ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think this will easily be a high end category 2 by tomorrow morning
heat content is insane in the NW Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

I dont see it much .. maybe down to 10mph and no wnw motion..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I'm tired and I know radar can be deceptive with regards to motion, but you still see NNW when you look at the radar and satellite? The satellite shows a west jump in the last few frames.

nope not much again .. its mostly the convection wraping around.. you have to block that out a watch a fixed point.. still NNW overall .. with maybe a slight slowdown to 10mph..

[LaBreeze]

What about the possibility of Ida coming close to land and then making that "turn" to the SE? Is this scenario still in the mix? If so, what happens then?

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 85.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

[Aric Dunn]

they have pressure down to 980..

[AdamFirst]

Looks like it has been jogging WNW.

[Evil Jeremy]

What about the possibility of Ida coming close to land and then making that "turn" to the SE? Is this scenario still in the mix? If so, what happens then?

That is still a possibility, though it wouldn't make much difference. Ida would be extratropical and disappearing into thin air. There won't be much of anything left to turn SE.

[attallaman]

you go Patrick.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Yeah Rock, the forecast has sped up so much, it has caught a lot of people of guard.

Ivan did you make it to Sam's?

[BigA]

Both the GFDL and HWRF show the storm reaching the coast more intact than in previous runs

[Sanibel]

I'm guessing conditions allow only a maximum additional 15mph in intensity from here. That doesn't mean it will though.

[HURAKAN]

[drezee]

Interesting previous center estimate was 20.1N 84.6W at 1000pm...wish they would do a updated discussion...I think they believe the center reformed W or their estimate was way off...

[LaBreeze]

Is the WNW jog actually taking place or just a wobble?

[CrazyC83]

Interesting previous center estimate was 20.1N 84.6W at 1000pm...wish they would do a updated discussion...I think they believe the center reformed W or their estimate was way off...

Yeah, they probably should have done a Special Advisory package but I guess they didn't see enough new information/change to warrant such.

[Blown Away]

I dont see it much .. maybe down to 10mph and no wnw motion..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I'm tired and I know radar can be deceptive with regards to motion, but you still see NNW when you look at the radar and satellite? The satellite shows a west jump in the last few frames.

nope not much again .. its mostly the convection wraping around.. you have to block that out a watch a fixed point.. still NNW overall .. with maybe a slight slowdown to 10mph..

IMO, if you extrapolate that radar, Ida will landfall at Cancun if she maintains the current motion. I agree this WNW wobble/motion may be temporary and Ida may resume the northerly motion and average back to NNW.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting previous center estimate was 20.1N 84.6W at 1000pm...wish they would do a updated discussion...I think they believe the center reformed W or their estimate was way off...

the estimate was probably off that happens all the time..

[Sanibel]

IMO, if you extrapolate that radar, Ida will landfall at Cancun if she maintains the current motion. I agree this WNW wobble/motion may be temporary and Ida may resume the northerly motion and average back to NNW.

I think that's what it will do. I doubt NHC missed a huge track change.


GFDL is right on top of this swerve.

[Evil Jeremy]

Finally. For once, Ida is left of the cone's center, not right of it. Finally.

[deltadog03]

BTW, a huge new burst going up very near the center right now on IR.

[Aric Dunn]

exactly, orverall motion has been NNW .. but yeah they always wabble .. was not talking about that