30 28.483N 89.317W 344.2 mb 8,654 m - From 212° (SSW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 23 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:16:00 28.450N 89.300W 344.1 mb 8,661 m - From 214° (SW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
03:16:30 28.417N 89.283W 344.5 mb 8,646 m - From 214° (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 21 kts 0 mm/hr
03:17:00 28.383N 89.267W 344.2 mb 8,656 m - From 215° (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 21 kts 0 mm/hr
03:17:30 28.350N 89.250W 344.2 mb 8,656 m - From 214° (SW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 20 kts 0 mm/hr
03:18:00 28.317N 89.233W 344.3 mb 8,659 m - From 212° (SSW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 22 kts 0 mm/hr
03:18:30 28.317N 89.233W 344.3 mb 8,659 m - From 212° (SSW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 19 kts* 1 mm/hr*
03:19:00 28.250N 89.200W 344.3 mb 8,658 m - From 209° (SSW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 23 kts* 0 mm/hr*
03:19:30 28.217N 89.183W 344.2 mb 8,660 m - From 208° (SSW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 22 kts 0 mm/hr
03:20:00 28.183N 89.183W 344.1 mb 8,657 m - From 215° (SW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 21 kts 0 mm/hr
At 03:10:30Z (first observation), the observation was 88 miles (142 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
At 03:20:00Z (last observation), the observation was 135 miles (217 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
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#2251 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:24 pm

one note about the models

they have the storm moving unreasonably slow during the first 12 hours and have been well too slow for the last couple of days. They seem to have a south bias with this system
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#2252 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:25 pm

Sanibel wrote:I've never seen a 70mph tropical storm with such an active tight eye...

I have ... its when the NHC waits for recon to get out there.. lol :P
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#2253 Postby ozonepete » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Sanibel wrote:I've never seen a 70mph tropical storm with such an active tight eye...

I have ... its when the NHC waits for recon to get out there.. lol :P


LOL. That's just really funny.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#2254 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:26 pm

Im sorry like i said before..that is an EYE .. for sure now.. its and EYE
no more words needed just look http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Image
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#2255 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:27 pm

The suspense keeps building as the plane gets closer,now in the central GOM.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA

#2256 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:27 pm

This is probably peak. Following that last black burst.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Recon=Plane is flying towards Ida

#2257 Postby RattleMan » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:28 pm

And a test of Ob 5 from my decoder:

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
03:10:30z   28°48'N   89°29'W   344.3 hPa   8647m   1042.2 hPa   -26.7°C   -----   223° @ 30kt     31kt   5kt   0mm   ?:Temp/dew
03:11:00z   28°46'N   89°28'W   344.3 hPa   8653m   1042.0 hPa   -26.6°C   -----   224° @ 33kt     35kt   2kt   0mm   ?:T/Td/SFMR
03:11:30z   28°44'N   89°27'W   344.1 hPa   8650m   1042.0 hPa   -26.5°C   -34°C   221° @ 33kt     34kt   8kt   0mm   ?:T/Td/SFMR
03:12:00z   28°42'N   89°26'W   344.2 hPa   8649m   1041.9 hPa   -26.5°C   -33.7°C   222° @ 31kt     31kt   14kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
03:12:30z   28°40'N   89°25'W   344.3 hPa   8650m   1042.1 hPa   -26.5°C   -31.1°C   224° @ 31kt     32kt   16kt   0mm   OK
03:13:00z   28°38'N   89°24'W   344.3 hPa   8650m   1042.2 hPa   -26.5°C   -28.4°C   223° @ 31kt     31kt   17kt   0mm   OK
03:13:30z   28°36'N   89°23'W   344.3 hPa   8654m   1042.2 hPa   -26.5°C   -30.1°C   220° @ 29kt     31kt   16kt   1mm   OK
03:14:00z   28°34'N   89°22'W   344.2 hPa   8658m   1042.3 hPa   -26.5°C   -29.1°C   216° @ 27kt     27kt   19kt   1mm   OK
03:14:30z   28°32'N   89°21'W   344.3 hPa   8648m   1042.3 hPa   -26.5°C   -30.2°C   217° @ 27kt     27kt   19kt   1mm   OK
03:15:00z   28°31'N   89°20'W   344.5 hPa   8649m   1042.6 hPa   -26.5°C   -30.3°C   215° @ 26kt     27kt   23kt   0mm   OK
03:15:30z   28°29'N   89°19'W   344.2 hPa   8654m   1042.6 hPa   -26.5°C   -30.2°C   212° @ 27kt     27kt   23kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
03:16:00z   28°27'N   89°18'W   344.1 hPa   8661m   1042.5 hPa   -26.5°C   -30.5°C   214° @ 27kt     27kt   23kt   0mm   OK
03:16:30z   28°25'N   89°17'W   344.5 hPa   8646m   1042.5 hPa   -26.5°C   -29.7°C   214° @ 28kt     28kt   21kt   0mm   OK
03:17:00z   28°23'N   89°16'W   344.2 hPa   8656m   1042.4 hPa   -26.4°C   -29.9°C   215° @ 28kt     28kt   21kt   0mm   OK
03:17:30z   28°21'N   89°15'W   344.2 hPa   8656m   1042.5 hPa   -26°C   -29.8°C   214° @ 26kt     27kt   20kt   0mm   OK
03:18:00z   28°19'N   89°14'W   344.3 hPa   8659m   1042.6 hPa   -26°C   -28.8°C   212° @ 25kt     25kt   22kt   0mm   OK
03:18:30z   28°19'N   89°14'W   344.3 hPa   8659m   1042.8 hPa   -26°C   -28.3°C   212° @ 25kt     27kt   19kt   1mm   ?:SFMR
03:19:00z   28°15'N   89°12'W   344.3 hPa   8658m   1042.7 hPa   -26°C   -27.7°C   209° @ 28kt     29kt   23kt   0mm   ?:SFMR
03:19:30z   28°13'N   89°11'W   344.2 hPa   8660m   1042.8 hPa   -26°C   -27.1°C   208° @ 27kt     28kt   22kt   0mm   OK
03:20:00z   28°11'N   89°11'W   344.1 hPa   8657m   1042.6 hPa   -26°C   -27.5°C   215° @ 25kt     26kt   21kt   0mm   OK

Max:   28°48'N   89°29'W   344.5 hPa   8661m   1042.8 hPa   -26°C   -27.1°C   33kt   35kt   23kt   1mm   
Min:   28°11'N   89°11'W   344.1 hPa   8646m   1041.9 hPa   -26.7°C   -34°C   25kt   25kt   2kt   0mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   344.3 hPa   8654m   1042.4 hPa   -26.4°C   -29.8°C   28kt   29kt   18kt   0mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   
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#2258 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:28 pm

I said it before when the convection in all levels begins to rotate like that watch out.. cause its about to go bazurk... :P
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM IDA - Models

#2259 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:29 pm

jinftl wrote:Just so no one gets confused by the discussion here....the discussion is a general one....there is no forecast that is calling for Ida to have 115 mph winds...either as a hurricane or extratropical system...as she approaches the Gulf Coast and Florida. The current forecast calls for a 50 mph tropical storm transitioning into an equally squally extratropical low pressure late Tuesday. The biggest threats could be from coastal flooding and beach erosion in susceptible areas like the Florida Big Bend.


Its not a general discussion. Yes the official forecast doesn't have Ida getting to cat 3 but this isn't the thread for official forecasts. This is the model discussion which some of the models do show Ida getting to be a cat 3.
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#2260 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 07, 2009 10:30 pm

Image
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